【Next week's USD/JPY】FRB and the BOJ clash! Why I don’t buy immediately after the announcement?
Next week the USD/JPY may move a lot, but I won’t buy right after the announcement!
This week, USD/JPY plunged from the 158 level to the 156 level.
And next week there are important meetings in the United States and Japan to set interest rates.
? What exactly is interest?
In simple terms, it is the rate of interest paid when borrowing money.
Generally,
When US interest rates rise → the dollar tends to be bought
When Japanese interest rates rise → the yen tends to be bought
However, actual market movements depend on the surprise versus expectation, so it doesn’t always move that way.
? Three geniuses discuss!
? A: Ultra-optimistic
“Important announcements are a big opportunity! If it rises quickly, buying immediately to target profits is advantageous!”
? B: Ultra-cautious
“Wait! Right after the announcement, price movement is volatile. It can move against expectations, and you may not have time to cut losses!”
? C: A different perspective
“Do we even need to take the initial move? After things calm down, we can still look for opportunities, right?”
I agree with C.
? There is actually a painful lesson from the past
Previously, I traded gold during the US employment statistics release.
Even though I set a stop loss, due to sudden price moves my orders weren’t executed at the planned price, and my account balance went negative.
Afterwards, the balance returned to zero, but it was a big lesson.
“Even if you set a stop loss, it doesn’t guarantee you’ll exit at that price.”
That incident made me realize the fear of important announcements.
✅ My rules for next week
① Do not latch onto moves immediately after the announcement
② Confirm uptrends on 15-minute and 5-minute charts
③ Wait for a pullback on the 1-minute chart
④ Decide your stop-loss level before buying
⑤ If conditions aren’t met, do nothing
? Finally
When you see a market moving a lot, you feel you don’t want to miss the chance.
But I don’t aim to win every move.
The most important thing in FX is not to win big, but to survive no matter what.
Next week, I’ll stay calm and wait until I have a favorable long setup.
Do you trade immediately after important announcements, or do you wait until things settle?