Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market Macro & Industry Weekly October Week 4
TSE Prime Macro & Industry Weekly
Macro factors this weekAs of October 23
+ meaning: Interest rate up / Yen depreciation / Economy expanding / Geopolitics risk rising / Resources rising. 0 is the 1-year average.
※ Some factors changed from the previous issue (Economy -0.05 → -0.13, Resources +0.99 → +1.12). After publishing the previous issue, late-release indicators (monthly indicators or US indicators released 1–2 business days late) were included, so the prior week's values were recalculated. The week-on-week changes and the “previous week” ranking in industry rankings are also based on recalculated values.
This week’s summary
The factor that moved the most this week wasInterest rateto +0.37 from +0.92 (−0.55), indicating a movement toward lower rates.
Economy and geopolitics are almost unchanged from last week (changes under 0.10).
Notably large is Resources +1.27 (resource price rise).
Top and bottom industry scores areOil & coal products, Mining, Wholesale, with the bottom in Air transportation, Electric utilities, Pulp & paper.
Industries that moved by three or more ranks: Service industry 20 → 14 (mainly due to interest rates), Information & communications 20 → 14 (mainly due to interest rates), Pharmaceuticals 10 → 6 (mainly due to interest rates), Electrical machinery 16 → 22 (mainly due to yen depreciation), Chemicals 23 → 27 (mainly due to interest rates), Transportation equipment 14 → 17 (mainly due to yen depreciation).
The series with movements larger than usual in a week (1σ or more) is US 10-year real yield (TIPS) −0.10 pt (−1.3σ).
Industry score rankings33 industries
| Rank | Industry | Number of stocks | Score | −2 0 +2 | Week-on-week | Change | Main factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oil & coal products | 5 | +1.40 | 2nd | ↑1 | Resources up | |
| 1 | Mining | 4 | +1.40 | 2nd | ↑1 | Resources up | |
| 3 | Wholesale | 120 | +1.32 | 1st | ↓2 | Interest rates down | |
| 4 | Nonferrous metals | 20 | +1.18 | 4th | → | Resources up | |
| 5 | Steel | 20 | +0.70 | 5th | → | Yen depreciation down | |
| 6 | Pharmaceuticals | 31 | +0.24 | 10th | ↑4 | Interest rates up | |
| 7 | Machinery | 111 | +0.21 | 8th | ↑1 | Yen depreciation down | |
| 8 | Insurance | 11 | +0.05 | 6th | ↓2 | Interest rates down | |
| 8 | Banking | 69 | +0.05 | 6th | ↓2 | Interest rates down | |
| 10 | Precision machinery | 27 | -0.05 | 12th | ↑2 | Yen depreciation down | |
| 11 | Other financials | 21 | -0.09 | 11th | → | Interest rates down | |
| 12 | Marine transportation | 5 | -0.10 | 9th | ↓3 | Yen depreciation down | |
| 13 | Securities & commodity futures | 19 | -0.31 | 13th | → | Interest rates down | |
| 14 | Services | 143 | -0.35 | 20th | ↑6 | Interest rates up | |
| 14 | Information & communication | 164 | -0.35 | 20th | ↑6 | Interest rates up | |
| 16 | Rubber products | 10 | -0.35 | 15th | ↓1 | Yen depreciation down | |
| 17 | Transportation equipment | 38 | -0.44 | 14th | ↓3 | Yen depreciation down | |
| 18 | Other products | 37 | -0.51 | 17th | ↓1 | Interest rates up | |
| 18 | Glass & stone products | 22 | -0.51 | 17th | ↓1 | Interest rates up | |
| 18 | Metal products | 26 | -0.51 | 17th | ↓1 | Interest rates up | |
| 21 | Food products | 68 | -0.55 | 22nd | ↑1 | Interest rates up | |
| 22 | Electrical machinery | 123 | -0.58 | 16th | ↓6 | Yen depreciation down | |
| 23 | Fisheries & agriculture | 6 | -0.60 | 26th | ↑3 | Interest rates up | |
| 24 | Construction | 70 | -0.66 | 27th | ↑3 | Interest rates up | |
| 25 | Warehousing & transportation | 9 | -0.67 | 24th | ↓1 | Interest rates up | |
| 25 | Textiles | 17 | -0.67 | 24th | ↓1 | Interest rates up | |
| 27 | Chemicals | 115 | -0.74 | 23rd | ↓4 | Interest rates up | |
| 28 | Retailing | 129 | -0.83 | 28th | → | Interest rates up | |
| 29 | Land transportation | 36 | -0.97 | 30th | ↑1 | Interest rates up | |
| 30 | Real estate | 48 | -0.98 | 29th | ↓1 | Interest rates up | |
| 31 | Pulp & paper | 10 | -1.25 | 31st | → | Interest rates up | |
| 32 | Electricity & gas | 22 | -1.67 | 33rd | ↑1 | Interest rates up | |
| 33 | Air transportation | 2 | -1.69 | 32nd | ↓1 | Yen depreciation up |
Scores range from −2 to +2. A plus indicates favorable conditions in the current market; a minus indicates headwinds. The number of stocks represents the number of Prime stocks in that industry. The top 5 and bottom 5 are color-highlighted. Up arrows in main factors indicate the wind at your back increased; down arrows indicate it decreased.
Industries with movement this weekDaily, in order of biggest change
| Series | Value | Weekly Change | Compared to usual | Effective factors | Date of value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. 10-year real yield (TIPS) | 2.64 | -0.10pt | -1.3σ | Rates − | 10/22 |
| U.S. High yield spread | 3.40 | +0.09pt | +0.8σ | Economy − | 10/22 |
| USD/JPY | 156.81 | -0.84% | Yen depreciation − | 10/23 | |
| U.S. yield curve (10y-2y) | 0.31 | -0.04pt | Rates − | 10/23 | |
| WTI crude | 103.44 | +2.00% | Resources + | 10/23 | |
| VIX | 19.45 | -2.70% | Geopolitics − | 10/23 |
Compared to usual means how many times a week’s change is larger than the usual weekly change over the past year. Values with |σ| > 1 are bolded. For interest rates and spreads, changes are shown as difference (pt = percentage points). U.S. series are time-delayed by 1–2 business days, so the value dates are included.
Monthly seriesMost recent published values
| Series | Value | MoM change | Effective factors | Target month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan long-term interest rate (10-year) | 3.05 | +0.11 | Rates + | 2026-09 |
| Real effective yen rate (BIS) | 65.04 | -0.38 | Yen depreciation + | 2026-07 |
| OECD Leading indicator Japan | 100.35 | +0.02 | Economy + | 2026-09 |
| OECD Leading indicator US | 101.00 | +0.05 | Economy + | 2026-09 |
| OECD Leading indicator China | 97.41 | -0.23 | Economy − | 2026-09 |
| U.S. Industrial production (YoY) | 2.25 | +0.63 | Economy + | 2026-09 |
| Geopolitics risk index (GPR) | 146.21 | +20.59 | Geopolitics + | 2026-09 |
| Copper (LME) | 14,473.06 | +141.79 | Resources + | 2026-09 |
| U.S. CPI (YoY) | 3.72 | +0.36 | Resources + | 2026-09 |
Monthly series take 1–3 months to publish. Weekly factor movements mainly come from daily series.
Factor trendsLast 6 weeks, as of Friday of each week
| Factor | 9/18 | 9/25 | 10/02 | 10/09 | 10/16 | 10/23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest rates | +0.57 | +1.09 | +1.46 | +1.42 | +0.92 | +0.37 |
| Yen depreciation | +0.24 | +0.64 | +0.76 | +1.01 | +0.70 | +0.42 |
| Economic activity | +0.52 | +0.19 | +0.05 | +0.04 | -0.13 | -0.14 |
| Geopolitics | -0.22 | -0.17 | -0.11 | -0.25 | +0.54 | +0.45 |
| Resources | +1.33 | +1.12 | +1.00 | +0.86 | +1.12 | +1.27 |