【Nikkei 225 Futures】From morning plunge to afternoon strong rebound! Was it dangerous if you were short?｜Drive30 Market Verification 10/23
October 23, 2026 (Friday) | Nikkei 225 Futures Mini
In the afternoona strong rebound.
And in the evening, it fell again.
A day that makes you think, "What if I had sold in the morning?"
A market that cannot be decided by the morning direction alone. Reflecting on the difficulty of trading decisions from today's price movements.
No trading conditions were satisfied.
01｜How did the morning market move?
This morning, Nikkei 225 Futures Mini fluctuated significantly.
| Morning 30-minute opening price | 62,200 |
| Morning 30-minute high | 62,345 |
| Morning 30-minute low | 61,615 |
| Morning 30-minute close | 62,130 |
Note: This is a post-reference calculation based on the saved 1-minute chart from Furai. The first bar could not be confirmed as fully complete.
The morning 30-minute opening price was 62,200 and the closing price was 62,130. A drop of 70 points net.
However, the intramorning low reached 61,615. It did not move downward in one direction; there were large ups and downs.
02｜Is SELL BIAS a sell signal?
BIAS is a word that clearly indicates whether price movement was upward or downward.
Even if SELL BIAS appears, it does not automatically mean to sell.
In Drive30, market direction and trading decisions are treated separately.
In this case, the post-reference calculation based on saved prices showed a hold-off for both buying and selling.
03｜In the afternoon, a sharp rebound
In the afternoonreversed to an upside direction.
In the same day's kabu Station 5-minute chart, after a large drop in the morning, it recovered in the late morning and rose to the high 63,000s in the afternoon.
Just because it fell in the morning does not mean it will keep falling thereafter.
And in the evening the selling pressure became dominant again, and around 18:26 the price dropped to around the 62,300 yen range.
There was a large directional change with declines, rebounds, and再 declines within the day.
04｜What if you had sold in the morning?
If you only looked at the morning decline, there may have been moments where you felt, "Wouldn't it be better to sell now?"
If you held a short position, the big rebound in the afternoon could have been a rough price action.
This is a hypothetical scenario. It does not indicate actual orders, executions, or profit/loss.
※ This is a hypothetical discussion. It does not show actual orders, executions, or P/L.
05｜Was the lack of a sell signal a failure?
When you look at the market later, you want to capture the morning decline and the afternoon rebound effectively.
However, Drive30 does not change trading direction after the fact by looking at price movements.
Whether the day meets the conditions or not, evaluate with the same rules. Consistency builds reliability in verification.
Today’s formal automated verdict is INVALID. Even if the saved data’s post-reference calculation indicates hold-off, it is not counted as an official trading-suspend record or loss-avoidance record.
06｜Today's results summary
| Morning reference direction | SELL BIAS |
| From opening to closing in the morning | −70pt |
| Post-reference evaluation | Recommended to hold off |
| Contribution according to reference calculation | 0pt equivalent |
| Official automated verdict | INVALID |
Direction in the morning alone cannot determine the day's market.
Today’s market reminded us again of that difficulty. Moving forward, we will continue to verify price movements and trading decisions using the same criteria.
Date: 2026-10-23
Subject: Nikkei 225 Futures Mini - December 2026 contract
The morning price movement is an independent post-reference evaluation calculated from kabu Station 1-minute footages saved by Furai.
There was partial data in the 08:45 bar on the day, and automatic verdict completion did not occur within the designated time. Therefore the official buy/sell signal is INVALID. The article’s reference result is not included in the official Forward performance.
The afternoon and evening price movements are based on the day's kabu Station 5-minute screen.
Actual orders, fills, and realized P/L were not confirmed. This article provides market verification information and does not guarantee future profits.
Fixed Rules. Transparent Results.