[10/23 Fri] Dollar/Yen Morning Fixed Observation — The Star at 08:30 Domestic Core CPI (YoY) in Japan★★
This is the morning record for Friday, October 23. Today's highlight is 08:30 Nationwide Core CPI (YoY)★★. The current USD/JPY price is 156.74 yen, and the expected range is viewed as 156.22 to 157.78 yen.
The answer for the previous trading day was incorrect. Below, I will place the indicators, charts, and scenarios in order.
First 60 seconds | Today’s Economic Indicators
Today’s Economic Indicators (10/23 8:30 to next 8:29 JST)
Today is a Goto day (advance because the 25th is Sunday).There is a tendency for dollar buying demand toward the 9:55 fix.
Europe moves to winter time (from 10/25. Indicator times are one hour later)
UK moves to winter time (from 10/25. Indicator times are one hour later)
| Time (JST) | Country | Indicator | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 |  | Nationwide Core CPI (YoY) | ★★ | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| 09:30 | | Manufacturing PMI (Flash) | ★ | 54.5 | 54.1 |
| 15:00 |  | Retail Sales (MoM) | ★★ | -0.1% | 0.5% |
| 16:15 |  | French Manufacturing PMI (Flash) | ★★ | 50.5 | 50.3 |
| 16:15 | | French Services PMI (Flash) | ★★ | 50.7 | 51.4 |
| 16:30 | | German Manufacturing PMI (Flash) | ★★ | 53.5 | 53.8 |
| 16:30 | | German Services PMI (Flash) | ★★ | 52.5 | 52.9 |
| 17:00 | | Manufacturing PMI (Flash) | ★ | 52.7 | 52.7 |
| 17:00 | | Services PMI (Flash) | ★ | 52.6 | 53.0 |
| 17:30 | | Manufacturing PMI (Flash) | ★★ | 51.8 | 52.0 |
| 17:30 | | Services PMI (Flash) | ★★ | 51.8 | 51.7 |
| 22:00 | | Belgium NBB Business Climate | ★ | -11.8 | -12.1 |
| 22:45 |  | Manufacturing PMI (Flash) | ★★ | 55.4 | 57.0 |
| 22:45 | | Services PMI (Flash) | ★★ | 57.9 | 58.7 |
| 23:00 | | University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index - Final | ★★ | 46.3 | 46.3 |
| 23:00 | | University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations - Final | ★★ | — | 4.7% |
This is what moves today
The nationwide core CPI is expected at 2.1% vs the prior 1.7%, and the market has largely priced in some acceleration in growth. If the actual figures beat expectations, yen strength is likely; if they miss, yen weakness is likely. This will be a key factor for BOJ rate hike considerations, as whether the 2% target continues matters, and it will also impact USD/JPY. Today is also a moved-up Goto day, so it’s a period where movement toward the 9:55 fix tends to align.
USD/JPY: Current Position
Current Value156.74 (Previous business day close 156.76 / Day-on-day -1.37)
Range to Consider156.22 (Pivot S1) ~ 157.78 (Pivot R1)
BiasA range between 156.22 and 157.78. The direction will likely wait for Japanese data after 08:30.
AlternateBreak above 157.78 to test 158.53 / Break below 156.22 to 155.67
Daily Chart: Environment
The daily chart is consolidating (MAs interweaving) with no clear arrangement. Three MAs are intertwined, so no clear direction. The current value of 156.74 is below MA20 at 157.91, indicating a close below MA20 on a closing basis. The upper limit is detected at 158.99, the lower at 155.13. In a rebound from 159.03 to 156.69, the 0.382 retracement is around 157.58 and the 0.5 retracement is around 157.86, levels that are often watched as key turning points. ATR14 is 79 pips.
Key Lines on the 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart also shows MAs crossing (no clear arrangement), with the upper levels at 157.71 and 158.51, and the lower levels at 156.41 and 154.75. The downward trend line starting from 10/14, not 9/24, sits near 158.34 this morning. The rebound from 158.60 to 156.69 retraces 0.382 to 157.42 and 0.618 to 157.87, often aligning with daily chart levels.
Connecting Indicators and Charts
The focus is on the 08:30 nationwide core CPI (YoY). Before the release, the range is likely to hold between 156.22 and 157.78, with a tendency to bounce around pivot P (157.23). If the result breaks above 157.78, a test of 158.53 is possible; if it breaks below 156.22, a move toward 155.67 could occur. In the evening, European PMI data will continue.
Also in the Video | USD/JPY Morning Fixed Observation
Answer for the Previous Trading Day
It was incorrect. The expected range was 157.74–158.67, but the close fell markedly to 156.76 on the lower end. A 156-pip bearish candle suggests the lower bound was read too conservatively ^^;
Yesterday’s US initial jobless claims were 194K versus forecast 200K. After the release, USD/JPY moved about 12 pips in 15 minutes and about 26 pips in an hour, with both directions showing gains.
Validation Data
The average USD/JPY price range one hour after the US CPI release (38 occasions) is 24 pips, and the probability that the initial direction persists one hour later is 63%. About six in ten, which is somewhat higher than I would have guessed ^^
The rate of up days following a break below MA20 in the previous day (past 10 years, 147 occasions) was 49%, and the average move was -6 pips. It’s almost a five-minute window; the actual direction after the break is not strongly established. With discretion, one tends to be pulled in ^^;
Today’s Question
Which is more likely to be tested first: breaking above 157.78 or breaking below 156.22?
I’ll reveal this week's answer at noon tomorrow ^^
If you’d like, please like or leave a comment to share your thoughts.
Thank you for reading this week as well. A summary of the tools used for validation is available here.Tsuji @ FX Method Validation Channel
Items published by FX Method Institute on GogoJungle
※ The validation uses USD/JPY hourly data from January 2016 to March 2026. It does not indicate future performance.
Indicator data: edited from Forex Factory / Tradays; Price: Dukascopy (Bid) as of 2026-10-23 09:00
※ These are Tsuji’s personal views. Please make investment decisions on your own.