[Nikkei 225 Futures] Morning rise, but afternoon plunge! The difference between "direction" and "judgment" shown by Drive30 on 10/22
October 22, 2026 (Thu) ｜ Nikkei 225 Mini Futures
However, afterward
it fell sharply.
Was the "morning rise" a signal to buy?
From today's price movements, we reflect on the market direction and the difference in trading decisions.
neither buying nor selling conditions were satisfied
01｜What kind of market was it in the morning?
On October 22, in the morning, there was a large intraday movement up and down, but by the end of the first 30 minutes, prices were higher than at the open.
Morning 30-minute close: 64,800
As a result, the morning reference direction is BUY BIAS. However, this only indicates the direction of price movement.
02｜BUY BIAS = Not necessarily a buy signal
BIAS (bias) is a term that clearly indicates market direction.
Even if BUY BIAS is shown, it does not mean you buy just because of it.
In Drive30, the morning direction and the formal trading decision are treated separately.
In this case, based on the saved price, the reference evaluation did not satisfy trading conditions.
03｜But then, a large drop occurred
Sell side became dominant.
On kabu Station's screen for the day, after the morning rise, the market turned downward and by the evening fell to the low 63,000 yen range.
Just because it rose in the morning does not mean it will continue rising all day.
Today, as the morning direction changed significantly after the morning, this illustrates the difficulty of the market.
04｜What if you had bought in the morning?
If you had purchased at the reference price of 64,790 in the morning, the subsequent drop would have been a very harsh development.
Do not rely only on the price movement direction; decide based on pre-set conditions. This is the fundamental idea of Drive30.
※ This is a hypothetical consideration. It does not indicate actual buy orders or profit/loss.
05｜Was the failure that there was no sell signal?
If you look only at the result, you might want to aim for selling in the afternoon's decline.
However, Drive30 does not change the trading direction after seeing price movement later.
Not only on days when the market moved a lot, but also on days when trading conditions were not met, it is important to reflect with the same stance.
Today's reference calculation was a wait-and-see, but the official automatic judgment is INVALID due to data integrity issues, and the daily result is UNCONFIRMED. This article's reference evaluation does not alter the official record.
Therefore, it cannot be counted as a confirmed trading result showing that losses were avoided.
06｜Today's summary
| Morning reference direction | BUY BIAS |
| Judgment in reference calculation | Wait-and-see |
| Hypothetical daily contribution | 0pt |
| Official automatic judgment | INVALID |
The morning direction does not guarantee future price movement.
Today’s market was a day that once again demonstrated that fact. In Drive30, both favorable results and tough results are recorded using the same standard and undergo verification.
Target date: October 22, 2026
Target: Nikkei 225 Mini - December 2026 contract
The morning price movement is an independent post-event calculation based on 1-minute Kab Station data preserved by the wind god.
Because some of the target data records have unknown integrity, the official morning automatic judgment is INVALID, and the daily result is UNCONFIRMED. This article's reference evaluation does not change the official record.
The afternoon market is based on that day's kabu Station screen. Actual orders, executions, and realized profits/losses are not confirmed.
This article is for market reflection and verification. It does not guarantee future profits or actual execution results.
Fixed Rules. Transparent Results.