Yataki Takaki 'Weekly Gold Market Outlook' October 19, 2026 issue
This is a gold market outlook report written weekly by Takaki Kaburagi, President and CEO of Investment Daily Co., Ltd., a pioneer in astrology-based market analysis and a leading figure in financial cycle analysis.
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Last week, the New York Gold Futures (front month) closed at 4,181.10 dollars, down 35.20 dollars from the previous week. While there is a basic caution about persistent inflation, the high probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October weighs on the gold market. U.S. consumer prices for September rose 3.7% year over year. The rise in energy prices is spilling over into the services sector. Gold can be bought as an inflation hedge, but currently the market is more focused on the risk that the Fed will raise policy rates and real interest rates will rise than on the inflation itself.
However, after Chairman Waller’s remarks on October 16, the probability of a rate hike at the October 28 FOMC meeting dropped from about 55% earlier in the week to around 15–17%. As a result, gold briefly fell below $4,100 in the middle of the week, but recovered more than $100 toward the end of the week.
On the other hand, the tense Middle East situation cannot eliminate the upward pressure on interest rates driven by higher crude oil prices. WTI crude oil briefly surpassed $100. Higher oil prices sustain inflation persistence and hinder rate declines. Unless there is a dramatic change in the Middle East situation, oil and rates are unlikely to fall much. President Trump would like to push for rate cuts before the midterm elections, but Iran is unlikely to compromise before the midterms to help the Republicans. From Iran’s perspective, it would also be desirable to push crude prices higher to pressure the FOMC in October to raise rates.
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【Takaki Kaburagi – Profile】
Graduated from Kwansei Gakuin University, Faculty of Economics. In 1995, partnered with the world-renowned U.S. market analyst Raymond Miriman (Raymond Meriman), and issued the domestic first market cycle and astrology report. Has a solid reputation for cycle- and astrology-based market analysis. President and CEO of Investment Daily Co., Ltd.; President of Investment Daily Publication Co., Ltd.; member of the Japanese Technical Analysts Association; editor-in-chief of “Investment Daily α.”
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