There are points to fix even for trades won with GOLD. The "4 reflections" separating profit/loss from rules
GOLD Price Movement Analysis | Practical Learning Series
Days that were profitable are “good trades,” days that incurred losses are “bad trades.” If you just end the diary there, you’ll have leftover trades that happened to survive and you may want to erase trades where you could have cut losses as planned.
This time, we will review separately the monetary results and whether the pre-set procedures were followed. It is necessary to verify separately whether the trading rules were effective and whether you were able to execute those rules.
If you divide into four parts, what you look up next changes
| Result | Followed pre-rules | Ignored pre-rules |
|---|---|---|
| Profit | Evaluate across all cases under the same conditions | Do not justify with profit; record the reasons for deviation |
| Loss | Check if it followed the plan, then move to method evaluation | Investigate deviations and their impact on losses separately |
Having losses even when you followed the rules does not mean the method is superior. Conversely, one single loss does not invalidate it. The purpose of this table is to avoid mixing “recording procedures” with “verification of overall conditions.”
Practice: A’s profit and B’s loss, what to fix?
Both are hypothetical 1-ounce trades. A buys at 3,000, moves the planned stop-out from 2,998 to 2,994, and finally settles at 3,001 for a +1 dollar. B buys at 3,000 and settles at 2,998 as planned for a −2 dollars. The prices exclude fees and other costs.
A is profitable, but it widened the expected price difference risk from 2 to 6 dollars. B is a loss, but the exit procedure was followed. For A, do not end with “survived, so correct”; record the time of change, reason, and the quantity and risk after the change. For B, evaluate including other trades conducted under the same conditions.
Keep notes before making a judgment and notes of the results separately
If you only recall the reasons after the trade, it becomes easy to write explanations that fit the outcome. Before judging, save the date/time frame, entry/exit conditions, execution conditions, and planned quantity; after settlement, add the成交 price, costs, profit/loss, and whether there was any deviation.
If you want to revise the first memo, keep the original text and add a “correction.” It is also important not to retrospectively categorize unrecorded trades as “followed trades” for convenience. If the justification is missing, mark it as “undetermined.”
Count the same trades in the same units
You can verify fills and costs from MT5 history and reports. However, if partial settlements exist, one trading decision can yield multiple settlement records. Treating the number of settlements as the number of independent trades would alter metrics like win rate.
In the diary, decide in advance, for example, to aggregate “one trading decision from entry to complete settlement as one trade,” and clearly state how partial settlements, add-ons, and reversals are handled. Keep the original execution history and maintain traceability with the aggregation table.
Use an arithmetic example of three trades to verify costs
In three fictitious trades, suppose the result from price differences is +6, −3, and −2 dollars, and the total cost per trade is 0.5 dollars. After costs, the results are +5.5, −3.5, and −2.5 dollars. The total is −0.5 dollars.
After costs, the win rate is 1/3 = about 33.3%, and the PF after costs is 5.5 ÷ (3.5 + 2.5) = about 0.92. Here, win/loss and PF are defined by the per-trade net profit after costs. When comparing with MT5 screens and reports, align whether those totals include costs.
These three items are for calculation practice and do not demonstrate a sufficient sample size for validation. To avoid selecting only favorable ranges of win rate or PF or excluding large losses without reason, decide the target period and target trades in advance.
A ready-to-use recording template
Before Judgment: Trade ID [ ] / Date and time-based [ ] / Instrument and time frame [ ] / Execution conditions [ ] / Conditions to cancel [ ] / Planned entry/stop loss/quantity [ ] / Judgment time image [ ].
After Settlement: Actual fills and quantities [ ] / Partial settlement handling [ ] / Costs-adjusted profit/loss [ ] / Compliance/Deviation/Undetermined [ ] / Time of change and reason [ ] / Difference from the memo before seeing the results [ ].
Example: A / Change planned SL from 2,998 to 2,994 / Result +1 dollar (before costs) / Deviation present / Reason: “I thought it would rebound” / Next time, record the difference from the planned risk before the change and check the exit conditions in advance.
If you find an improvement, do not replace past results with the new rule’s performance; record it as a separate idea. By observing after the condition changes and separating the results of the old conditions, you can see what was changed and what happened.
Confirm GOLD trading candidates and settlement targets on the same chart
For those who want to record the judgments they actually execute while comparing GOLD buy/sell candidates and settlement targets on a chart, CALDO is recommended. Please differentiate between records of signals that appeared and the records of actual trades you executed.
CALDO, developed and sold by the author, is a decision-support tool that checks GOLD buy/sell candidates and settlement targets on a chart. This article does not directly describe CALDO’s判定 logic using the article’s unique practice conditions and calculation sheets.
Displayed signals do not guarantee profits or executions. Please separate the tool’s display from the records of orders, settlements, and profits/losses you make yourself.
Reference materials
MetaTrader 5 Official: Trade history, fills, and positions display／MT5 Official: Trade reports. These are references for specifications. The comparison examples and judgment memos in the article are the author’s own educational materials and do not certify the method’s profitability in official documents.
This article contains general educational information. The header image is illustrative, and the prices, times, and trade results in the text are fictional examples. It is not a statement of real market outlook, real account performance, or CALDO verification results. There is loss risk in FX and CFDs, and stop-loss orders may not fill at the specified price.