[FX Course] After you entered, are you changing the scenario?
aren't you changing the scenario?
Hello, this is Leo.
When you’re trading, you’re quite calm before you enter, but the moment you hold a position, your judgment can change.
For example,
But, when that low is actually broken,
“There’s a horizontal line below, so it might revert.”
“If I average down once, I can lower my average price.”
and you start looking for a new reason.
This is quite dangerous in trading.
to protect the position becomes the goal
Don’t change rules before and after entry
Before trading, you’re relatively calm.
Because money hasn’t moved yet.
Therefore,
where to cut losses
how far to aim for profits
where the scenario would collapse
can be considered relatively objectively.
However, once you hold a position,
you begin to feel, “I don’t want to lose.”
Then,
you tend to prioritize protecting the position you currently hold over the originally decided rules.
“Reasons for entry” and “Reasons for holding” can be the same
For example,
↓
1-hour pullback forms
↓
breaks recent high
↓
buy entry
Then,
the reason to continue holding can be
which is fine.
Conversely, if that structure collapses, there is no longer a reason to hold.
The most dangerous is the “post-hoc justification”
When you’re in a losing position, you end up spending more time looking at charts.
And, the more you look, the more new reasons you find.
“There’s a weekly horizontal line too.”
“Oscillator is oversold.”
“Last time it rebounded from here too.”
But, these reasons are often not visible before you enter.
If so, they become materials to justify the position rather than to inform the decision.
Decide the scenario-denial line in advance
Therefore, I believe it’s important to decide a price point before entry where, if reached, “my thinking would have been different.”
For a buy, the most recent low.
For a sell, the most recent high.
Or the swing low/high per Dow theory.
In this way,
is not the question;
“Where does the scenario collapse if price breaks?”
and set the stop loss location from there.
Moving stop losses creates a “different trade”
For example, you enter with a 20-pip stop.
But, just before the stop,
you think, “Let me wait a bit longer.”
and widen to 30 pips.
If it falls further to 50 pips,
at this point, the trade you entered initially is almost a different trade.
=
discarding the initial scenario
This also applies to take-profit
In reality, scenario changes aren’t just on the loss side.
They can also occur when you’re in profit.
Originally, you planned to aim for a level 50 pips ahead.
But, when it reaches +10 pips,
you might think, “This is enough.”
and take profit.
This is also a post-entry scenario change.
Gain by shrinking the profit
This is the most avoided pattern.
Of course, there are times when you should change the scenario
Here is where you must not misunderstand: it’s not that once you decide, you must never change regardless of what happens.
For example,
• Higher timeframes clearly shift
• An unexpected big news comes out
• A strong reversal signal appears before the take-profit candidate
In such cases,new objective informationappears, and you may revise the scenario.
What matters is
“Are you changing because the market has changed?”
this is the difference.
Try not to have any position for a moment
When you’re uncertain, I’d think like this.
If the answer is “No,”
then what is the reason you’re still holding a position?
Thinking about this helps you notice that you might be holding due to emotions.
Decide only four things before entry
If I were you, I would decide at least these four in advance.
② Where to break to end the scenario
③ Where to take profit
④ Is the RR sufficient
If these four are decided, there will be fewer things to think about after entry.
In the trade journal, record “whether you changed it midway”
If you keep a trade journal, note not only wins and losses but also
This is interesting to record.
Took profit earlier than planned → ×
Added another position → ×
Ended according to the rules → ○
Continuing this reveals many improvements beyond profit and loss.
Before entry you are calm, but once you hold a position, emotions come in.
That’s why you should decide in advance.
Reasons to cut
Reasons to take profit
And if those conditions haven’t changed, you should basically proceed with the original scenario.
Conversely, if the scenario collapses, you should not search afterward for reasons to hold the position.
Do not change the scenario according to your emotions.
Even this small difference can significantly reduce trading deviations.
