【Midpoint around the 158 yen level】Dollar rises adjusted by falling U.S. rates and oil hovering around $105 — 3 major scenarios and intervention defense line just before 21:30 tomorrow "U.S. September CPI"

On the afternoon of October 13, 2026 (Tuesday), after the long US holiday weekend (Columbus Day), in the Tokyo foreign exchange market, the USD/JPY istrading in a range around 158.20 to 158.50 yen.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which had reached its highest level in 18 months by the previous business day,around 102.4 to 102.6has fallen slightly, and the US 10-year Treasury yield, which briefly surged to 5.36% during the week,near 5.19%has declined to about 105 dollars per barrel for North Sea Brent crude oil futures, which had been bought up to the 106-dollar range,around 105 dollarshas paused its ascent.

“Why doesn’t the dollar rise push the USD/JPY to break below 158 even though US rates have fallen?”

“Is the crude oil pullback temporary noise, or a signal of easing tensions amid Middle East tensions?”

“Tomorrow, October 14 (Wednesday) at 21:30, with the release of the ‘US September CPI (Consumer Price Index),’ which side are large players leaning toward in terms of positioning?”

The current market is not indicating that the trend has ended,but rather a stalemate where “the floor around 5.2% in US rates with Middle East risk” and “US rate pullback with potential domestic authorities’ intervention” perfectly offset each other, awaiting the decisive move of tomorrow’s US CPI.

From the truth of domestic price indicators released in Asian time today, through the on-the-ground situation in the Middle East’s Hormuz Strait, to the divergent scenarios ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI, we will detail and analyze.

Chapter 1: The Four Major Macro Drivers That Move the Market Now

And Our Current Location

As of the afternoon of October 13, these are the key indicators shaping market pricing.