[Global Market & Middle East Situation Comprehensive Review] Houthi attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, crude at $104, U.S. rates around 5.2% — “flight to dollars in times of crisis” and Japan’s holiday lull set a trap for the dollar-yen in the 158 yen range
In the evening of October 12, 2026 (Monday), the world financial markets at the start of the coming week are opening a new trading week amid a tense atmosphere following a rapid development of Middle East affairs.
While the Tokyo market is closed for the holiday of "Sports Day" and physical shares are halted, from Asian to European trading hours the USD/JPYis hovering around 158.20–158.40 yenand edging higher toward the highest level in 18 months, following the dollar, with the dollar index around 102.1.
“Why is the yen, considered a safe asset, being sold when the conflict in the Middle East is escalating?”
“Why is there a mild rebound in stocks while crude oil is above $100?”
“Ahead of the US CPI for September on Wednesday, October 14, how will the markets move this week?”
The most important task in interpreting the current market is to clearly distinguish whether the Middle East situation is merely a diplomatic/military tension or whether it has developed into an energy crisis through a disruption of physical crude oil logistics.
From the military events on the Middle East ground to the transmission channels to oil, government bonds, and currencies, and to this week’s trading scenarios, we will dissect the entire picture in detail as a single current.
Chapter 1: What is Moving the Global Markets Now
“Five Major Macro Drivers”
Currently, the five key variables that dominate price formation in global markets are the following five points.