【Reasons it won’t fit even if the direction is correct】Measure the margin to the wall first
Even though my buy signal was correct, it was pushed back by the wall just above and I was stopped out. Isn’t it frustrating that the direction was right, yet you keep thinking about it?
If the direction was correct, what was missing?
Actually, I receive this question quite a lot.
Good evening!
This is Masashi^^
This time, I’ll talk about looking at how close the wall is, rather than the direction, and removing situations that are too close.
Even if the direction is right, I won’t enter in places where the wall is too close.
? Places to look when you’re asked, “The direction was right, but why?”
When I get such consultations, the first thing I look at isn’t the direction.
From the entry point to the next wall on the higher time frame, how far apart was it?
Usually, just above the entry point there is a high price level where I’ve been stopped many times before.
The buying signal itself isn’t off, but it’s like hitting the ceiling with your head before it can stretch.
I used to lose in exactly the same way a long time ago (;'∀')
Because the direction is correct, you don’t know what went wrong.
? When reviewing a losing trade, connect the entry point and the next wall on the higher time frame with a single line.
? Even with the right direction, if the entry point is too tight, you can’t advance
If you want a simple analogy, think of it as a train.
Even if the destination is correct, if you board one stop before the terminal, you will be dropped off after one stop.
The market direction is like the train’s destination.
The distance to the wall is how many stops you can ride from there.
Even with the correct direction, if the wall is right in front of you, you’re likely to be stopped before you can gain profits.
If you’re pushed back at the stopping point, you may be carried to a stop loss in one go.
The fact that the direction is right and that there is space at the entry point are two separate things to confirm.
? There are only two rulers: to the wall, and to the stop point
So, how do you decide if it’s too close?
In my case, I use a ruler that compares two lines.
The first line is from the entry point toward the next wall on the higher time frame in the direction you intend to move.
The second line is from the same starting point to the place where you would stop if your assumption is wrong.
If, side by side, the distance to the wall is evidently tighter, you temporarily remove that scenario from consideration.
There’s little reason to wait in a place where you’re likely to be stopped before a move.
Example of records: [to the wall: one finger’s width / to the stop point: two fingers’ width → remove]
I won’t use precise numbers here. It’s enough to place your finger on the screen and compare at a glance.
✅ Practicing the two-line method first with past losses
It’s better to practice before using it in live orders; it reduces hesitation.
Practice material is charts of recent losses.
・Choose three losses where the direction was right but you were cut
・Connect the entry point and the wall ahead with a line
・Decide in one word whether it’s a direction loss or a closeness loss
When you try it, you’ll find that some losses you thought were direction losses include closeness losses.
I was surprised at first by how many such cases there were (lol)
I’ll summarize the results with the chart images briefly.
Example of how to note: [Direction: correct / Wall: directly ahead / Closeness loss]
As you get used to these distinctions, you’ll start noticing the wall’s closeness even before you enter in real trades.
? Focus on the closest wall
There’s a common pitfall when drawing two lines.
You draw the first line to the place you want to go, rather than to the closest wall.
The high price just above looks small, so you tend to skip it and extend the line to the bigger wall above.
That makes the first line too long, and every situation looks like a place you can enter.
The focus should be not on where you want to go, but on the first point you will hit.
If there is a high that has been stopped before, draw a line even if it’s small.
Draw the first line to the wall you will first hit, not to the place you hope for.
⚠ Being close isn’t inherently bad
Let me debunk one point here.
Being close to the wall doesn’t automatically mean it’s all bad.
If the wall is directly in front of the direction you’re moving, it’s too close.
But if the wall is behind you, that’s different.
For example, in a buying situation, there can be a low that’s supported many times just below.
It’s not that the way is blocked ahead, but that the behind is supported, so the perception changes.
So what we’re looking at isn’t simply near or far.
To which side the wall is nearer changes the meaning of the same closeness.
? Is the wall closer in front of you, or behind you? When evaluating closeness, also look at the direction.
❌ Do not erase lines thinking, “This wall looks weak.”
When you draw two lines and end up removing a case, there are words that tend to come to mind.
“This wall has been tested many times; next it will break through.”
That’s not confirming the wall; it’s predicting a break-through.
Whether it breaks through can only be confirmed after it happens.
If it breaks through, at that time you would recompare the two lines against the next wall.
There’s no reason to enter assuming it will break through before it happens.
Even if a wall looks weak, draw it as a wall until it breaks.
? The role of the GOLD remedy after the two lines
The two lines are the most immediate ruler to filter out too-close scenarios.
However, which wall you call a wall and where you place the stop location is up to you to decide.
In GOLD Remedy, the GOLD chart shows what to look at, why to wait, and where to stop,
and is organized so you can verify in the same order.
If you hesitate where to draw two lines, this will provide material for comparison.
On the other hand, the course material doesn’t draw the lines for you.
Tools don’t replace judgment, so the effort to draw lines and compare remains on you.
If you want one place to guarantee a win just by direction, this isn’t for you.
? Summary: Compare two lines before considering direction
Losses where the direction was right but you were stopped are particularly painful.
But many of them occurred because there was a wall right in front of the entry point.
So before entering, I lay out the two lines in parallel, before considering direction.
Whether the first line is drawn to the first wall you hit greatly changes how effective this ruler is.
When assessing closeness, also consider whether the wall is in front or behind you.
Even weak-looking walls should be counted as walls until they’re broken.
Whether you build these two lines yourself or organize your approach with GOLD Remedy will depend on your preference,
but the habit of comparing remains the same.
Lastly, may I ask one more question.
Among your recent losses, how many had a wall immediately in front of the entry point?
If you count them, you’ll likely find losses not due to direction as well^^
Thank you always for reading^^