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しゅん
10/10/2026 20:22
Release： 10/10/2026 20:22
Update： 10/10/2026 20:22
しゅん
Investment style : Scalping
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : -
We are developing a tool focused on short-term gold (XAUUSD) moves to identify the market's "overshooting." This is not a tool that promises winning rates or profits; it is a defensive indicator that notifies you when you should not jump in, reducing catching highs and selling lows. The validation is performed on historical data (gold 1-minute chart, 9 years), and the product page only lists what was learned from the validation. MT5–exclusive, no repaint, purchaser authentication included. If you have questions about how to use it or about errors, feel free to message us on Gogojan. We will respond as soon as possible, ideally the same day.
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ゴールド1分足で高値づかみ・安値売りが起きる理由

Have you ever experienced this when scalping on Gold (XAUUSD) on 1-minute and 5-minute charts?

  • You bought after seeing a strong rise, only to find that was the peak
  • You sold after a sharp drop, but immediately rebounded and pushed higher
  • You cut losses, and right after that the price moved back in the original direction

I repeated the same thing many times. Therefore, I studied “why high buy and low sell tend to occur on short-term Gold charts” using data from Gold 1-minute charts, about 3.39 million bars, from 2017 to August 2026. This article summarizes the results.Gold 1-minute chart, about 3.39 million barsThis article summarizes those findings.

1. Gold is a market where prices often “overshoot and then revert”

Gold’s price range (volatility) is larger than USD/JPY or EUR/USD, and it is not rare for the price to move several dollars even on a 1-minute chart. Because it moves quickly in a short time, the psychology of “I don’t want to miss it” tends to come into play, leading more people to jump on as the momentum is about to end.

In particular, at the start of London time (Japan time 16–17:00), the start of New York time (22–23:00), and immediately after macro releases like NFP, CPI, FOMC, there are frequent moves where the price overshoots in one direction and then reverts.

This does not mean that Gold is a market favoring counter-trend trading. There is a trend. However,even within a trend, there are more cases where “it’s late to jump in right now” than in other currency pairs, meaning the opportunity to jump in at that exact moment is more frequent than with other pairs.

2. I turned “buying strength” and “selling strength” into a single number

Oscillators like RSI and MFI are standard tools for spotting overbought and oversold conditions. However, using them directly on a 1-minute chart makes it difficult to distinguish genuine overheating from noise in low-activity periods.

Therefore, I combined three factors to turn the tug-of-war between buying and selling strength into a single number from 0 to 100.

  1. Candle shape：Whether the candle closed near its high or near its low (relation between body and wick)
  2. Capital flow：Whether the price rose or fell with accompanying volume (concept from MFI)
  3. Crowd：How many people are gathered now compared with the usual time

The third element, “the crowd,” is the key. For example, in the early Japan time morning and right after New York time indicators release, the same volume can have completely different meanings. By weighting only when the number of people is unusually high for that time window, genuine overheating is more easily captured.

The closer to 100, the stronger the buying force (angels win); closer to 0, the stronger the selling force (demons win). 50 is a tie.

3. What nine years of data revealed

I compiled how Gold behaved after the numbers reached the ends (above 90, below 10) across the entire period from 2017 to August 2026. Here is the conclusion.

From here on, you will see the results graph, how to use it on actual charts, and an honest answer to “can you win just with this number?” It is free, but you need to apply.