Three of us thought about today’s USD/JPY

Don't rush into a long position, wait until the trend becomes clear.

Today's USD/JPY isin the upper 157sand fluctuating.

So this time, with three people—

A: Ultra-optimistic
B: Ultra-cautious
C: A completely different perspective

we considered USD/JPY for today.

A: “There are still long opportunities”

A is bullish.

Although last week’s US employment data was weak, the dollar/yen did not break down drastically.

Therefore,

if we clearly break above 158, there could be an upside toward 159

as well.

B: “Watch out for declines today”

B is quite cautious.

With weak US employment data, expectations for further Fed rate hikes have fallen sharply.

This is

a factor that tends to cause dollar selling → yen buying → dollar/yen falling

to occur.

Therefore, if we dip below the upper 157s,there is a possibility of falling to the 156sas well.

C: “No need to forecast”

C has a completely different approach.

The idea is, “There is no need to decide now whether it will go up or down.”

Currently,

weak US employment data = dollar downside signal

and

high US rates = dollar upside signal

are colliding.

In that case, just wait until the market decides its direction before entering.

That’s C’s way of thinking.

The three's conclusion

I generally focus on long positions in USD/JPY, so today I think C’s view is the most fitting.

Clearly break above 158
→ consider going long

Dip below the upper 157s
→ do not force-buy; wait and observe

Trade within the 157s
→ do nothing

It’s not about “buy because it seems to rise,”

but about “buy because it has actually started to rise.”

I think this level of caution is appropriate.

There’s no need to trade every day.

Today too, we’ll wait until the conditions align.