[Path to Dream_FX_Primary Currencies_Market Environment Recognition & Memo_20261004]
【Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Notes_20261004】
Sunday, October 4.
Hello.
This is Southern Kanto once again under a cloudy sky.
It’s cloudy, but looks like no rain will occur,
making for a cheerful Sunday.
Forecasts indicate no rain for a while,
so outdoor activities can be expected to continue.
Now,
on Friday night's employment data
resulted in a significant departure from expectations
and the U.S. dollar was sold.
Could this indicate a daily chart cycle shift?
I think so.
Will dollar selling accelerate in the future?
Or will it stagnate?
I’m not sure, but
if it stagnates, a scenario of dollar strength and yen strength may be possible.
Well then, let’s confirm.
This is the count at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 22nd bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 15th bar / 9LT
Weekly volatility: 176 pips
HPC: 1st cycle, 73rd bar / 43 or
HPC: 2nd cycle, 2nd bar
4HC: 7th or 1st cycle, 8th / 7
I am interpreting it as such.
Due to the employment data impact,
the first half-primary cycle (HPC) closed
and perhaps we are in an upward wave?
I think so.
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20261004_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/en9WR0obezo
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 26th bar
Weekly: 4th cycle, 4th bar / 3 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 22nd bar / 12LT
Weekly volatility: 207 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 19th bar / 13 or
HPC: 2nd cycle, 45th bar / 23LT
4HC: 4th or 2nd cycle, 17th bar / 8
I see it this way.
Under the scenario of weekly bar 22, the 4-hour chart could form a head-and-shoulders.
In that case, USD/JPY downside is in view?
Cross-yen will follow a similar pattern, so
upward move in a dollar strength scenario is limited,
and downside in USD/JPY is in view.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 22nd bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 15th bar / 9
Weekly volatility: 130 pips
HPC: 1st cycle, 73rd bar / 43 or
HPC: 2nd cycle, 2nd bar
4HC: 1st cycle, 7th / 6
I’m interpreting it this way.
I expect GBP/USD to also show a daily chart shift interpretation.
The question is how high it will rise.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 27th bar / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 22nd bar / 13LT
Weekly volatility: 311 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 45th bar / 15LT
4HC: 4th cycle, 17th bar / 8LT or
4HC: 4th cycle, 3rd bar
I think so.
The scenario that 4HC has already broken the starting point takes priority, I think.
If it rises and surpasses EMA75, a reassessment will be necessary.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 27th bar / 24
Weekly: 4th cycle, 23rd bar / 12
Weekly volatility: 310 pips
Daily: 3rd or HPC 2, 45th bar / 17LT
4HC: 4th cycle, 17th bar / 8
I’m interpreting this.
GBP/JPY’s 4HC has not broken the starting point,
and the leading currency is more likely EUR/JPY.
If it continues to rise and makes a new high
GBP/JPY becomes the leading currency
EUR/JPY would be the lagging currency.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 19th bar / 15
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 9th bar / 4
Weekly volatility: 218 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 45th bar / 20LT
4HC: 4th cycle, 17th bar / 8LT
I think so.
The first scenario is a break of the starting point similar to EUR/JPY.
However, if it continues to rise, a daily chart shift in 4HC first could also be in view.
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20261004_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/en9WR0obezo
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DXY 101.923 -0.12%
US10Y 5.275 +0.61%
DJI 51,182 points +250
US500 +0.75%
WTI 93.68
BRN 102.25
Nikkei 225 68,309 points -647
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