Today’s Conclusion — Check in 30 seconds
Break above 69,300 and August high 69,650; night high at 70,190.The daily trend display also shifts upward; the daily, 4H, and 1H are aligned in an upward direction. However, the daily chart is an ongoing day on 10/5 trading day and not a close. The 15m is range-bound with a downward wave, so基本 is② Buy on dips preferential. From the current price 69,760, start from 70 yen below to 69,450〜69,690, then wait for a rebound at 69,100〜69,300.70,240If closed above and held on the 15m, then ①. Stalling at 69,850〜70,050 is the short-term pullback capture of ③,69,050clear break below leads to ④. Do not assume SQ week will stay within 69,000〜70,000; prioritize price reactions.
Priority Watch
② Buy on dips69,450〜69,690When upside conditions are met
① Breakout buy70,240↑Counter-trend / pullback capture
③ Sell on pullback69,850〜70,050When downside conditions are met
④ BreakSell69,050↓Previous Verification and Application to This Time
10/2:① reached T1/T2; ◎② failed to reach twice in a row.
In the verification, ① established after breaking 69,290 and rose to 69,650 and 70,000.③ reached near 68,920 which exceeded the first-zone upper limit 68,890 by about 30 yen and fell back to T1 at 68,430.②'s low of 68,310 approached the first-zone upper limit 68,230 by 80 yen, but exceeded the allowable 50 yen and thus did not establish.
Application to this time:Within the strong rising first monitoring zone, do not decide by ratio alonePlace from the first structural support immediately under the current priceThis time uses the old high of 69,650 and the 23.6% retracement of the small wave at 69,624. Nearby tolerance remains 50 yen in front and an overshoot of 100 yen. This design change reflects two missed attempts; its validity will be tested going forward.
Option Market Structure × MTF Snapshot
TOTAL GEX
+83.5
JPY bn / 1%｜From previous +110.7, contracted
ZERO GAMMA
66,697
Futures reference value 69,760 is about 3,063 yen lower
KEY POSITIVE GEX
69,000 / 70,000
Net GEX +17.02 / +15.58
CALL WALL
73,000
Rises above 69,000｜BUILDING
Daily
Uptrend / Upward wave
Reversal 64,590｜Support 62,530｜Return high 73,760
The 10/5 trading day is ongoing
4H
Uptrend / Upward wave
Reversal 67,920｜Support 64,880｜Return high 66,850 (X)
1H
Uptrend / Upward wave
Reversal 69,420｜Support 67,790｜Return high 65,990 (X)
15m
Range / Downward wave
Reversal 69,950｜Support 68,310｜Return high 68,920 (X)
Option：As of 10/2 19:40, Bias is Neutral (score -3.0, confidence 6/10). Put Wall at 66,000・BUILDING. Positive GEX at 68,000 (+10.28)・68,500 (+9.87)・69,000 (+17.02)・69,500 (+3.31)・70,000 (+15.58)・71,000 (+7.90)・72,000 (+9.31). Units are JPY bn / 1%. With SQ for October options on 10/9 in view, these are estimates at dusk and do not guarantee convergence to 69,000〜70,000.
Waves & Overlaps：The initial target of 69,300 was reached. The next 70,590 is an extrapolation using 62,530; 73,760 is treated as the major return high on the daily chart. 69,420 is a candidate corresponding to a 1H reversal and night local low, aligning with A-type; it differs from the 15m low of 68,310 on the table. This time, there is no S-rank based solely on MTF structure.
Today’s Important Monitoring Levels
70,240
Upward breakout criteria
To ① / separate from the short-term reversal of 69,950
69,850〜70,050
15m reversal 69,950＋70,000 positive GEX
③ First monitoring zone / Option-adjusted A-type
69,450〜69,690
August high 69,650 + 23.6% retrace 69,624
② First monitoring zone / confirm the first support
69,420
1H reversal + night local low
Close below 1H would turn the 1H wave downward
69,100〜69,300
Old high 69,240 + 38.2% retrace 69,273
② Second monitoring zone / reevaluate after pullback
69,050
Down breakout criteria
④ To ④ / watch for rebound around 69,000〜68,990
Scenario Switching Map
70,240 Breakout and hold① Breakout-following long
When gap is passed, wait for a pullback and re-break
69,100〜70,220Lower is ◎② / Upper stall is ③
Only exceeding 69,950 does not constitute ①
69,050 Break clearly② End → ④ Breakout-following short
Confirm support passing at 69,000〜68,990
Today’s 4 Scenarios
① Breakout-following (Long)CONDITIONAL
| Monitoring | 70,190〜70,240 |
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| Fulfillment | Clearly break above 70,240 on 15m close and hold. If the open is sharply higher, wait for a pullback as a gap-pass |
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| Entry | After pullback to breakout level, re-enter on 1–5 minute upside reversal. After a normal breakout, monitor reversal near tilted 20MA. The actual entry is after 1H close recovers to 70,350 |
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| Exit / Switch | If 15m close below 70,080, retest fails → exit. Complete exit at 69,600. If breakout fails, re-evaluate ② or ③ conditions |
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| Targets | 70,590 → 71,000 → 72,000. Take partial profits at 71,000 and 72,000 |
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Option / Structure：B stance maintained. Positive GEX at 70,000 is a threshold before reaching 70,240, and is separate from immediate resistance above. Watch reactions at 70,500 (+2.08), 71,000 (+7.90), 72,000 (+9.31). Call Wall at 73,000; daily retracement high at 73,760 is a farther milestone.
② Buy on dips (Long)FOCUS
| Monitoring | First monitoring zone 69,450〜69,690 / Second monitoring zone 69,100〜69,300 |
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| Fulfillment | After zone reach, 1–5 minute closes above the nearest retracement high to trigger up move. Nearby within 50 yen in front and 100 yen overshoot; invalidate if exceeded |
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| Entry | Real-time rebound allows small early entries. Add progressively with 1-minute reversal and 5-minute confirmation. Actual entry considered after 1H close recovers and holds at 69,970 |
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| Exit / Switch | First zone exits if below 69,370; second zone exits if below 69,050; clear break or lower hold leads to ④. Complete exit at 68,880 |
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| Targets | 69,950 → 70,190 → 70,590. Break above and hold at 70,240 on 15m close extends to ① |
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Option / Structure：Both zones are MTU B; with Option adjustment they correspond to A-type. The first zone confirms support at 69,500 +3.31 and the old high at 69,650 as support-turned. The second supplementary material 69,000 (+17.02) is outside the invalidation at 69,050 and not a basis to hold there. From 69,970 to 70,000 is 30 yen, so take profits at T1; add only after confirming resistance pass and pullback.
③ Sell on rallies (Short)COUNTER
| Monitoring | First monitoring zone 69,850〜70,050 / Second monitoring zone 70,060〜70,220 |
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| Fulfillment | In each zone, momentum stalls and 1–5 minute closes below the low of pullbacks, turning downward. Nearby within 50 yen, overshoot 100 yen; no expansion for invalidation |
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| Entry | First zone: real-time pullback with small size; confirm on 5-minute. Second zone: wait for reversal confirmation. Short-term pullback capture limited against daily/4H/1H |
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| Exit / Switch | First zone exits if above 70,060; second zone invalidated higher, but if 70,240 break above and hold earlier, that ends ③ and reverts to ①. Clear break below 69,050 leads to ④. Complete exit at 70,490 |
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| Targets | 69,650 → 69,420 → 69,240. Do not chase beyond the second rebound candidate |
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Option / Structure：First zone: 70,000 (+15.58) moves from B to A-type; Second zone remains B. If 69,970 is recovered and held on 15m close, short-term momentum turns up; confirm new stalls within zones. Do not sell solely on SQ proximity or only rely on +200 yen; move to break-even on reaching that value.
④ Breakout-following (Short)④ Breakout-following (Short)CONDITIONALCONDITIONAL
| MonitoringMonitoring | 69,050. A break below 69,370 on 15m close is a leading sign69,050。69,370の15m終値割れは先行サインにとどめる |
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| Fulfillment成立 | Clearly break below 69,050 on 15m close and hold below. A break only on wicks does not count69,050を15m終値で明確に下抜け、下側で維持。髭だけの割れは成立扱いにしない |
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| Entryエントリー | Return to breakout level or tilted 20MA, then downward reversal on 1–5 minute. Actual entry after 1H close below 68,280 is confirmed as first pullbackブレイク水準または傾いた20MAへの戻り後、1〜5分足で再下降転換。本玉化は1H終値68,280割れ確認後の最初の戻り |
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| Exit / Switch撤退・切替 | Restore above 69,230 on 15m close to exit. Complete exit at 69,560. If breakout fails, re-evaluate ② conditions69,230を15m終値で回復したら撤退。完全撤退69,560。ブレイク失敗なら②の条件を再評価 |
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| Targetsターゲット | 68,310 → 67,920 → 67,790. Lock in profits at 68,500 and 68,000 earlier68,310 → 67,920 → 67,790。途中の68,500・68,000で利確・保護を前倒し |
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Option / Structure：Option / 構造：B stance. 69,000 (+17.02) and a small wave 50% retrace 68,990 sit 50–60 yen below trigger; Entry focuses on passing through this zone and pullback failure with remaining range considered. 68,500 (+9.87) and 68,000 (+10.28) are also rebound candidates. 4H wave-turn is determined by 67,920 4H close below.B据え置き。69,000（+17.02）と小さな波の50%戻し68,990がトリガーの50〜60円下にあり、エントリーはこの帯の通過・戻り失敗と残り値幅を重視。68,500（+9.87）・68,000（+10.28）も反発候補。4H波動転換は67,920の4H終値割れで判定する。
Current Actions
Upper Side: 69,950〜70,240
- Recover 69,950 on 15m close → confirm up move in short term
- 69,850〜70,050, 70,060〜70,220 stall → ③
Lower Side: 69,690〜69,050
- Rebound at 69,450〜69,690 → ◎② First monitoring zone
- Close below 69,420 on 1H → confirm downward in 1H wave
- Exit at 69,370 breakdown → reevaluate 69,100〜69,300
Risk Management
MFE protection is+200 yen to cost basis or small profit, +300 yen to secure at least +100 or use trailing. For ②, target 69,950〜70,000; for ③, 69,650; for ④, profit/ protection ahead at 68,500・68,000. Actual stop is just outside the reversal point; do not hold beyond the loss tolerance upper bound when a zone becomes invalid.
Nearby within 50 yen / overshoot up to 100 yenHowever, prioritize the invalidation price. Second zone is a new setup after stopping out; do not average into a position. If the zone is not passed by the start of the new week, ② remains unfulfilled at that time. Re-evaluate if later reaches occur. Decide from day to night transition and carry protection rules into the next day, ending the cycle at complete exit. Even with strong positive GEX, do not rule out large directional moves or gaps.
NK225 DAILY TRADING PLAN2026-10-05
※ Based on the report produced on 10/4 07:47, refer to futures 69,760 as of 10/3 06:00. Target is intraday 10/5〜10/6 06:00. Previous fulfillment was user-verified; target attainment is based on price path, not realized P/L or MFE. Re-evaluate if structure changes based on lower-timeframe conditions.
※ The daily chart display adopts the judging in provided materials; note that the daily shown by the original source includes the night of 10/2 and the ongoing 10/5 trading day, and is distinct from a confirmed daily close. Trading day spans from the night start to the next business day's daytime close (JPX). October option SQ is on the second Friday, 10/9 (JPX System Overview).
※Option uses the 2026-10-02 version (generated at 19:40, price observations at 19:40 JST, spot 68,309.46・futures 68,650). Total GEX +83.5352 is a contraction from previous +110.6985; Zero Gamma 66,697.43. These are recalculated values for 69,760 futures and are not the market’s current gamma. Gamma changes with price (CME Group), Wall and positive GEX are not fixed supports/resistances. Open Interest alone does not determine market participants.
※ The dip ratios are based on 2,400 move from 67,790 to 70,190, with 23.6% = 69,624, 38.2% = 69,273, 50% = 68,990. This is distinct from the 64,880 4H origin. 70,590 = 66,560 + (66,560−62,530) is a past-origin-based reference calculation. Reaching 69,300 does not mean the anticipated push to 66,560 has occurred.
