Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Macro & Sector Weekly, Week 1 of October
TSE Prime Macro & Industry Weekly
Macro factors this weekAs of October 2
＋ meaning: Interest rates up / Yen depreciation or depreciation of currency / Economy expansion / Geopolitics rising risk / Resources price up. 0 is the latest 1-year average.
※ Some factors changed from the previous issue (Economy +0.30 → +0.14, Geopolitics -0.65 → -0.17). After publishing the previous issue, late-released indicators (monthly indicators and U.S. indicators that come out 1–2 business days late) were incorporated, so the previous week's values were recalculated. The week-over-week and the “previous week” rankings of industries are also recalculated against the updated values.
This week’s summary
The most moved factor this week wasInterest ratesrising from +1.15 to +1.51 (+0.36), moving in the direction of higher interest rates.
Geopolitics has hardly changed from last week (change less than 0.10).
The level with a large impact is Interest rates +1.51 (rising rates).
Top industries by score areWholesale, Insurance, Banking, bottom are Electricity & Gas, Land Transportation, Air Transportation.
Industries that moved three or more ranks: Food 29 → 25 (mainly due to interest rates), Other Financials 10 → 7 (mainly due to interest rates), Pharmaceuticals 17 → 14 (mainly due to interest rates), Chemicals 16 → 20 (mainly due to economy).
Series that moved more than usual in a week (≥1σ): U.S. High Yield Spread +0.31pt (+2.7σ), U.S. Yield Curve (10y-2y) +0.09pt (+1.7σ).
Industry Score Rankings33 industries
| Rank | Industry | Number of stocks | Score | −2 0 +2 | Previous week | Change | Main factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wholesale | 120 | +0.97 | 1st | → | Economy ↓ | |
| 2 | Insurance | 11 | +0.95 | 2nd | → | Rates ↑ | |
| 2 | Banking | 69 | +0.95 | 2nd | → | Rates ↑ | |
| 4 | Petroleum & Coal Products | 5 | +0.50 | 5th | ↑1 | Economy ↓ | |
| 4 | Mining | 4 | +0.50 | 5th | ↑1 | Economy ↓ | |
| 6 | Nonferrous Metals | 20 | +0.49 | 4th | ↓2 | Economy ↓ | |
| 7 | Other Financials | 21 | +0.46 | 10th | ↑3 | Rates ↑ | |
| 8 | Securities & Commodity Exchanges | 19 | +0.45 | 7th | ↓ 1 | Economy ↓ | |
| 9 | Machinery | 111 | +0.37 | 8th | ↓1 | Economy ↓ | |
| 10 | Steel | 20 | +0.29 | 9th | ↓1 | Economy ↓ | |
| 11 | Transportation Equipment | 38 | +0.21 | 11th | → | Economy ↓ | |
| 12 | Marine Transportation | 5 | +0.14 | 12th | → | Economy ↓ | |
| 13 | Precision Instruments | 27 | -0.03 | 13th | → | Rates ↓ | |
| 14 | Pharmaceuticals | 31 | -0.23 | 17th | ↑3 | Rates ↓ | |
| 15 | Rubber Products | 10 | -0.26 | 15th | → | Rates ↓ | |
| 16 | Electrical Equipment | 123 | -0.28 | 14th | ↓2 | Economy ↓ | |
| 17 | Other Miscellaneous | 37 | -0.49 | 18th | ↑1 | Rates ↓ | |
| 17 | Glass/Stone Products | 22 | -0.49 | 18th | ↑1 | Rates ↓ | |
| 17 | Metal Products | 26 | -0.49 | 18th | ↑1 | Rates ↓ | |
| 20 | Chemicals | 115 | -0.51 | 16th | ↓4 | Economy ↓ | |
| 21 | Warehousing & Transportation | 9 | -0.73 | 23rd | ↑2 | Rates ↓ | |
| 21 | Textile Products | 17 | -0.73 | 23rd | ↑2 | Rates ↓ | |
| 23 | Service Industry | 143 | -0.77 | 21st | ↓2 | Rates ↓ | |
| 23 | Information & Communications | 164 | -0.77 | 21st | ↓2 | Rates ↓ | |
| 25 | Food | 68 | -0.89 | 29th | ↑4 | Rates ↓ | |
| 26 | Fishery & Forestry | 6 | -0.95 | 27th | ↑1 | Rates ↓ | |
| 27 | Retail | 129 | -0.96 | 25th | ↓2 | Rates ↓ | |
| 28 | Construction | 70 | -1.00 | 26th | ↓2 | Rates ↓ | |
| 29 | Pulp & Paper | 10 | -1.11 | 30th | ↑1 | Rates ↓ | |
| 30 | Real Estate | 48 | -1.18 | 28th | ↓2 | Rates ↓ | |
| 31 | Air Transport | 2 | -1.41 | 31st | → | Economy ↓ | |
| 32 | Railroad | 36 | -1.45 | 32nd | → | Rates ↓ | |
| 33 | Electricity & Gas | 22 | -1.74 | 33rd | → | Rates ↓ |
Scores range from −2 to +2. A plus indicates a favorable wind in the current market, a minus indicates headwinds. The number of stocks reflects the prime stocks in that industry. The top 5 and bottom 5 are color-highlighted. An upward arrow in main factors means wind has increased; a downward arrow means it has decreased.
Industries with movement this weekDaily, ordered by largest weekly change
| Series | Value | Weekly Change | Compared to usual | Influencing factors | Date of value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. High Yield Spread | 3.24 | +0.31pt | +2.7σ | Economy − | 2026-10-01 |
| U.S. Yield Curve (10y-2y) | 0.45 | +0.09pt | +1.7σ | Rates + | 2026-10-02 |
| U.S. 10-year Real Yield (TIPS) | 2.88 | +0.05pt | Rates + | 2026-10-01 | |
| USD/JPY | 157.83 | -0.62% | Yen depreciation − | 2026-10-02 | |
| WTI Crude Oil | 91.26 | -1.24% | Resources − | 2026-10-02 | |
| VIX | 15.31 | +2.96% | Geopolitics + | 2026-10-02 |
Compared to usual, the weekly change indicates how many times larger that week’s change is relative to the usual one-week change over the past year. Bold indicates a change beyond ±1σ. Rates and spreads are shown as points difference (pt) rather than rate-of-change. U.S. series are labeled with dates since their releases are 1–2 business days late.
Monthly seriesLatest published values
| Series | Value | MoM Change | Influencing factors | Reference month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan Long-term Interest Rate (10-year) | 2.94 | +0.15 | Rates + | Aug 2026 |
| Real Effective Exchange Rate (BIS) | 65.04 | -0.38 | Jul 2026 | |
| OECD Leading Economic Indicator Japan | 100.30 | +0.01 | Aug 2026 | |
| OECD Leading Indicator United States | 100.96 | +0.06 | Aug 2026 | |
| OECD Leading Indicator China | 98.10 | -0.14 | Aug 2026 | |
| U.S. Industrial Production (YoY) | 1.42 | +0.29 | Aug 2026 | |
| Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) | 146.21 | +20.59 | Sep 2026 | |
| Copper (LME) | 13,542.82 | -9.22 | Jul 2026 | |
| U.S. CPI (YoY) | 3.35 | +0.05 | Aug 2026 |
Monthly series take 1–3 months to publish. Weekly-factor movements mainly come from daily series.
Factor transitionsLast 6 weeks, each Friday
| Factor | 08/28 | 09/04 | 09/11 | 09/18 | 09/25 | 10/02 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest rates | +0.46 | +0.65 | +0.69 | +0.63 | +1.15 | +1.51 |
| Yen depreciation | +0.66 | +0.22 | -0.07 | +0.24 | +0.64 | +0.74 |
| Economy | +0.65 | +0.48 | +0.49 | +0.47 | +0.14 | -0.16 |
| Geopolitics | -0.74 | -0.24 | -0.02 | -0.22 | -0.17 | -0.11 |
| Resources | +0.57 | +0.85 | +0.99 | +0.94 | +0.73 | +0.61 |
How to read this report
This week’s explanatory videoTSE Prime Macro Week 1, October 2026
We also explain the contents of this report in a video.
This report is a mechanical整理 of market conditions based on macro indicators and the sensitivities of the 33 TSE Prime industries, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific stocks or industries. Industry scores do not predict future stock prices and are not a test of past performance. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.