NK225 Daily Trading Plan｜Today's Monitoring Levels and 4 Scenarios【10/2】 - Navi+ - GogoJungle | Auto Trading - Market Analysis

TRADE DATE2026.10.02

REFERENCE68,460

VALIDITYDaytime to next night close

UPDATED2026.10.02 06:01 JST

Today's Conclusion — Check in 30 seconds

Rise to 69,240,reach the initial target of 69,300 just before a 60-yen move。The Night session pulled back to 67,790 and closed at 68,460. The 4H remains in an uptrend and rising wave, while the 1H shows a downtrend, and the 15m shows a downtrend with an uptick. The base is② dip-buying prioritized, waiting for a rebound in 67,990–68,230, then 67,690–67,890. If it stalls at 68,690–68,890, scenario ③ is a short-term retracement capture.69,290 breakout and hold on the 15m close would confirm ①,67,540 breaking clearly would move to ④. The most important lower support candidates are67,020–67,060. Before aiming higher, confirm the depth of the pullback.

Priority Monitoring

② Dip-buying67,990–68,230

When upside conditions are met

① Breakout buying69,290↑

Counter-trend / pullback capture

③ Retrace selling68,690–68,890

When downside conditions are met

④ Breakout selling67,540↓

Last Test and Reflections for This Time

10/1: Scenario ① occurred; ◎② did not.
In the test, the breakout follow-through for ① succeeded, rising to 69,240 and reaching 68,450 and 69,000. The final target of 69,300 did not reach by 60 yen. For ②, around the open, 67,150–67,200 was the upper bound of the first zone, about 100–150 yen short of 67,050, and not reached. Separately record the long-side view and the entry for ②.

Reflection for this time：Near terms unified to “nearby within 50 yen ahead / overshoot within 100 yen behind.” The 10/01 near 68,000 (+10.60) and the 9/30 near 50 yen are valid, while 9/24③ near 100 yen and this time’s ② remained unreached. Considering a strong rise followed by a shallow pullback, widen the ② first zone to include 68,230 (including the 23.6% retracement at 68,211). Even if price does not return to breakout level at ①, wait for a renewed upside reversal on the 20MA around a tilted trend in 1–5 minute candles.

Option Market Structure × MTF Snapshot

TOTAL GEX

+110.7

JPY bn / 1%｜POSITIVE

ZERO GAMMA

66,461

Approximately 1,999 yen below the futures baseline 68,460

KEY POSITIVE GEX

68,000

Net GEX +10.60｜Within Zone 1

CALL WALL

69,000

Net GEX +20.30｜BUILDING

Uptrend / Upward wave

Turn at 67,020 | Support at 64,880 | Resistance at 66,850 (X)

Uptrend / Downward wave

Turn at 68,690 | Support at 67,020 | Resistance at 65,990 (X)

15m

Downturn / Upward wave

Turn at 68,430 | Support at 67,020 | Resistance at 68,860

Option：補完 data generated at 19:58 on 10/1. Bias is Neutral (score -1.0, confidence 7/10). On the downside: 68,000 (+10.60) • 67,750 (+6.55) • 67,500 (+5.37) • 67,000 (+2.04); on the upside: 68,500 (+9.41) • 68,750 (+2.87) • 69,000 (+20.30) • 70,000 (+18.04) are monitored. Put Wall at 65,000. GEX unit is JPY bn / 1%. The positive GEX is a guide for reaction and does not guarantee direction or fixed support/resistance.

Wave pattern and overlap：67,020 is a precise match for 4H turn, 1H pullback low, and 15m pullback low, a confluence S of MTF structure. The 50% retracement at 67,060 is nearby. This is a deeper support candidate separate from the two ZONES monitored in ②, and it is not the reason to carry ② losses to here. The price path to 69,300 is nearly achieved, but the anticipated pullback toward around 66,560 and its support confirmation have not occurred.

Key Monitoring Levels Today

69,290

Upside breakout threshold

To ① / Next August high 69,650

68,690–68,890

1H turn at 68,690 + 15m retrace high 68,860

③ First monitoring zone / MTF corresponds to A phase

67,990–68,230

23.6% retrace 68,211 + Night low 68,140

② First monitoring zone / 68,000 Positive GEX

67,690–67,890

Night low 67,790 + old high 67,820

② Second monitoring zone / 67,750 Positive GEX

67,540

38.2% retrace to 67,574 lower

② End / move to ④ / different from 4H wave turn

67,020–67,060

Structure overlap S across three timeframes + 50% retrace

④ Watch for T1 rebound / judge 4H close at 67,020

Scenario Switch Map

69,290 Breakout and hold

① Breakout-following long
Take partial profits at 69,650

67,690–69,190

Down is ② / Up cap ③
② Make it a core position by 1H close above 68,710 and sustain

67,540 Clear break

② End → ④ Breakout-following short
Protect profits at 67,540–67,890; clear break and move to ④

Today’s 4 Scenarios

① Breakout-following (Long)CONDITIONAL

Monitoring	69,240–69,290
Fulfilled	Clear breakout above 69,290 on 15m close and sustain
Entry	Pullback to breakout level, or rising 20MA vicinity with 1–5m upside reversal. Core position after 1H close at 69,400 recovery
Exit / Switch	Break 69,130 on 15m close and retest fails; full exit at 68,690. If breakout fails, re-evaluate ② or ③
Target	69,650 → 70,000. Optional extension 70,590 to be reassessed after passing both gates

Option / Structure：Hold B. 69,650 is August high and part of T1 profits; consider protection at 69,500 (+3.79 Net GEX). 70,000 +18.04. 70,590 is a reference extension based on a past starting point 62,530 and distinct from the current 4H pullback low 64,880.

② Dip-buying (Long)FOCUS

Monitoring	First monitoring zone 67,990–68,230 / Second monitoring zone 67,690–67,890
Fulfilled	After zone reach, 1–5m closes above the most recent retrace high and turns up. Nearby within 50 yen ahead / overshoot within 100 yen behind. However prioritize invalidation
Entry	Lead on 1m, add on 5m upside confirmation. Core on pullback after 1H close at 68,710 recovery
Exit / Switch	First zone exits if below 67,940. Second zone exits if below 67,540; if clear break and hold, move to ④. Full exit at 66,970
Target	68,430 → 68,690 → 68,860. After 69,290 15m close breakout and hold, extend to ①

Option / Structure：MTF alone marks both zones as B. First at 68,000 (+10.60), second at 67,750 (+6.55) with positive GEX to support A-level; reversal confirmation not omitted. Take partial profits at 68,690–68,860. Core from 68,710 to 68,860 yields 150 range; add only after confirming remaining range.

③ Retrace selling (Short)COUNTER

Monitoring	First monitoring zone 68,690–68,890 / Second monitoring zone 68,940–69,190
Fulfilled	In each zone, price slows and 1–5m candles close below local support, turning downward. Nearby within 50 yen ahead / overshoot within 100 yen behind; no extended invalidation
Entry	First zone may allow small early entry on real-time pullback; add on confirmation. Second zone confirmation. Short-term capture against the 4H upmove
Exit / Switch	First zone exits if price rises above 68,940; wait for new turn in second zone. If 69,290 breaks and holds, exit. If breakout occurs and holds, shift to ①; clear break below 67,540 indicates another path to ④. Full exit at 69,490
Target	68,430 → 68,140 → 67,790. Do not push sell aggressively in ② rebound candidate

Option / Structure：First aligns with 1H and 15m overlapping A-type structure. Second is B-type with 69,000 Call Wall and Net GEX +20.30; consider 68,860 15m close rebound and hold to reassess the downward-trend signal. Do not fix old sell rationale. Consider take-profit at 68,500 (+9.41) before T1.

④ Breakout-following (Short)CONDITIONAL

Monitoring	67,540. A break of 15m close below 67,940 remains a leading sign
Fulfilled	Clearly break below 67,540 on 15m close and hold below the lower side. Wicks-only breaks do not count
Entry	Pullback to breakout level, or near tilted 20MA with 1–5m decline reversal. Core position after 1H close below 66,970 confirmed
Exit / Switch	If price recovers above 67,720 on 15m close, exit. Full exit at 68,040. If breakout fails, reevaluate ② conditions
Target	67,060 → 66,850 → 66,560. Always secure some profit between 67,020–67,060

Option / Structure：Hold B. Watch the immediate 67,500 (+5.37) rebound and the T1 50% retrace; stay mindful of whether to invalidate for 1H close at 66,970 and the 4H wave turn at 67,020 close as separate judgments. 66,560 near 61.8% retrace around 66,546; Zero Gamma below 66,461.

Actions at This Moment

Upper Side: 68,690–69,290

Stalls at 68,690–68,890 → Zone ③ First Monitoring Zone
1H close at 68,710 recovery and hold → Consider ② core position
Recovery at 68,860 with 15m close → Update selling rationale
Stalls at 68,940–69,190 → Zone ③ Second Monitoring Zone
Break above 69,290 on 15m close and hold → Move to ①

Lower Side: 68,430–67,020

Close below 68,430 on 15m → Short-term trend down
Rebound at 67,990–68,230 → Zone ◎② First Monitoring Zone
Break 67,940 → reevaluate 67,690–67,890
Break and hold below 67,540 on 15m close → End of ②, move to ④
67,020–67,060 → watch for rebound, confirm 4H close

Risk Management

MFE protection is+200 yen to cost basis or small gain, +300 yen to secure at least +100 yen or implement trailing. Ahead of nearby milestones, advance positions: ① at 69,650, ② at 68,690–68,860, ④ at 67,020–67,060 take partial profits. For ③, move to cost basis as soon as +200 yen is reached. Actual stops should be placed just beyond turning points, with zone invalidation treated as an outer loss tolerance. Do not hold to a distant complete exit level.

Nearby Rules：Include the near-side within 50 yen and overshoot within 100 yen beyond a passed zone as monitoring targets. Prioritize invalidation price and do not widen stops for reasons of tolerance. Re-enter after zone exit in Zone ② when turn is confirmed, avoid averaging down. Positive Gamma on 10/01 shows large intraday reversals; do not assume a fixed price ceiling. Carry MFE protection and invalidation from the day session into the night, ending the cycle with a complete exit.

NK225 DAILY TRADING PLAN2026-10-02

※ MTG and price path are based on the user-provided 10/2 06:01 night close report, covering the daytime 10/2 to 10/3 06:00. Validations from prior tests come from user reports; target attainment is based on the provided price path. Actual trade records are not verified; do not treat realized P/L or MFE as confirmed. Nearby rules use the definitions clarified here.

※ Option uses the 2026-10-01 version of daily_summary / option_bias (generated 19:58; price observations 19:58 JST, spot 68,956.72; futures 69,010). Total GEX +110.6985, Zero Gamma 66,460.81. Night 10/02 futures at 68,460 have a different time point and do not reflect the entire session Gamma environment. The original MTG data lacked Option; this version supplements that. Do not deduce buyers or sellers from OI alone. Gamma changes with price (CME Group).

※ Retracement ratios: for 64,880→69,240, 23.6% = 68,211; 38.2% = 67,574; 50% = 67,060; 61.8% = 66,546 (rounded to Yen). 70,590 = 66,560 + (66,560−62,530) is a reference extension using a past starting point and is distinct from the current 4H pullback low of 64,880. MTF rank and turn judgments follow the definitions in the provided materials; A-type from Options is supplementary in this version and not a mechanical entry condition.

※ This document is provided for information and is not investment advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.