Should we have aimed for ADP? A verification starting from -2.0p.

In the previous article, GBPAUD was +20.0p.

The next one was also GBPAUD +20.0p.

From reading up to here,

you might think, “NewsBurst is going smoothly.”

So this time, we’ll present the losing trades without hiding them.

September 30.

The target was the 21:15 US ADP employment statistics.

Currency pair was USDJPY.

Since it was 0.10 lots, the trading history shows −200.

It was a loss.

However, this trade left quite an interesting material behind.

Because,

BUY filled at 21:15 ADP

First, the actual trade.

What I especially want you to notice is the exit reason.

SAFETY_TIMEOUT

This time, the loss wasn’t caused by hitting the 20pips SL that was set.

After a certain period, NewsBurst’s safety feature closed the position.

Result is −2.0p.

It ended with a small loss.

Even in actual history, −200

Here is the trading history.

September 30, 21:15.

USDJPY.

BUY.

0.10 lot.

Entry 157.053.

Exit 157.033.

Profit/loss: −200.

The previous two were:

GBPAUD SELL for +2,210.

GBPAUD BUY for +2,190.

This USDJPY BUY was −200.

The three on the screen total 4,200.

But what I want you to look at in this article is not the total profit.

ADP targeted. But the big move came after 30 minutes

On September 30, in the evening, indicators were clustered in the 21:00 hour.

At 21:15, the US ADP employment statistics.

And 15 minutes later, at 21:30, several US indicators were scheduled.

What NewsBurst aimed for this time was 21:15.

At that timing, a small price movement occurred and the BUY filled.

However, it did not lead to a large move afterward.

And about 50 seconds later.

It was closed by SAFETY_TIMEOUT.

−2.0p.

But later, looking at the chart,

In hindsight, the timeout was effective

This is hindsight.

Nevertheless, judging by the chart, USDJPY fell sharply after the timeout.

For the BUY position this time,

TP 157.253.

SL 156.853.

were set.

Entry at 157.053.

The SL was about 20 pips lower.

Afterward, the chart fell even below that SL level.

This time ended at −2.0p.

Of course,

Having a timeout feature provides safety every time.

It’s not that simple a story.

There may be cases where waiting a little longer would have yielded a profit.

But in this case,

the position was closed before a major trend reversal began.

This could be confirmed.

So, what was the problem this time

NewsBurst itself moved according to the set conditions.

Time reached.

Order prepared.

BUY filled.

Price movement didn’t extend.

A certain period passed.

Ended by SAFETY_TIMEOUT.

From the system’s view, that’s correct.

So, what should we think about?

This is what I think.

Should we target ADP itself or its 15 minutes later indicator

As in this case,

ADP at 21:15.

There are also important indicators at 21:30, 15 minutes apart.

So several approaches arise.

Target ADP as is

Since ADP alone can move prices, treat it normally as the target.

Prioritize the indicators at 21:30

Only 15 minutes apart, so skip ADP and aim for the bigger indicator release afterward.

Target ADP. But exclude days with another important indicator right after

Such rules can be considered.

For example,

trade if there’s more than 30 minutes until the next important indicator.

if within 15 minutes, skip.

There are ways to add such conditions.

Which is correct?

Not determined yet.

So, we will investigate.

I want to analyze this kind of thing

NewsBurst,

puts in a complete winning setup and then does not think about anything else.

I don’t want to make a product like that.

Rather, I want to collect cases like this one.

• How did ADP alone behave?
• How about days with another indicator 15 minutes later?
• What about multiple indicators at the same time?
• How often does the initial move stay small but a next indicator makes a big move?
• What is the ideal SAFETY_TIMEOUT duration?
• How should you set the Entry distance?
• How should TP and SL be set?
• How to handle proximate indicators?

We will refine these while looking at actual data.

It isn’t meaningful to just list winning trades

If you’re selling,

+20 pips.

+20 pips.

There was profit.

It looks better to just list such images.

But that would not be development.

Like this time,

targeted but did not extend.

That case is more valuable for the next improvement.

Why didn’t it extend?

Was the indicator choice poor?

Was the timing unsuitable?

Was it an Entry condition?

Was it a timeout condition?

How to handle proximate indicators?

We can verify these one by one.

So, we will also present losing trades normally.

This is why we are recruiting for the Phase 0 monitor

Currently, NewsBurst is recruiting Phase 0 development collaborators.

It’s not just a monitor to cheaply buy an EA.

Looking at trades like the ones above,

We want you to think about these things together.

To actually implement.

To produce results.

To win as well as to lose.

To collect data.

To adjust settings.

We’re looking for those kinds of collaborators.

Phase 0 is limited to the first 10 people, with a participation fee of 2,000 yen

To be honest.

This product will not stay at 2,000 yen forever.

NewsBurst includes:

• A mechanism to create a weekly indicator plan.
• A mechanism to organize economic indicator schedules.
• A mechanism to hand the Plan to MT5.
• A mechanism to auto-prepare stop orders before announcements.
• A mechanism to delete opposite orders when one side fills.
• TP and SL.
• SAFETY_TIMEOUT.
• Notification features.

These features are included.

And we will continue to improve them while operating in real conditions.

This time, the price is 2,000 yen because it is before official release.

It is not the price for a finished product being sold normally.

I want you to think about losing trades like this as well

Earlier it was +20.0p.

The previous one was also +20.0p.

This time it is −2.0p.

We will publish all such cases.

Rather, seeing trades like this and

thinking, “What should we do next?”

is what I want from participants.

NewsBurst is not a product that ends when someone gives you a winning setup.

That is what I want to cultivate.

What was learned this time

From this trade alone, we cannot conclude much.

But a verification theme has been found.

• Whether to target ADP alone.
• Whether to skip if an important indicator is imminent immediately after.
• Whether to prioritize the next indicator.
• Whether to include the time difference between indicators in trade conditions.
• How to use SAFETY_TIMEOUT.

All of these are subjects for future analysis.

Whenever such issues are found, NewsBurst moves closer to a finished form.

In conclusion

This time’s result is −2.0p.

A loss.

But it ended with a small loss due to SAFETY_TIMEOUT rather than a 20pips SL.

And afterward, the chart shows a large drop.

In this case,

That can be seen.

On the other hand,

Was it worth aiming for the 21:15 ADP in the first place?

There is still room for verification there.

That’s what makes it interesting.

Win.

Lose.

Not just ending there,

we will change the next rules to explain why it happened.

NewsBurst is built that way.

Phase 0 members, I hope you join us in such verifications too.