Today's Conclusion — Check in 30 seconds
Break above 66,850・67,140・67,180 to rise to 67,820,4H shows an uptrend and upturn in Wave. Meanwhile, 1H・15m show a downtrend, and the current price 67,090 is in the process of forming a pullback. The基本 is② Buy the dip. Watch for a stop at 66,850〜67,050, then 66,560〜66,760 for the first reversal.67,870If closed above and held on the 15m, then ①. If it stalls at 67,280〜67,480 or 67,590〜67,790 and reverses, then ③ is a counter-trend capture.66,510If clearly broken, then ② ends and move to ④. Do not treat Positive Gamma as the width limit; take profits and protection at key levels.
Priority Watch
② Buy the dip66,850〜67,050Upper condition met
① Breakout Buy67,870↑Counter-trend / Retracement
③ Retrace Sell67,280〜67,480Lower condition met
④ Break Sell66,510↓Backtest and Reflections for This Time
On 9/30, ◎② reversed near the zone and reached all targets.
The low of 66,250 is 50 pips above the upper bound of Zone 1 at 66,200, fitting the original report's “near the edge within 100 pips” rule. This is not the exact zone arrival. It then rose to 67,820, reaching 66,470→66,850→67,140. Confirmation of the new formation also occurred, with ① invalidated once and then a fresh breakout. ③ stalled at 66,750 briefly, but after breaking 66,850 the zone 1 withdrawal condition became a priority.
Reflection for this time：With 4H uptrend recovery and breakthrough of 67,180, ◎② continues. Confirm support flip of old high 66,850 and hold at 66,560 with a deep pullback. Do not decide reversals solely on past resistance counts; prioritize structural updates after the breakout.
Option Market Structure × MTF Snapshot
TOTAL GEX
+49.8
JPY bn / 1%｜POSITIVE
ZERO GAMMA
65,819
about 1,271 below the futures reference of 67,090
KEY POSITIVE GEX
67,000
Net GEX +9.33｜Pullback watch point
CALL WALL
69,000
Net GEX +12.42｜BUILDING
4H
Uptrend / rising wave
Turn 65,920｜Pullback low 64,880｜Return high 66,850 (X)
1H
Range / Downward wave
Turn 67,820｜Pullback low 64,880｜Return high 65,990 (X)
15m
Up / Downward wave
Turn 67,280｜Pullback low 67,010｜Return high 65,990 (X)
Option：Data generated 9/30 20:58. Bias is Neutral (score +3.5). Above targets: 67,500 (+6.08), 67,750 (+7.10), 68,000 (+11.26), 68,500 (+8.28), 69,000 (+12.42) positive GEX. Below: 67,000 (+9.33) and 66,000 (+11.54). GEX units are all in JPY bn / 1%. This is a snapshot estimate and should not be treated as fixed support/resistance.
Wave Count：Breaking 67,180 is realized; next is to confirm support flip on pullback. Monitor shallow pullback at 66,850 vs deep pullback to 66,560 separately. 69,300 is the initial count extension target; 70,590 is a reference calculation using the past starting point 62,530 and is not added to today's targets.
Today’s Important Monitoring Levels
Scenario Switch Map
67,870 Breakout Maintained① Follow breakout long
Take profit/protection ahead at 68,000
66,560〜67,790② Buy the dip priority / if retracement stalls, ③
Exit zone 1 at <66,800> and re-evaluate zone 2
66,510 Clearly Breaks② End → ④ Breakout follow-short
4H wave turn is at 65,920
Today’s 4 Scenarios
① Breakout Follow (Long)CONDITIONAL
| Watch | 67,820〜67,870 |
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| Condition | Clear breakout above 67,870 on 15m close and hold |
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| Entry | After pullback near breakout price, re-enter on 1–5 min upturn. Consider adding after 1H close above 67,980 and a rebound |
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| Exit / Switch | Dip under 67,710 on 15m close and retest failure; full exit 67,280. If breakout fails, reevaluate ② or ③ |
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| Targets | 68,450 → 69,000 → 69,300. Take partial profit/protection at 68,000 along the way |
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Option：Net GEX +11.26 at 68,000 is immediately above; staying at 68,000 gives only 20 points from 67,980, so emphasize passing resistance, pullback confirmation, and remaining range. 69,000 is a Call Wall; 69,300 is an extended target if upside continues.
② Buy the Dip (Long)FOCUS
| Watch | First monitoring zone 66,850〜67,050 / Second monitoring zone 66,560〜66,760 |
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| Condition | After zone reached, on 1–5 min close above the latest pullback high and resume upturn. 1H・15m are in a downwave, so don't buy just on arrival |
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| Entry | First zone leads on 1-minute; add on 5-minute upturn confirmation. Second zone waits for re-setup. New formation is 1H close above 67,300 and hold |
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| Exit / Switch | First zone exits if 66,800 breaks; re-evaluate second zone and re-enter on upturn. Second zone exit if 66,510 breaks. Clear break and hold to move to ④. Full exit at 66,200 |
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| Targets | 67,280 → 67,590 → 67,820. Break above 67,870 and hold then move to ① |
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Option：First zone accounts for Net GEX +9.33 at 67,000, mapping to B→A. Second zone is B; watch for support flip at 66,560. Expect slowing at 67,500 and 67,750. New formation at 67,300 and 1H wave turning up through 67,820 are separate conditions.
③ Retrace Sell (Short)COUNTER
| Watch | First monitoring zone 67,280〜67,480 / Second monitoring zone 67,590〜67,790 |
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| Condition | Each zone stalls, 1–5 min closes below the swing low and turns down. If 67,280 closes above on 15m, monitor for another turn |
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| Entry | On retreat, lead with 1-minute; add on 5-minute confirmation. Retrace only against 4H upturn |
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| Exit / Switch | First zone above 67,530 → exit and re-evaluate; second zone above 67,870 → exit. Clear breakout and hold to ①. If 66,510 breaks, move to ④. Full exit 68,070 |
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| Targets | 67,010 → 66,850 → 66,560 |
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Option：First zone accounts for Net GEX +6.08 at 67,500; second zone +7.10 at 67,750; map to A. May rebound at 67,000 (+9.33) so take partial profits at T1. 66,560〜66,850 is a pullback reversal candidate for ②, avoid over-extending the sell.
④ Breakout Follow (Short)CONDITIONAL
| Watch | 66,510. A break below 66,800 on 15m close is a pre-sign |
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| Condition | Clear break below 66,510 on 15m close and hold below. Wicks only do not count as break |
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| Entry | After pullback near breakout price, re-enter on 1–5 min downturn. Break below 66,200 on 1H close confirms the position |
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| Exit / Switch | If price recovers above 66,690 on 15m close, exit. Full exit 67,010. If breakout fails, reevaluate ② |
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| Targets | 66,000 → 65,920 → 65,730 |
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Structure / Option：With Net GEX +11.54 below at 66,000, hold B and take partial profit at T1. A break below 66,510 handles the support flip failure at 66,560 but does not negate the whole 4H upmove. Reevaluate if 4H wave breaks below 65,920 close. Zero Gamma at 65,819.
Action at Present
Upper side: 67,280〜67,870
- Restore 15m close above 67,280 → confirm short-term upturn
- Re-stall at 67,280〜67,480, 67,590〜67,790 → ③
- Restore 1H close above 67,820 → 1H upturn
- Break above 67,870 with 15m close and maintain → to ①
Lower side: 67,050〜66,510
- Rebound from 66,850〜67,050 → ◎② First monitoring zone
- Break 66,800 → exit temporarily → reassess Zone 2
- Rebound at 66,560〜66,760 → re-enter ②
- Clearly break 66,510 and hold lower → end ②, move to ④
Risk Management
MFE protection follows a common rule:Move to break-even or small profit at +200; secure at least +100 or trail at +300。① move up to 68,000 early, ③ at 67,010, ④ partly profit-taking at 66,000. Actual stops are placed just outside the turning point and do not allow losses to widen beyond a specified retreat. The near-edge zones within 100 pips from the original report remain under watch, but turning confirmation and invalidation prices are kept. On 9/30 there was a 1,570-pip price range from 66,250 to 67,820, so do not assume only Positive Gamma implies a narrow range. Zone 2 is treated as a re-entry after exit.
NK225 DAILY TRADING PLAN2026-10-01
※MTF and price path are based on the user-provided night close report as of 10/01 06:04, covering the day of 10/01 through 10/02 06:00. Prior target attainment is assessed by price path; it is not the realized PnL or fixed MFE values. The near-edge rule is applied as stated in the original report.
※Option is the 2026-09-30 version of daily_summary / option_bias (generated 20:58; price observation 20:57 JST). Use Total GEX +49.7906 and Zero Gamma 65,819.42 as of 10/01 night close futures 67,090 has a different timestamp and cannot confirm a constant Gamma environment throughout the session. Strike-based GEX uses the original report. Units are in JPY bn / 1%. Gamma varies with price.CME Group。
※69,300 is the initial extension target from the original material. 70,590 = 66,560 + (66,560 − 62,530) is a reference calculation from past starting points and is not equal to the current 4H pullback low of 64,880. Do not treat both targets as the same benchmark. Turn decision and rank for each bar follow the report's definitions.
※This document is for information purposes and not investment advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.
