【September 29】 Nikkei average fell 396 points, but the actual movement was almost flat — what the rebound from below 65,000 means

On September 29, the Nikkei Stock Average closed down by396.35 points to 65,481.27

The decline rate was 0.60%.

The opening price was 65,557.99.

The high was 65,805.08.

The low was 64,699.49.

The Nikkei average fell for the second consecutive trading day.

Looking at the numbers alone,

“Yesterday down 486, today down 396. A continued correction.”

it may seem so.

However, it is not appropriate to view today's 396-point decline as a purely bearish signal.

This is because today was

the ex-dividend date for September’s dividends

for the market participants.

Market sources estimate that the dividend ex-rights for the Nikkei average amount to

about 383 yen.

Today’s decline was 396 yen.

In other words, excluding the dividend drop,

the actual decline is only about 13 yen.

Today’s market movement should be viewed as,

not a “396-point drop” but an “almost flat, in effect” market

which is closer to the reality.

First, verify yesterday’s forecast

In yesterday’s article,

65,800

65,000

66,500

were cited as key lines.

Today it began at 65,558.

After that, it fell below 65,000,

and at one point,

64,699

was reached.

Therefore temporarily,

it entered the bearish scenario anticipated yesterday.

But what matters is

what happens after breaking 65,000.

It did not collapse to 64,500 or 64,000.

Bottoming at 64,699,

the close was 65,481.

From the low,

it recovered about 782 yen.

This is very important.

Yesterday, from the high it fell more than 1,100 yen to the low.

Today, conversely,

after a big selloff, it finished with a bounce.

The market’s finish was clearly better than yesterday.