[9/29 Tue] Dollar-Yen Morning Fixed Observation | The Main Event at 20:00 ECB President Lagarde Speech★★★
This is the morning record for Tuesday, September 29. Today's main topic is 20:00 Christine Lagarde, ECB President, remarks★★★. The current USD/JPY is 157.40, with an expected range of 156.63 to 158.45.
The answer from the previous business day was a circle. Below, the indicators, charts, and scenarios are laid out in order.
First 60 seconds ｜ Today's Economic Indicators
Today's Economic Indicators (9/29 8:30 to 9/30 8:29 JST)
| Time (JST) | Country | Indicator | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 |  | US CPI—Year over Year (Flash) | ★ | 4.6% | 4.3% |
| 17:30 |  | M4 Money Supply (MoM) | ★ | 0.1% | -0.3% |
| 17:30 | | Mortgage Applications | ★ | 56K | 56K |
| 17:30 | | Personal Loans (MoM) | ★ | 6.2B | 6.3B |
| 18:33 | | Italy 10-Year Bond Auction | ★ | — | 4.10|1.6 |
| 18:33 | | US 10-Year Bond Auction | ★ | — | 5.16|3.6 |
| 19:00 | | Nargel, President of the Bundesbank (Germany) | ★★ | — | — |
| 20:00 | | Lagarde, President of the ECB Remarks | ★★★ | — | — |
| 22:00 |  | FHFA House Price Index (MoM) | ★ | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 22:00 | | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20-City, YoY) | ★ | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| 23:00 | | CB Consumer Confidence | ★★ | 89.2 | 89.4 |
| 23:00 | | JOLTS Job Openings | ★★ | 7.23M | 7.27M |
| 翌日0:00 | | BoE MPC Member Remarks | ★ | — | — |
| 翌日0:00 | | Bowman, Fed Vice Chair (Bank Regulation) Remarks | ★ | — | — |
| 翌日0:30 | | Taylor, BoE MPC Member Remarks | ★ | — | — |
| 翌日1:40 | | Ball, Fed Governor Remarks | ★ | — | — |
| 翌日2:00 | | Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President Remarks | ★ | — | — |
| 翌日2:30 | | Mester, Cleveland Fed President Remarks | ★ | — | — |
| 翌日3:00 | | Williams, NY Fed President Remarks | ★ | — | — |
| 翌日4:00 | | Waller, Fed Governor Remarks | ★ | — | — |
| 翌日5:30 | | API Weekly Crude Stock | ★ | — | — |
Today’s Movers
Today’s main event is Lagarde’s remarks at 20:00. Since it is not an indicator that releases figures, the expectation is not about the numbers but about phrasing regarding rate cuts and inflation outlook. If perceived as hawkish, the euro tends to be bought and USD/JPY moves higher; if hawkish, the dollar tends to be favored, affecting indirectly. Also watching at 23:00 the CB Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS job openings, as European moves could be overwritten by U.S. indicators.
USD/JPY Current Position
Current Value157.40 (Previous close 157.37 / Day change +0.14)
Expected Range156.63 (Pivot S1) ～ 158.45 (Daily MA200)
Main ScenarioConsolidation in the 156.63–158.45 range. Direction awaits after 20:00 for European indicators.
AlternativeBreak above 158.45 could test 159.61; break below 156.63 could push to 155.90.
Daily Chart: Environment
The daily chart is in a range with moving averages crossing (no clear order). Three moving averages are tangled and there is no clear direction. Current value 157.40 is above the MA20 (156.28). Resistance is at 157.74 and 160.21, with support at 155.13; the 20-day high is 160.39 (9/2) and the low is 152.89 (9/8). The 0.382 retracement of the 152.89→159.03 rise sits near 156.69, close to the lower bound of the expected range. ATR14 is 134 pips; yesterday’s daily range was 135 pips, about the same.
4-Hour Chart: Key Lines
The 4-hour chart also shows three lines crossing. Upside lines at 159.03 and 159.56; downside lines at 156.76 and 154.75. The downtrend line starting at 9/2 10:00 is 158.86, and the uptrend line starting at 9/9 14:00 is 154.68. The retracement of the drop from 159.03 to 156.51 reaches 0.382 at 157.47 and 0.5 at 157.77, just above the current price. ATR14 is 50 pips.
Connecting Indicators and Charts
Focus remains on Lagarde’s remarks at 20:00. Until then, expect the 156.63–158.45 range to hold, with intraday moves likely around the pivot P (157.24). If she speaks hawkishly and the price breaks above 158.45, watch for 159.61; if it breaks below 156.63, watch for a move down to 155.90. At 23:00, CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS are also in play.
In the Video ｜ Morning Point Observation of USD/JPY
Answer to the Previous Business Day
It was a circle. The close at 157.37 remained within the expected range 156.47–158.44, preserving the main consolidation. When there is no clear direction, this pattern is easier to spot, though it can be tough for discretionary traders ^^;
Yesterday’s USD/JPY closed at 157.37, up 0.14 from the previous day. The range was 135 pips, slightly wider than average. From a high of 157.85 to a low of 156.51, there wasn’t much directional bias left for the day.
Validation Data
For Tokyo time on Tuesdays (9:00–15:00) over the past 156 sessions, the USD/JPY average range was 58 pips, and the daily average range was 117 pips. Tokyo accounts for a bit over half; the main moves happen after Europe opens, indeed ^^;
Yesterday showed a long lower wick. The next day’s bullish candle rate (over the past 10 years, 372 cases) was 61%, with an average movement of +12 pips, slightly biased higher but staying within the range ^^
Today’s Question
Will 158.45’s upper bound or 156.63’s lower bound be tested first? Which do you think?
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FX Methods Lab published on GogoJungle
※ The validation uses USD/JPY hourly data from January 2016 to March 2026. It does not indicate future performance.
Indicator data: Edited from Forex Factory / Tradays; Price: Twelve Data (as of 2026-09-29 09:00)
※ This is Stive’s personal view. Please make investment decisions on your own.