[September 28 Analysis Report] Dollar/Yen eyes 160, Euro/Dollar continues to fall
EUR/USD may continue to decline
Hello, this is Leo.
This time,I will summarize the market analysis as of September 28.
My current view is quite simple,
EUR/USD is bearish
I'm watching whether this trend continues.
EUR/USD at the daily resistance band around 1.13628
First, EUR/USD.
For those who held short positions last week,
was a very important point.
After this decline, rather than simply holding shorts,
the ideal flow was to be mindful of the resistance band and quick profit-taking
is what I think would have been best.
What matters is not only whether the direction of sale is correct.
This also needs to be watched.
If the 1.13628 vicinity does not function, the decline continues
Currently, the overall direction of EUR/USD remains bearish.
Therefore, even if there is some reaction around 1.13628,
↓
new lows again
↓
continued decline
is the flow I anticipate.
In particular, if the USD strengthens again and dollar buying intensifies,
+
breaks EUR/USD resistance band
= likely to keep short positions favorable
USD/JPY fell over the weekend, but the trend is not yet completely broken
As for USD/JPY, it closed with a drop from the high range over the weekend.
However, the Monday morning did not open with a large gap.
Therefore, at this point,
to be concluded
in my view.
Rather, if Monday's price action negates the decline and the 1-hour chart turns higher again,
I want to see USD/JPY around 160
As for me, regarding USD/JPY,
is my preference.
Of course, 160 is a significant pivot point.
Therefore, if it ascends toward around 160, I want to observe very cautiously from there.
However, until it reaches that level, as long as the 1-hour and 4-hour uptrends remain intact,
to some extent.
If USD/JPY goes up, EUR/USD and GBP/USD selling pressure may persist
In today’s market, it is easier to understand the dynamics if you look at the overall dollar strength instead of separating USD/JPY and dollar indices.
↓
Dollar buying
↓
EUR/USD and GBP/USD drop
This is the flow.
Therefore, if USD/JPY moves upward again,
as a basic stance.
Important indicators this week
This week, there are several data releases that can move the dollar.
to check labor market strength
U.S. PCE Price Index
to gauge inflation strength
U.S. GDP-related indicators
to confirm economic strength
U.S. Employment Situation (NFP)
an important factor for considering future Federal Reserve policy
In particular, when PCE and employment data are strong,
↓
USD/JPY rises
↓
EUR/USD falls
the above flow may intensify further.
Conversely, if indicators are weak, dollar buying may unwind temporarily.
My scenario for today
Base case: upside. If Monday’s price action negates Friday’s decline and the 1-hour chart turns higher again, expect around the 160 level.
Base case: downside. Check whether the daily resistance band around 1.13628 reacts. If the 1-hour chart forms a bottom and turns, longs may be closed temporarily. If it breaks below the resistance, continue selling on rallies.
As long as dollar buying persists, prioritize selling on rallies. Make decisions while confirming USD/JPY’s upward continuation.
If I simplify the current market,
EUR/USD and USD/CHF selling on rallies
This is my view.
However, EUR/USD is around the daily resistance near 1.13628.
USD/JPY is near 160.
Both are approaching major levels.
Therefore, rather than forcing a direction now,
② whether the 1-hour chart reverses
③ whether USD/JPY rises again
I want to judge by watching these factors.
Currently, I see USD/JPY buying + dollar selling.
I will continue to use this flow as the main axis.
“Leo FX college”
You can receive free information useful for daily learning, such as questions and consultations about trading, study materials, and the latest announcements.