Be careful with end-of-month and start-of-month flows
This Week's Schedule
This week, the week of the month’s switch, an employment report is scheduled for the weekend. The previously released minutes of the Bank of Japan show a stance that has deepened from late July, and there was nothing particularly novel as of September. The view that subsidies are significantly pushing down consumer prices continues. It is not different from the recent Bank of Japan meeting in that they expect a level above 3% in the second half of the year. As exemplified by the employment data, it is another employment week with the usual JOLTS, ADP employment data, and NFP, but the unemployment rate is 4.1%, and employment is no longer given as much weight.
The PCE deflator has a somewhat different flavor than before. Typically, it can be estimated to a considerable extent from CPI and PPI, so for this month the data would usually show a slightly accelerated pace, but with the revision of the NIPA (National Income and Product Accounts), the benchmark itself changes.