NK225 Daily Trading Plan|Today's monitoring levels and 4 scenarios【9/26】
NK225 PROFESSIONAL DAILY
NK225 Daily Trading Plan|Today’s Watch Levels and 4 Scenarios
Option Market Structure × MTF Dow Theory
Today’s Verdict — Quick Check in 30 Seconds
4H showsuptrend and rising wavesretrace, with the 65,090 from the 9/24 night serving as the 44% retracement low. Only the 1H chart holds a down-move after a 50-yen drop from 66,520, and a breakout above 66,590 aligns the three-hour direction. Basically:② Buy on dips prioritized. If rebounds occur at 66,250–66,450, then 66,450-66,450, and next at 65,900–66,100 for ②.66,640If clearly broken and held on a 15m close, then ①. If 66,680–66,880 and 66,930–67,130 stall, then ③ but only for counter-trend pullbacks.65,850If clearly broken, switch to ④.
Priority Watch
② Buy the dip66,250–66,450When upside conditions are met
① Breakout buy66,640↑Counter-trend
③ Sell on rebounds66,680–66,880When downside conditions are met
④ Breakout sell65,850↓Previous Validation and Application to Today
On 9/25, ◎③ did not fulfill, ② achieved all targets, and ① also hit T1.
② reversed near 65,300 to 66,190, and night session rose to 66,590. The zone design added earlier—anticipating a pullback to 38.2–50% after a large move—worked, but ◎ selection prioritized the temporary dip in the 4H wave, placing it on the short side.
② reversed near 65,300 to 66,190, and night session rose to 66,590. The zone design added earlier—anticipating a pullback to 38.2–50% after a large move—worked, but ◎ selection prioritized the temporary dip in the 4H wave, placing it on the short side.
Option Market Structure × MTF Snapshot
GAMMA REGIME
POSITIVE
Momentum-bearing restraint
TOTAL GEX
+20.4bn
Shifted to positive
KEY SUPPORT
66,000
Net GEX +9.53
ZERO GAMMA
65,848
Current value is on the positive side
4H
Uptrend / Upward wave
Turn 65,230 | Support 62,530 | Return high 66,780 (X)
1H
Range / Downward move
Turn 66,520 | Support 65,090 | Return high 66,070 (X)
15m
Range / Upward wave
Turn 66,350 | Support 65,940 (X) | Return high 66,590
Today’s Important Watch Levels
66,640
Upper-break criteria
Clear breakout and hold → to ①
66,680–66,880
Old 4H return high 66,780
③ First watch zone
66,930–67,130
67,000 positive GEX + high band
③ Second watch zone
66,250–66,450
15m turn 66,350
② First watch zone / Core
65,900–66,100
66,000 with Net GEX +9.53
② Second watch zone
65,850
Down-break criteria
Zero Gamma just below / move to ④
Scenario Switching Map
66,640 Breakout and hold
① Breakout-following Long
65,900–67,130
Buy on dips / Rebound in high price area
65,850 Clear break
④ Breakout-following Short
Today’s 4 Scenarios
Actions at Present Moment
Upper Side: 66,520–67,180
- Clear breakout above 66,640 and hold → to ①
- Stalling at 66,680–66,880 → ③ First watch zone
- Stalling at 66,930–67,130 → ③ Second watch zone
Lower Side: 66,450–65,850
- Bounce from 66,250–66,450 → ② First watch zone
- Bounce from 65,900–66,100 → ② Second watch zone
- Clear break below 65,850 → end ②, go to ④
Risk Management
As a common rule for MFE protection,+200 price moves to entry or small profit, +300 moves to secure at least +100 or implement trailing. Gamma Regime is turning positive, with positive GEX lining up around 66,375–66,750. Rather than a single-direction large move, base targets closer with reversals/sideways, securing partial profits at key levels. Be mindful of gaps at the start of the week, and if a zone is left behind, avoid forcing entries and switch to waiting for the ① return.
NK225 DAILY TRADING PLAN2026-09-28
※This report is prepared based on the night closing price at 06:00 on 9/26 and targets intraday 9/28 to night close 9/29 06:00.
※Based on previous validation, the ◎ selection rule in the 38.2–50% retrace band has been updated.
※This document is for information purposes and does not constitute trading advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.