【FX Course】Know the "Loss Pattern" before the Winning Pattern
Learn the “Losing Pattern”
Hello, this is Leo.
When you trade,
“I want to learn more precise methods”
Many people think this way.
Of course, learning shapes that tend to win is important.
But I believe what’s even more important is
because the winning patterns may not work in certain market conditions.
However, with your losses,
the same habits tend to recur
over and over.
Loss trades have “causes”
When looking back at a losing trade,
some people stop at
“it hit the stop loss”
and end there.
・Was it opposite to the higher time frame?
・Was it very close to a high/low?
・Did you chase after a sharp rise or fall?
・Was the risk-reward ratio poor?
・Was it just before an important indicator?
If you look at it this way,
“Losing doesn’t mean a bad trade”
This is quite important.
For example,
・Pullbacks are also clean
・Stop loss placement is clear
・RR is ample
・Entry is according to the rules
and still ended up being stopped out.
This isn’t a terrible trade in my view.
In the market, even with all conditions met, you can lose.
Conversely, even if you happen to make a profit,
・RR is poor
・Just before an indicator
・Entered based on intuition
then, even if you win, you wouldn’t want to replicate it.
Look at the process, not the outcome
When reviewing trades, many people
or if it caused a loss
This is what they look at.
But that alone doesn’t reveal improvement points.
② Was the entry position good?
③ Was there justification for the stop loss?
④ Was there enough room to take profit?
⑤ Was it in accordance with the rules?
Profit or loss comes after that.
Loss Pattern ① Chasing after moves
First ischasing after a movesince
↓
You buy thinking it will go up
↓
After it has already run its course
↓
A small pullback leads to a stop loss
This pattern, even though the direction is correct,
the entry position is wrong.
Loss Pattern ② Entering right before a high/low
Next most common is
selling just above the most recent low
For example, the direction may be correct.
But, there is a high just above.
From there, it rebounds and you get stopped out.
In this case, the direction wasn’t wrong.
Just looking at how far to the next high/low before entry can change things considerably.
Loss Pattern ③ Entering opposite to the higher time frame
If you only look at the 15-minute chart, it seems to rise cleanly.
But on the daily or 4-hour chart, it’s downtrend.
Buying in that state leads you to be caught by the pullback in the higher time frame.
This happens often too.
I think it’s important not to break this order of viewing.
Loss Pattern ④ Trying to recover
This is the most dangerous.
↓
Re-enter immediately
↓
Lose again
↓
Increase the lot size
↓
Lose even more
The first loss may have been just a normal stop out.
But the subsequent trades may be entered not by the market but by emotion.
If this happens, one loss can spread to three or four losses.
When facing a losing streak, you should look at not only the method but also the psychology
With a losing streak, it’s easy to think
“This method may be hopeless.”
But what you should first check is
for example, even with three losses in a row
2nd: just before the high
3rd: chasing entry
then it’s more about how you use the method
rather than a problem with the method
Classifying losing trades reveals patterns
What I recommend is to categorize losing trades.
B:Entry was early
C:RR was poor
D:Opposite to the higher time frame
E:Before an indicator
F:Emotional trading
If you record this 10 or 20 times, you’ll clearly see where you are losing.
If, among 20 losses, 8 are from chasing entries,
That’s all you need to do.
Rather than increasing winning patterns, reduce the types of losses
When trying to improve trading,
・New indicators
・New signals
you might want to add.
But I think the opposite.
by eliminating emotional trading
・Don’t buy right before a high
・Don’t chase after sharp rises
This alone can reduce trading frequency.
Still, it can improve performance.
If it were me, I’d note the reason for losses in one line
Your trading diary doesn’t need to be lengthy.
“Only 8 pips above the high”
“Entered in a rush after a sharp rise”
“Entered again right after stopping out”
That level of detail is enough.
What matters is that, when you look back later, you can see how many times you repeated the same mistake.
Hence,
Increase the good losses
A slightly odd way to phrase it, but in trading,
I think increasing the good losses
is also important.
In accordance with the rules
Clear stop loss placement
Respect money management
RR also checked
Entered emotionally
Has increased lot size
Moved stop loss
Chased
To become stronger in trading, increasing winning patterns is important.
But more than that,
What makes you lose, where you lose, why you lost.
Was it in accordance with the rules?
Or was it due to your own habits?
Distinguish these things.
And keep削りな losses by eliminating repeating ones.
by not repeating the same losses
If you want to trade long-term, I think this is more important.
“Leo FX college”
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