USD/JPY remains bearish in the medium to long term. For shorts, target a swing; for longs, take a quick bounce.

The USD/JPY may rebounce at times, but my medium-to-long-term downtrend view has not changed.

What I separate here is how I hold shorts and longs.

Shorts are imagined as held for swings. Longs are imagined as capturing a quick rebound.

I don’t enter both with the same mindset or aim to extend them in the same way. In particular, I watch longs very cautiously.

Even if it rebounds, I won’t change my medium-to-long-term perspective

When I see the near-term rise, I might think, “It won’t fall anymore,” or “It will go up from here.”

However, I separate short-term rebounds from the medium-to-long-term direction.

Even when looking down, there are moments of strong rebounds. Capturing that rebound and aiming for upside in the medium-to-long term are separate things.

In the past, when I had a short-term buying bias, I didn’t change my medium-to-long-term down bias.

Even if there is a moment to take a rebound with a long, the overall direction remains downward.

When you mix these, a long you entered with a short-term mindset may end up being held longer than intended.

Shorts aim for downside price movement with a swing

According to my current thinking, shorts are what I hold in line with the medium-to-long-term view.

I don’t want to end with only small moves; if conditions align, I aim for downside price movement with a swing.

However, just because I am taking a down view, I don’t think you should sell anywhere.

If you chase a big drop and sell, you may suffer on the rebound afterward. Not only the direction but also where you enter matters.

Also, holding with a swing is not the same as ignoring it when prices move against you.

Even if the direction is down, I reassess if the reasons for entry collapse.

Downward bias is not a reason to avoid stop-losses.

Longs: keep rebounds short. Be very cautious

Even when aiming for longs, in my view they are short-term positions to capture rebounds.

Rather than chasing ongoing gains, I envision taking what can be taken and finishing there.

If you stick with the idea that it will go further and extend your gain after a rebound into profits, it becomes a trade different from the one you initially planned.

That’s why I plan to take longs as shorter positions from the outset.

I won’t turn a long entered for a rebound into a swing merely because prices fell.

Holding while hoping “it will come back” is not aligned with my current view.

As I remain biased to the downside in the medium-to-long term, I want to focus longs on situations where conditions line up rather than actively pursuing them. I think it’s okay not to touch positions in difficult judgment moments.

Set the direction and the holding time together

If you think only in terms of “buy or sell,” a short-term buying bias and a medium-to-long-term selling bias may look inconsistent.

But the price action and the timing I’m aiming for are different.

My current framework is threefold.

• The medium-to-long-term view remains downward.

• Shorts, if conditions align, are held as swings.

• Longs: capture rebounds briefly. Choose very carefully.

Even for the same USD/JPY, the way you take profits or exit changes depending on what you entered for.

I think it’s important to organize your mindset before entering, not to change your perspective after you’ve entered.

To those who want to learn my method and how I assemble judgments

For those who want to be able to build such judgments themselves, I recommend a complete set that includes my method materials and one-on-one consulting.

The two GOLD and USD/JPY indicators are bothfor short-term use, scalpel-leaning, using 5-minute and 15-minute charts.Please consider the medium-to-long-term swing and short-term swing separately by use.

Then, instead of stopping at looking at arrows, you can learn my moving average method and confirm unclear parts with individualized consulting.

“My perspective matched, but my holding method wavered.”
“I intended to capture rebounds, but I ended up holding too long.”

If you have these concerns, please check the product page for the contents of the materials and support.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/rooms/78023?via=users_products