[Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260927]
【Dream toward FX Major Currencies Market Environment Awareness & Memo 20260927】
September 27, Sunday.
Good morning.
Today the southern Kanto region still has a dull sky.
The typhoon has passed,
but it seems another typhoon may come again.
As a Chiba resident
the image that disasters are never far away has grown stronger.
I pray that nothing happens.
Well, since it's month-end
irregular movements seem likely.
USD/JPY that moved to a rapid dollar strength
as far as technicals show,
might form a large bearish candlestick?
That is the view.
In trades from Friday night,
I got 50 pips in AUD/JPY
and escaped.
I feel that exit timing is still the most important.
Now, let's confirm.
It is the number of bars at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly 21st bar / 13
Weekly 3rd cycle 14th bar / 9
Weekly volatility 136 pips
HPC 1st cycle 68th bar / 43 or
HPC 2nd cycle 2nd bar
4HC 1st cycle 6th bar / 6
This is how I interpret it.
I wonder if the daily chart has closed?
I suspect so.
If on Monday a bottom forms again,
that would be where the daily chart switches.
However, 4HC is a bit long.
I am looking at a possibility that it may rise further
with a view that it might continue upward.
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20260927_FX Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/yyttUHkL4zY
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly 25th bar
Weekly 4th cycle 3rd bar / 2 or
Weekly 4th cycle 21st bar / 12LT
Weekly volatility 468 pips
Daily 1st cycle 14th bar / 13 or
HPC 2nd cycle 40th bar / 23LT
4HC 3rd cycle 83rd bar / 77
That is how I view it.
I believe we are approaching the 4HC milestone.
If it continues to fall below EMA75,
and forms a bottom,
I see this as the timing to move to 4HC 2.
Future minor rise is possible, but
the first scenario is a decline without a new high, forming a bearish candlestick.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly 21st bar / 13
Weekly 3rd cycle 14th bar / 9
Weekly volatility 195 pips
HPC 1st cycle 68th bar / 43
4HC 1st cycle 7th bar / 5
That is how I view it.
It seems we are at a 4HC milestone.
If the US dollar weakens in the future,
daily chart switching can be expected.
There may be a temporary dollar weakness/yen weakness
scenario.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly 26th bar / 21
Weekly 4th cycle 21st bar / 13LT
Weekly volatility 190 pips
Daily HPC 2nd cycle 40th bar / 15LT
4HC 3rd cycle 60th bar / 27
That is how I view it.
I believe 4HC can close at any time.
If EUR/USD rises,
USD/JPY rises,
cross yen would have a bullish outlook.
Having encountered the milestone of 4HC
I think it may rise from here?
That is my view.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly 26th bar / 24
Weekly 4th cycle 22nd bar / 12
Weekly volatility 288 pips
Daily 3rd or HPC 2nd 40th bar / 17
4HC 3rd cycle 83rd bar / 49
That is how I view it.
4HC is entering an extended pattern, so
closing can occur at any time. It is desirable to consider future bullish outlook.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly 18th bar / 15
Weekly 3rd cycle 8th bar / 4
Weekly volatility 206 pips
Daily 1st cycle 40th bar / 20
4HC 3rd cycle 60th bar / 27
That is how I view it.
Weekly milestones differ from other cross-yen pairs.
Since 4HC either 2nd or 3rd has broken the starting point,
the downside view continues, but
reaching a milestone suggests potential for future bullish moves.
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20260927_FX Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/yyttUHkL4zY
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DXY 101.034 -0.21%
US10Y 5.167 -0.79%
DJI 51834 points +479
US500 +0.61%
WTI 95.915 dollars
BRN 97.44 dollars
Nikkei 225 66363 yen +850
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