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Hikaru
09/26/2026 09:30
Release： 09/26/2026 09:30
Update： 09/26/2026 09:30
Hikaru
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : 7-10 years
Investment amount : 1 million - 5 million JPY
Nice to meet you. I have 9 years of investing experience and have been conducting market analysis with FX as my main focus. Leveraging my experience, I am creating FX indicators that make buy/sell decisions easier to understand. What I value most is "clarity," "ease of use," and "minimal hesitation in judgment." To ensure even beginners can use them intuitively, I strive to express complex information as simply as possible. While there is no absolute in the market, I hope to help create an environment where you can make calm, well-reasoned decisions instead of relying solely on intuition. I will respond as politely as possible to any questions or consultations. Thank you very much.
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Will gold rise again? Considering future prospects from U.S. rate hikes and gold demand

Written on September 26, 2026. This article analyzes the outlook for spot gold priced in dollars (XAU/USD) over the coming weeks to months.

When considering the future of gold, what I want to focus on now is whether the downward pressure from US interest rates and the dollar can ease.Whether the downward pressure from U.S. interest rates and the dollar eases.

Central bank gold purchases and investor money inflows are supportive factors for gold. On the other hand, the United States raised interest rates in September. Even with demand to own gold, continued higher interest rates can become a price burden.

In this article, we believe that a short-term rebound requires cautious confirmation, and the direction several months ahead will depend on whether financial tightening or demand for gold grows stronger.

First, let's confirm the current position.

According to Reuters, as of 18:05 GMT on September 25 and 03:05 JST on September 26, spot gold was $4,282.98 per troy ounce. At that time, it had fallen about 2.1% for the week. This is a mid-trade reference value. September 26 is a Saturday, and this should not be treated as the real-time price for the weekend or the settled weekly close.Reuters coverage / MarketScreener reprint

Judging the price only by this is premature. To change the market view, one must confirm whether the factors pushing the decline have changed.

The Federal Reserve on September 16 raised the policy rate target by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75–4.00%. The statement notes that inflation remains high.FRB - FOMC statement, September 16

Gold itself does not yield interest. When yields on US Treasuries and other instruments rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold becomes relatively larger. This is why rising interest rates tend to weigh on gold. Reuters also cites rising US Treasury yields as a factor weighing on the current gold market.Reuters coverage / MarketScreener reprint

What to watch here is the relationship between inflation and gold.

Inflation fears remind investors of gold's value as a store of value. However, if further rate hikes to curb inflation are anticipated, gold faces headwinds. News that inflation indicators were strong alone does not determine the subsequent direction of gold prices.

What to monitor is how US interest rates and the dollar move in response to the indicators and how gold prices react. For rates, in addition to normal government bond yields, real yields—taking expected inflation into account—also matter. This is a moment to verify the material's meaning alongside price movements.

On the other hand, there is demand supporting gold.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks’ net purchases of gold in Q2 2026 (April–June) were about 289 tons. However, overall demand for the first half of the year was at its lowest since 2022. It is necessary to consider both a quarterly rebound and a six-month deceleration.WGC - Central bank demand in Q2 2026

Additionally, in August there was about $18 billion inflow into physical-backed gold ETFs worldwide. Gold ETFs provide clues to the movement of investment funds into gold. However, this is an August figure and does not indicate that the same pace of buying continued into late September.WGC - Gold ETF activity in August 2026

From these, this article views mid-term demand as still supported. However, purchases by central banks alone do not guarantee near-term price floors.The existence of demand and the conditions for continued price rises should be considered separately.

With this in mind, the article envisions three possible developments going forward. All are conditional scenarios for this article and do not estimate their probabilities.

1.Development that considers a restart of the uptrend

US inflation indicators settle and the alert for further rate hikes subsides. The rise in US rates and the dollar loses momentum, and funds flow into gold continues. If this combination holds, it supports gold’s rise.

Next, I want to see whether the gains after the data release hold into the next trading day and whether rates and the dollar fail to rise again. If gold price merely ticks higher temporarily while rates and the dollar revert to their previous uptrend, I will refrain from judging that the upturn has resumed.

2.A development with no clear direction, ranging

While central bank and ETF demand supports prices, high US yields cap the upside. Each economic indicator can shift expectations for rate hikes, causing gold to oscillate.

In this case, rather than tracking days when prices rose or fell, observe weekly price movements to see which way they are widening. When US rates and the dollar do not align and gold remains within recent price ranges, it is difficult to determine a direction.

3.A continuing downtrend

Inflation remains strong and warnings of further rate hikes intensify. If US rates and the dollar rise and funds flow out of gold ETFs combine, downside pressure on gold could strengthen.

Next, see whether the rebound also makes new lows, or whether rate hikes and outflows abate and gold prices stop making new lows; if so, reevaluate a continuation of the decline.

In considering these branches, October’s release of US jobs and prices is essential. Official dates schedule the September employment data forOctober 2, 21:30 (Japan time), and the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) forOctober 14, 21:30 (Japan time). Both times convert from Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) to Japan Time.U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - 2026 release schedule

Next FOMC meeting is planned for October 27–28 local US time. The results for employment and prices will indicate how the market views future monetary policy.FRB—Upcoming schedule

When looking at indicators, in addition to the strength of the numbers, it is important to note how the market’s expectations compare with what was anticipated. A strong result may elicit a limited reaction if it has already been priced in. By looking at the result together with subsequent movements in rates, the dollar, and gold prices, it becomes easier to update the scenario.

From now on, this article’s view on gold is thatto confirm a short-term upturn, it is important that downward pressure from US rates and the dollar easesin the medium term, it will also be important to verify whether central bank purchases and inflows of investment funds continue.

Do not consider a price decline as cheap just because prices have fallen, and do not view a rise as a new uptrend merely because prices rose. Track the changing conditions behind them. I believe this perspective will be helpful when considering future directions.

This article is intended to provide information and does not advocate a specific buy or sell action. The scenarios described do not guarantee future price movements. Yen-denominated gold prices and each company’s CFD prices differ from the dollar-denominated spot price cited in the body due to exchange rates, price feeds, and trading conditions.