Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Macro & Industry Weekly - Week 4 of September
TOKYO STOCK EXCHANGE Prime Macro & Industry Weekly
This Week’s Macro FactorsAs of September 25
+ means: Interest rate rising / yen depreciation / economy expanding / geopolitics increasing risk / resources rising. 0 is the 1-year average.
This Week’s Summary
The most active factor this week wasInterest ratesrising from +0.63 to +1.15 (+0.52).
Geopolitics remained almost unchanged from last week (change less than 0.10).
The notable level is Interest rate +1.15 (rising rates).
Top-rated industries by sector scoreInsurance, Banking, Wholesale, and the bottom are Electric & Gas, Food, and Land Transportation.
Industries that moved more than 3 places: Pharmaceuticals 27th→20th (mostly due to rates), Services 16th→21st (mostly due to rates), Information & Communications 16th→21st (mostly due to rates), Securities & Commodity Futures 1st→4th (mostly due to rates).
Series that moved more than 1σ compared to usual over the week: US 10-year real yield (TIPS) +0.17pt (+2.5σ), US yield curve (10y-2y) +0.11pt (+2.3σ), USD/JPY +1.72% (+1.4σ).
Industry Score Ranking33 industries
| Rank | Industry | Number of stocks | Score | −2 0 +2 | Previous week | Change | Main factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Insurance | 11 | +0.94 | 3rd | ↑2 | Rates ↑ | |
| 1 | Banking | 69 | +0.94 | 3rd | ↑2 | Rates ↑ | |
| 3 | Wholesale | 120 | +0.92 | 2nd | ↓1 | Rates ↑ | |
| 4 | Securities & Commodities | 19 | +0.88 | 1st | ↓3 | Rates ↑ | |
| 5 | Other Financials | 21 | +0.60 | 6th | ↑1 | Rates ↑ | |
| 6 | Nonferrous Metals | 20 | +0.59 | 5th | ↓1 | Resources ↓ | |
| 7 | Machinery | 111 | +0.54 | 7th | → | Yen depreciation ↑ | |
| 8 | Transportation Equipment | 38 | +0.52 | 9th | ↑1 | Yen depreciation ↑ | |
| 9 | Steel | 20 | +0.38 | 8th | ↓1 | Yen depreciation ↑ | |
| 10 | Oil & Coal Products | 5 | +0.32 | 10th | → | Resources ↓ | |
| 10 | Mining | 4 | +0.32 | 10th | → | Resources ↓ | |
| 12 | Precision Instruments | 27 | +0.31 | 12th | → | Yen depreciation ↑ | |
| 13 | Electrical Equipment | 123 | +0.19 | 13th | → | Yen depreciation ↑ | |
| 14 | Shipping | 5 | +0.14 | 15th | ↑1 | Yen depreciation ↑ | |
| 15 | Chemicals | 115 | +0.00 | 14th | ↓1 | Rates ↓ | |
| 16 | Rubber Products | 10 | -0.09 | 18th | ↑2 | Yen depreciation ↑ | |
| 17 | Other Products | 37 | -0.27 | 19th | ↑2 | Rates ↓ | |
| 17 | Glass & Stone Products | 22 | -0.27 | 19th | ↑2 | Rates ↓ | |
| 17 | Metal Products | 26 | -0.27 | 19th | ↑2 | Rates ↓ | |
| 20 | Pharmaceuticals | 31 | -0.42 | 27th | ↑7 | Rates ↓ | |
| 21 | Services | 143 | -0.43 | 16th | ↓5 | Rates ↓ | |
| 21 | Information & Communications | 164 | -0.43 | 16th | ↓5 | Rates ↓ | |
| 23 | Warehousing & Transportation | 9 | -0.45 | 23rd | → | Rates ↓ | |
| 23 | Textile | 17 | -0.45 | 23rd | → | Rates ↓ | |
| 25 | Real Estate | 48 | -0.60 | 22nd | ↓3 | Rates ↓ | |
| 26 | Retail | 129 | -0.64 | 26th | → | Rates ↓ | |
| 27 | Air Transport | 2 | -0.76 | 25th | ↓2 | Yen depreciation ↓ | |
| 28 | Construction | 70 | -0.83 | 29th | ↑1 | Rates ↓ | |
| 29 | Fishery & Agriculture | 6 | -0.91 | 30th | ↑1 | Rates ↓ | |
| 30 | Pulp & Paper | 10 | -0.94 | 31st | ↑1 | Rates ↓ | |
| 31 | Rail Transportation | 36 | -0.97 | 28th | ↓3 | Rates ↓ | |
| 32 | Food & Beverages | 68 | -1.00 | 32nd | → | Rates ↓ | |
| 33 | Electricity & Gas | 22 | -1.35 | 33rd | → | Rates ↓ |
Scores range from −2 to +2. A plus indicates a favorable wind in current market conditions; minus indicates headwinds. The stock count is the number of Prime stocks in that industry. The top 5 and bottom 5 are highlighted. Up arrows in main factors indicate an increase in favorable winds.
This Week’s Moving SeriesDaily and by magnitude of change
| Series | Value | Weekly Change | Compared to usual | Effective factors | Date of value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-year TIPS yield | 2.85 | +0.17pt | +2.5σ | Rates + | 09/24 |
| US Yield Curve (10y-2y) | 0.36 | +0.11pt | +2.3σ | Rates + | 09/25 |
| USD/JPY | 158.81 | +1.72% | +1.4σ | Yen depreciation + | 09/25 |
| WTI crude | 92.41 | -7.87% | -1.2σ | Resources − | 09/25 |
| US High Yield Spread | 2.80 | +0.12pt | +1.1σ | Economy − | 09/24 |
| VIX | 14.87 | +0.41% | Geopolitics + | 09/25 |
Compared to usual means that weekly change is how many times the usual weekly change over the last year. Bold indicates changes exceeding ±1σ. Interest rates and spreads are shown in point changes (points, not percentages). US series are released with a 1-2 business day lag, so their value dates are included.
Monthly SeriesLatest published values
| Series | Value | MoM Change | Effective factors | Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan Long-Term Rates (10-year) | 2.94 | +0.15 | Rates + | Aug 2026 |
| Real Effective Exchange Rate (BIS) | 65.04 | -0.38 | Jul 2026 | |
| OECD Leading Economic Indicators Japan | 100.30 | +0.01 | Aug 2026 | |
| OECD Leading Economic Indicators US | 100.96 | +0.06 | Aug 2026 | |
| OECD Leading Economic Indicators China | 98.10 | -0.14 | Aug 2026 | |
| US CPI (YoY) | 3.35 | +0.29 | Aug 2026 | |
| Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) | 117.92 | -49.61 | Aug 2026 | |
| Copper (LME) | 13,542.82 | -9.22 | Jul 2026 | |
| US CPI (YoY) | 3.35 | +0.05 | Aug 2026 |
Monthly series take 1–3 months to publish. Weekly factor movements mainly derive from the daily series.
Factor TrendsLast 6 weeks, each Friday
| Factor | 08/21 | 08/28 | 09/04 | 09/11 | 09/18 | 09/25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest rates | +1.09 | +0.46 | +0.65 | +0.69 | +0.63 | +1.15 |
| Yen depreciation | +0.23 | +0.66 | +0.22 | -0.07 | +0.24 | +0.64 |
| Economy | +0.51 | +0.65 | +0.48 | +0.49 | +0.47 | +0.30 |
| Geopolitics | -0.88 | -0.81 | -0.73 | -0.51 | -0.71 | -0.65 |
| Resources | +0.59 | +0.57 | +0.85 | +0.99 | +0.94 | +0.73 |
How to Read This Report
This Week’s Explanatory VideoTSE Prime Macro Weekly, Week 4 of Sep 2026
The contents of this report are also explained in a video.

This report is a mechanical整理 of market conditions based on macro indicators and the sensitivities of the 33 TSE industries, and does not recommend buying or selling any specific stocks or industries. Industry scores do not predict future stock prices, nor do they verify past performance. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.