[September 26 Analysis Report] USD/JPY retreats near 160; next week the direction of USD/JPY is key

Hello, this is Leo.

This time,A recap of the market from September 21–25, 2026 and a look at next weekwill be summarized.

This week was quite straightforward,

I think it was.

In particular, USD/JPY rose quite clearly in the first half of the week, reaching the 159s briefly.

It has come to a position where the 160 level is in sight as a major milestone.

However, toward the weekend, a flip to yen buying occurred, and USD/JPY fell from high levels.

I think this was a very important move for thinking about next week as well.

Dollar/Yen showed a fairly straightforward rise in the first half

First, USD/JPY.

From what we were seeing last week

This scenario also functioned solidly this week.

After clearly breaking above 155 yen,

It rose up to there.

For the first half of the week, I think it was a market easy to buy.

But the flow changed near 160

However, as it approached 160, the situation began to change.

The 160 level is not just a simple round-number.

and increasingly in focus.

In fact, on Friday the yen was bought back substantially.

So, viewing this weekend’s USD/JPY decline as merely a weekend unwind is a bit weak.

Of course, there were profits and position adjustments before the weekend.

But in addition to that,

could have converged.

EUR/USD and USD/CHF were easier to trade in the first half

On the other hand, dollar pairs such as eurodollar and pound dollar were quite straightforward in the first half of the week.

Basically,

if you chased it, it was a relatively easy market to capture.

Dollar buying was strong, while the euro and pound were being sold, so,

which progressed together as a clear dollar-buying environment.

Why dollar crosses rose on Friday

However, on Friday, dollar crosses moved higher again.

Here too, I think not only weekend settlements but also broad dollar selling played a big role.

Especially, when USD/JPY fell from highs and yen buying kicked in, there was a temporary brake on overall dollar gains.

Then, with weekend profit-taking piling on,

which is natural to think.

However, looking only at Friday's rise,

I still wouldn't say that dollar crosses have entered a buy regime.

My view is to prioritize the rebound within the downtrend from earlier in the week.

This week, I would first focus on that perspective.

Next week, USD/JPY remains the key

From here, the most important thing for next week is clearly

USD/JPY

I believe.

The current market broadens the direction of USD/JPY to other currencies as well.

That is the trend.

So, my view is to

Conversely, if USD/JPY carries Friday’s decline into the hourly or 4-hour charts with a clear downtrend, I will approach dollar crosses on the short side with caution.

The Monday start of USD/JPY is crucial

Since Friday ended at a significant drop, the first thing to observe is

the Monday start

.

Will Friday’s drop be fully negated and push higher again?

Or, after a bounce, will new lows be seen?

This will largely change the view.

Cross yen is notable for finishing the week with a bearish candle

And then, cross yen pairs.

Until last week, I had been watching the potential for weekly pullbacks to buy into the week’s push.

In fact, there were some rebounds midweek.

But if the weekly candle ends bearish this week, I want to adjust my view a bit.

The reason is that many cross yen pairs have already broken down on the daily chart.

If so, there is a significant chance of a return to the daily downtrend.

Cross yen does not mean “sell from Monday”

However, bearish weekly candles do not mean you should suddenly sell everything on Monday.

What I want to see is the

for example,

then it becomes easier to think about selling.

Conversely, even if the weekly candle is bearish, if the hourly and 4-hour charts keep rising, there is no need to rush to sell.

Next week is heavily shaped by PCE and US employment data

And next week, on the data front, is very important.

Next week’s employment and inflation-related data will be crucial for judging the Fed’s future rate path.

If PCE is strong, dollar buying may resume

If PCE comes in stronger than expected and inflationary pressures remain high,

which could lead to

returning to the same pattern seen in the first half of this week.

Conversely, if PCE is weak and employment data is weak

could strengthen.

My outlook for next week

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