NK225 Daily Trading Plan|Today's monitoring levels and 4 scenarios【9/25】
NK225 PROFESSIONAL DAILY
NK225 Daily Trading Plan|Today's monitored levels and 4 scenarios
Option Market Structure × MTF Dow Theory
Today's conclusion — check in 30 seconds
The current value 65,490 is around the upper A-rank66,070and the lower A-rank65,160sandwiched in between. The 4H is a range / downward wave, the 1H shows a downtrend with an upward wave, and the 15m shows an uptrend and a downward wave with inconsistent candle directions. Basically③ Rebound selling prioritized. If it stalls at 65,690–65,890, and then 65,960–66,160, that’s scenario ③. On the downside, if it rebounds at 65,090–65,290 or 64,730–64,930, then it’s scenario ②.66,210breaks above and holds → ①,64,680being clearly broken → move to ④.
Priority watch
③ Rebound selling65,690〜65,890When the upside condition is met
① Breakout buy66,210↑Counter
② Downside rebound buy65,090〜65,290When the downside condition is met
④ Breakout sell64,680↓Previous validation and reflection for this time
9/24: ② reached T1; ◎③ direction was correct but not fulfilled.
② reversed near 65,490 to reach T1. Meanwhile, ③ stalled at the return high of 66,070, but did not reach the zone 1 lower bound 66,170 by 100 yen, so not fulfilled. The actual return was a 23.6% retrace to 66,052, nearly matching.
Corrections from this time:After a strong one-way move, expand the tail of the rebound sell zone to 23.6% retracement.66,052 23.6% retrace in the 2nd watch zone for③, 4H reversal = 1H rebound high 66,070, Net GEX +8.88 at 66,000 overlapping..
② reversed near 65,490 to reach T1. Meanwhile, ③ stalled at the return high of 66,070, but did not reach the zone 1 lower bound 66,170 by 100 yen, so not fulfilled. The actual return was a 23.6% retrace to 66,052, nearly matching.
Corrections from this time:After a strong one-way move, expand the tail of the rebound sell zone to 23.6% retracement.66,052 23.6% retrace in the 2nd watch zone for③, 4H reversal = 1H rebound high 66,070, Net GEX +8.88 at 66,000 overlapping..
Option Market Structure × MTF Snapshot
TOTAL GEX
−14.1bn
Shrinking toward neutral
ZERO GAMMA
65,890
Matches night high
KEY POSITIVE GEX
66,000
Net GEX +8.88
PUT WALL
64,000
UNWINDING
4H
Range / Downward wave
Turn 66,070|Support 62,530|Return high 66,780 (X)
1H
Down / Upward wave
Turn 65,160|Support 65,980 (X)|Return high 66,070
15m
Up / Down wave
Turn 65,690|Support 65,160|Return high 65,760 (X)
Today's key monitoring levels
66,210
Upside breakout level
Clear break above and hold → to ①
65,960–66,160
66,070 + 66,000 + 23.6% retrace
③ The second watch zone / corresponding to S
65,690–65,890
15m turn + Zero Gamma
③ First watch zone
65,090–65,290
A-rank 65,160 + night low
② First watch zone
64,730–64,930
50% retrace + 9/21 low
② Second watch zone
64,680
Downside breakout level
Break below 50% retrace clearly → ④
Scenario switch map
66,210 break above and hold
① Pullback completed → Breakout long follow
64,730–66,160
Rebound selling / Downside rebound main battleground
64,680 clearly broken
④ Breakout follow short
Today's 4 scenarios
Current action
Upper side: 65,690–66,210
- Stalls at 65,690–65,890 → go to ③ First watch zone
- Re-stalls at 65,960–66,160 → go to ③ Second watch zone
- Break above 66,210 with 15m close and hold → go to ①
Lower side: 65,290–64,680
- Rebound at 65,090–65,290 → to ② First watch zone
- Rebound at 64,730–64,930 → to ② Second watch zone
- Clearly break below 64,680 → end ②, move to ④
Risk management
MFE protection follows a common rule: +200 for entry price to breakeven or small profit, +300 to secure at least +100 or trail. The current price is between two A-ranks, and the directional bias differs by time frame, so do not jump solely on zone reach; prioritize confirming 1–5 minute candle turns. For scenario ③, always take partial profit at T1 65,160. Since the area below will enter the 38.2–50% retracement band, extend cautiously while watching for rebounds.
NK225 DAILY TRADING PLAN2026-09-25
※This report is prepared based on MTF and Option analysis at the night close 06:01 on 9/25.
※Based on the previous validation, after a strong one-way move, the 23.6% retrace is reflected in the watch zones.
※This material is for information purposes and does not constitute trading advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.