Financial Instruments Business Operator Kanto Finance Bureau Director (Kinsho) No. 1960 / Membership Association Investment Trusts Association, Japan Membership No. 012-02323 Go to GogoJungle Home
icon List
anotherstage
09/24/2026 02:13
Release： 09/24/2026 02:13
Update： 09/24/2026 02:13
anotherstage
Investment style : Fundamental
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : More than 1 billion JPY
Born in Tokyo in 1957. After graduating from the Civil Engineering Department, School of Engineering, Waseda University, he worked for a major general contractor and joined Nomura Asset Management (formerly Nomura Trust & Banking) at the age of 31. After handling stocks, bonds, futures and options trading, he was seconded to Nomura Research Institute, where he excelled as a strategist. In the year he was seconded, he ranked as a strategist in the Nikkei Financial Newspaper (at that time) "Popular Economists Ranking." After returning to Nomura Asset Management, he worked as a fund manager, with his assigned funds being ranked No. 2 in Toyo Keizai’s annual performance list. In addition, as the person responsible for operations, he successfully established and listed Japan’s first listed investment trust (ETF), the "Nikkei 300 Leveraged ETF," and in 1996 became Nomura Asset’s first professional contract fund manager. Since then, for more than 20 years, he has gained experience in various investments including stocks, bonds, derivatives, venture investments, and real estate-related investments at Nomura Asset Management and other major asset management firms and banks. He also filed a business model patent in the mutual fund industry. Alongside investment operations, during his secondment to Nomura Research Institute, he has also worked as a critic and strategist. In addition to writing for economic magazines such as Weekly Diamond and Toyo Keizai, he has given numerous talks at management conferences and employee training sessions for listed companies, including the Economic Friendship Association (Keizai Doyukai) and the Japanese Securities Dealers Association. In addition, he has been involved in the launch of venture companies, funding guidance, management consulting, private placement debt refinancing guidance and execution, and other activities to start and cultivate venture businesses and support management. Representative, LLC Another Stage Regular commentator on Tokyo MX2 "WORLD MARKETZ" (Wednesdays) Instructor at Waseda University Extension Center Senior advisor for a certain real estate tech company ◆ Activities - Financial-related courses and seminars - Media appearances - Writing activities - Management consulting services, including broad financial matters - Fundraising: planning schemes and fundraising - Guidance on third-party allotment capital increases and selecting fundraising destinations - M&A support services - Real estate transaction support - Startup support 　　 ◆ Media appearances, etc. - NHK Special – "Tokyo Black Hole III 1989–1990: The Palace of Temptation and Sin of the Bubble" (NHK) - "Viking," "Good Day," "New News 2001" (Fuji TV) - "Hatori Shinichi Morning Show," "Good Morning" (TV Asahi) - "TIME LINE" (TOKYO FM), and more - Kyodo News / Nikkan Gendai - Shukan Bunshun / Shukan Post / Playboy / Friday / Monthly Entame - Gendai Business, etc. ◆ Publications - “An Approximately Forty-Single, On-the-Brink OL Studies Investing” (Shuwa System) - “The Inconvenient Truth of Abenomics” (United Books) - “1989 Nikkei Average 38,915” (Kawade Shobo Shinsha) - “202X Financial Asset Disappearance” (K.K. Best Seller)
Single article
$6.37
Reference price (JPY): ￥1,000 (taxed)
Article cover image

When the wind blows, the cooper shops profit ~ AI rally drives up government bond yields

“In the New York bond market on the 23rd, the long-term bond market fell sharply again. The 10-year government bond yield, whose 4.625% is the benchmark coupon, finished at 5.11% (prices down), up 0.15 percentage points from the previous day. The anticipation of additional rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) strengthened, leading to bond selling. It had briefly reached 5.13%, the highest since mid-July 2007. The concerns about supply and demand at the 5-year bond auction on the same day also weighed heavily.”
Long-term bonds in NY fall sharply, 10-year yield at 5.11% on inflation concerns in the U.S.; highest since 2007 - Nikkei

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level in 19 years since mid-July 2007. This marked the highest level since the world changed utterly after the Lehman Brothers collapse.

Following these movements in the U.S. Treasury market, in Tokyo on the 24th after the Silver Week,

“In the domestic bond market, the yield on the newly issued 10-year government bond, a benchmark for long-term interest rates, temporarily rose to 3.055% (bond prices fell), a 30-year high not seen since August 1996.”
“On the morning of the 24th, the Osaka Exchange activated a ‘Dynamic Circuit Breaker (immediate eligible price range system)’ temporarily halting trading in long-term government bond futures.”
Long-term yields rise to 3.055% briefly as U.S. bond selling spreads - Nikkei

This is the situation.

“On the 23rd,S&P Global announced that in September the U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index, flash) stood at 57.0 for manufacturing, higher than market expectations (53.5) compiled by Dow Jones Newswires, marking the highest in four years and four months. The services PMI was 58.7, well above expectations (55.7), the highest in four years and eleven months.”
Long-term bonds in NY fall sharply, 10-year yield at 5.11% on inflation concerns in the U.S.; highest since 2007 - Nikkei

It is said that the reason for the rapid rise in the U.S. 10-year yield was that PMI surpassed market expectations, inflation concerns widened, and the probability of Fed rate hikes increased.

“According to FedWatch, which predicts U.S. monetary policy from movements in U.S. short-term interest rate futures, the probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the October FOMC is 68% as of the evening of the 23rd, up from 55% the previous day.”
Long-term bonds in NY fall sharply, 10-year yield at 5.11% on inflation concerns in the U.S.; highest since 2007 - Nikkei

What is notable is what is mentioned at the end of the article as an aside
“The yield on the 2-year note, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, ended at 4.90%, up 0.14 percentage points from the previous day. It briefly rose to 4.94%, the highest since the end of May 2024.”
This is where it stands.

U.S. Treasury yields have risen above 5% for the 5-year and longer maturities, and the 2-year yield is approaching 5%, causing the yield curve to bear-flatten (short-term yields rise, flattening the yield curve).

画像
From Investing.com

That the U.S. Treasury yield curve is bear-flattening in the 5% range means you can earn about 5% without taking duration risk, credit risk, or liquidity risk.

This implies that even if expected returns on risky assets do not change, demand for risky assets will gradually decline.

The main players in global financial markets’ funds are institutional investors such as pension funds. This pension capital is estimated to be about USD 63 trillion across the OECD, of which DB (defined benefit) funds are about USD 20 trillion, and U.S. DB funds are over USD 12 trillion; thus the need for risky assets naturally declines (excluding GPIF).

The question is whether the rise in U.S. bond yields is due only to structural concerns like inflation risk and rate hike expectations that people talk about.

While the U.S. economy is strong, rising crude oil prices and fiscal concerns continue to exert upward pressure on interest rates. However, this year’s rapid rise in U.S. yields is likely influenced by a special factor, the “September Effect.”