US-China summit talks
| U.S. S&P Global PMI (September Flash) | Result | Market Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 57.0 | 53.6 | 53.9 |
| Non-Manufacturing PMI | 58.7 | 56.0 | 56.5 |
| Composite PMI | 58.4 | — | 56.0 |
| 375–400 | 400–425 | 425–450 | 450–475 | 475–500 | 500–525 | 525–550 | 550–575 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/10/28 | 30.3% | 69.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12/09 | 6.5% | 38.7% | 54.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2027/01/27 | 3.3% | 22.8% | 46.9% | 27.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03/17 | 0.8% | 8.2% | 28.8% | 41.9% | 20.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04/28 | 0.6% | 5.9% | 22.4% | 37.8% | 27.0% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 06/09 | 0.3% | 3.7% | 15.7% | 31.6% | 31.4% | 14.7% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 07/28 | 0.3% | 3.2% | 13.9% | 29.1% | 31.4% | 17.3% | 4.4% | 0.4% |
| 09/15 | 0.2% | 2.8% | 12.4% | 27.1% | 31.1% | 19.2% | 6.2% | 0.9% |
| 10/27 | 0.2% | 2.7% | 12.0% | 26.4% | 30.9% | 19.7% | 6.8% | 1.2% |
| 12/08 | 0.4% | 3.4% | 13.2% | 26.8% | 30.0% | 18.7% | 6.3% | 1.1% |
Yesterday's U.S. PMI showed very strong numbers, lifting expectations for further rate hikes in the U.S. markets have priced in about four rate increases through next summer. However, this week's market has been driven largely by expectations for U.S.-China talks and a rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran at the United Nations General Assembly, set against Japan's holidays.
WTI briefly rose to $106 before being pushed back by the channel line, and dipped to around $88 in just about a week. Equities moved in a counter-correlation, and despite high rates, the mood remained somewhat optimistic this week.
On the equity market side, several AI model announcements occurred this week. OpenAI unveiled GPT-6 Sol, Luna; Claude announced Opus5.5; Meta released Muse, and the AI-related market continued to drive stock markets on the back of pre-announcement expectations.