[September 24] Daily Launch FX｜Analysis of 7 stock/market symbols and buying/selling scenarios

Rontchi FX Daily: Market Analysis and Buy/Sell Scenarios for 7 Stocks【Sept 24 Issue】

【Sept 24】 The 66,000 yen range tried to consolidate but continued to fall; meanwhile, yen weakness accelerated to the 158 yen level

During the three-day weekend, the Nikkei 225 futures had risen, but on the first day of cash trading they could not sustain that upside. The close was lower. On the other hand, the USD/JPY pair extended toward the 158 yen level amid yen weakness and intervention warnings.

Good morning, this is Rontchi FX.
In the free section, we整理 the price movement after the long holiday and verify the answers; in the paid section, we summarize today's monitoring levels and conditions.

※ Price references: Nikkei 225 uses the Sept 24 official close; USD/JPY, GOLD, BTC use the Sept 24 early-morning quotes (Japan time); US stock indices use the Sept 23 (Wed) official close and Sept 24 before-hours futures. Since CFD/futures prices in trading accounts may differ, please cross-check the same product on its chart before placing orders.

Answers from the past few days

• Nikkei 225：
  Previous issue view＝[Buy] If 66,000 yen is recovered and held, target 66,900 yen. If it falls below 65,300 yen, switch view to 65,000 yen, then 64,500 yen and 64,000 yen.
  Result：In the first half, there was a rebound of 394 points, but in the afternoon it stalled, and the close was 65,528.09 yen (vs last Friday’s close -488.27 yen, -0.74%). It neither touched 66,000 nor 65,300 on a closing basis, so neither buy nor sell condition was activated. On daily and 4-hour charts, there was no entry. However, the price action from the high of the first session to the afternoon moved downward in a way that makes the 15-minute and 5-minute “pullback selling” scenario work more easily. Those who were able to ride the drop from the morning high to the afternoon likely recovered the price range.
• BTC：
  Previous issue view＝[Buy] If 86,000 dollars is recovered and held, target 87,000 dollars.
  Result：The buy scenario succeeded. Those who bought at 86,000 dollars should have captured about 1,000 dollars up to the target 87,000 dollars. After reaching that level, price moved into a range of 85,000–87,300 dollars, making further chasing harder to gain additional profits.
• USD/JPY：
  Previous issue view＝[Buy] If 157.50 yen is recovered and held, target 158.05 yen.
  Result：The buy scenario succeeded. Those who bought at 157.50 yen could capture 55 pips to the target 158.05 yen, plus the portion extended briefly to 158.40 yen, totaling around 90 pips. However, authorities’ yen-weakness correction intervention expectations remain strong, and upside is currently capped around 158.20–158.30 yen.
• GOLD：
  Previous issue view＝[Buy] If 4,330 dollars is recovered and held, target 4,378 dollars. [Sell] If below 4,270 dollars, target 4,240 dollars.
  Result：Trading in a range of 4,323–4,345 dollars; neither buying nor selling conditions were reached on a closing basis on daily or 4-hour charts, so no entry. However, on 15-minute and 5-minute charts, the “range upper bound pullback selling” and “lower bound pullback buying” were functioning as expected.
• NASDAQ100：
  Previous issue view＝[Buy] If 30,000 dollars is recovered and held, target 30,200.
  Result：The Buy scenario succeeded. Those who bought at 30,000 dollars moved beyond the target 30,200, with futures reaching 31,010 on Thursday morning.
• Euro/Dollar：
  Previous issue view＝[Sell] If 1.1420 is broken, target 1.1400.
  Result：The Sell scenario succeeded. Those who sold at 1.1420 should have moved past the target of 1.1400 and currently sit around 1.1386, capturing more than the target move.
• S&P 500：
  Previous issue view＝[Buy] If 7,800 is recovered and held, aim for the all-time high area.
  Result：The Buy scenario succeeded. After a brief intraday pullback on Wednesday, Thursday morning futures recovered to 7,835.50, fulfilling the 7,800 buy condition.

整理ing the first day’s price action after the holiday

The Nikkei Average did not confirm the upside built by futures in the cash market during the three-day weekend. The morning session rose to 394 points, but faded in the afternoon, closing down 488.27 points at 65,528.09. The number of gainers was 841 and losers 658; the market did not spread as strongly as the index would suggest.

In the FX market, yen weakness continues even after the Bank of Japan’s rate hike decision. USD/JPY rose to the 158 yen level, briefly hitting 158.40. However, expectations of official yen-weakness correction remain strong, capping the upside near 158.20–158.30.

In the U.S. stock market on Wednesday, the session was mixed. The Dow fell but narrowed its losses by the afternoon; the S&P 500 turned negative for the fourth day, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced for the fourth day in a row to new highs. Before Thursday’s opening, S&P 500 futures were at 7,835.50 (+3.75) and NASDAQ 100 futures at 31,010.00 (-18.50), indicating a mildly bullish sentiment.

GOLD continued to slide, trading around 4,323.67 dollars, with continued pressure from high U.S. long-term yields.

BTC remained firm around 85,800–86,000 dollars. Inflows into physical ETFs have expanded (weekly total about $171 million, around $100 million on Monday alone), sustaining the high-price range not seen in eight months.

Key points for the 7 stocks

• ① USD/JPY：In the 158 yen range, how far will it extend amid intervention fears? After briefly rising to 158.40, upside is capped around 158.20–158.30. Market expectations of official intervention—both verbal and actual—are weighing on this level.
• ② Nikkei 225：Unable to sustain futures upside and continued lower. From a morning high of 394 yen, it closed down 488 yen. It did not consolidate in the 66,000 yen range, and the number of rising stocks underperformed the falling. Today is the test as to whether it can rebound or continue to decline.
• ③ GOLD：Slide continues toward the 4,320s. Continued high U.S. long-term yields weigh on prices, keeping a lower bound search.
• ④ BTC：Range of 85,000–87,000 dollars with ETF inflows supporting. After reaching 87,000, a pullback occurred, but ETF inflows continue to support and maintain near-eight-month highs.
• ⑤ NASDAQ100：New all-time highs day after day; Thursday’s bias remains bullish. Nasdaq Composite continues to hit new highs for four consecutive days. Thursday futures suggest mild buying pressure.
• ⑥ Euro/Dollar：Contained movement amid dollar strength. No clear directional bias, staying around 1.14x.
• ⑦ S&P500：Pulled back for the first time in four days, but Thursday shows signs of buying. Wednesday’s session saw tech/financials as the main contributors to the negative day, whereas Thursday’s futures remain in positive territory.

※ The following short-term scenarios are monitoring for Sept 24.
【Shared understanding】
・“Breakout” and “Breakdown” judgments are based on the confirmed close of the specified time frame. A mere dart of the wick does not count.
・Prices are rounded. Proximate levels should be treated as a single band.
・Today we have the U.S.-China summit. Depending on the outcome, markets could move significantly, so reducing exposure and positioning more conservatively is recommended.