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カタナ
09/23/2026 17:17
Release： 09/23/2026 17:17
Update： 09/23/2026 17:18
カタナ
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s up to the present, I have remained involved in the financial markets, experiencing various aspects of equity, bond, foreign exchange, and derivative markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company, where I worked in market-making for domestic and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for client-facing activities, gaining practical experience with interest rate, currency, and credit risks. Later, at a foreign securities company, I engaged in marketing to hedge funds and the formation of new funds, contributing to investment strategies on the institutional investor side, product design, and risk management. After going independent, I have continued systematic trading in which discretionary judgment alone is not relied upon, with the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena. Currently, I combine Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility to pursue reproducible trading judgments. Drawing on many years of market experience and practical futures trading perspectives, I focus on market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market outlooks. Markets are always changing, but I believe the important thing is not to “guess the forecast” but to preemptively organize, in advance, “at which points and under what conditions will I act, and how.”
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NK225 Daily Trading Plan｜Today's monitoring levels and 4 scenarios【9/24】

NK225 PROFESSIONAL DAILY

NK225 Daily Trading Plan｜Today's Monitoring Levels and 4 Scenarios

Option Market Structure × MTF Dow Theory
TRADE DATE2026.09.24
REFERENCE65,940
VALIDITYIntraday to next night close
UPDATED2026.09.24 06:01 JST

Today’s conclusion — check in 30 seconds

4H isRange / downtrend swing, 1H isDowntrend / down-move, 15m alsoDowntrend / down-move, with the 3-hour chart aligned downward. The upturn confirmed yesterday on the 4H is momentarily paused. The basic stance is③ Sell on rallies prioritized, and if it stalls in 66,170–66,370 or 66,480–66,680, then it is ③. If it rebounds at the lower 65,540–65,740 or 65,200–65,400, then it’s a long on the lower rebound (②). If a clear close above 66,830 on 15m, maintain for ①; if clearly breaks 65,150, switch to ④.66,830, if clearly broken above on 15m close and held, then move to ①,65,150, if clearly broken, switch to ④.
Priority watch
③ Sell on rallies66,170〜66,370
When upper-condition is met
① Breakout buy66,830↑
Counter
② Lower rebound buy65,540〜65,740
When lower-condition is met
④ Break sell65,150↓

Option Market Structure × MTF Snapshot

OPTION DATA
N/A
No update / No adjustment this time
4H STATE
RANGE
Movement downward
1H STATE
DOWN
Downward swing
KEY RETRACE
65,379
38.2% retracement
4H
Range / downward swing
Turn: 67,140 | Support 62,530 | Rally high 66,780 (X)
1H
Decline / downward swing
Turn: 66,270 | Support 65,980 (X) | Rally high 67,140
15m
Decline / downward swing
Turn: 65,940 | Support 66,880 (X) | Rally high 66,580

Today’s important monitoring levels

66,830
Upper breakout criteria
If clearly breaks above on 15m close and holds, go to ①
66,480〜66,680
Mid rally high around 66,580
③ Second monitoring zone
66,170〜66,370
1H turning price 66,270
③ First monitoring zone / Main option
65,540〜65,740
Low-soon price area on 9/24 pre-dawn
② First monitoring zone
65,200〜65,400
38.2% retrace 65,379
② Second monitoring zone
65,150
Lower breakout criteria
If clearly breaks and holds, move to ④

Scenario switch map

66,830 break above and hold
① Break-following long
65,200〜66,680
Sell on rallies / main zone for lower rebound
65,150 clear break
④ Break-following short

Today’s 4 scenarios

① Break-following (Long)CONDITIONAL
Watch66,780〜66,830
ConditionClear breakout above 66,830 on 15m close and hold
EntryAfter pullback near breakout price, re-ignite on 1–5 minute candles
Exit / switchIf 66,670 is broken on 15m close, retest fails → exit. Full exit at 66,170. If breakout fails, reevaluate ③
Target67,140 → 67,600 → 67,910
Structure：Since 4H and 1H are turning downward right after, this is a breakout against higher-time frames. 67,140 is a high that previously resisted; upon reaching, take partial profits.
② Lower rebound longCOUNTER
WatchFirst monitoring zone 65,540〜65,740 / Second monitoring zone 65,200〜65,400
ConditionAfter zone reach, close above the recent high with a 1–5m close to indicate upside reversal
EntryLead on 1m, confirm on 5m with upside reversal then add
Exit / switchFirst zone breached over 65,490 for a first exit and re-evaluate at second zone. If second zone breaks 65,150, exit. If 65,150 clearly breaks, complete ② and move to ④. Full exit at 64,840
Target65,940 → 66,270 → 66,580
Structure：Contrarian in nature. However, the second zone includes the 38.2% retracement of 62,530→67,140, 65,379, which makes it a natural initial pullback in a new uptrend.
③ Return sell (Short)FOCUS
WatchFirst monitoring zone 66,170〜66,370 / Second monitoring zone 66,480〜66,680
ConditionAfter reaching zones, intraday pullback low is broken on close, indicating a downside reversal
EntryLead on 1m, confirm on 5m with downward reversal then add
Exit / switchFirst zone breached above 66,420 for a bounce exit. However, the overall ③ does not end; reevaluate at second zone. If 66,730 breaks, exit. If 66,830 clearly breaks and holds, switch to ①. If 65,150 breaks, switch to ④. Full exit at 66,930
Target65,750 → 65,640 → 65,380
Structure：Downward 4H and 1H turning down; a sell on rallies in the same direction as higher time frames. 65,380 is a 38.2% retracement and prone to rebound, so extend to ④ thereafter.
④ Break-following (Short)CONDITIONAL
Watch65,150
ConditionClear break below 65,150 on 15m and continue lower. A break that is only a whisker will not count
EntryAfter pullback near breakout price, re-ignite on 1–5 minute candles
Exit / switchIf 65,330 recovers on 15m close, exit. Full exit at 65,750. If breakout fails, reevaluate ②
Target64,870 → 64,590 → 64,290
Structure：Breaking below 65,150 is a move below the 38.2% retracement of 65,379. 64,870–64,835 coincides with the Sept 21 low and 50% retracement, so take partial profits at T1.

Action at the present moment

Upper side: 66,170〜66,830

  • Stalls at 66,170〜66,370 → First monitoring zone ③
  • Stalls again at 66,480〜66,680 → Second monitoring zone ③
  • Clear breakout above 66,830 on 15m close and hold → Move to ①

Lower side: 65,740〜65,150

  • Rebound at 65,540〜65,740 → First monitoring zone ②
  • Rebound at 65,200〜65,400 → Second monitoring zone ②
  • Clear break of 65,150 → End ②, move to ④

Risk Management

As a general rule for MFE protection,raise to breakeven or small profit at +200, and secure at least +100 or trail at +300. The 4H upturn pauses temporarily, and since the 3-hour chart is aligned downward, prioritize selling on rallies. On the other hand, the rally from 62,530 is still only about 30% and the 38.2–50% retracement range is a natural pullback in a new uptrend. Do not chase aggressively on the downside. This time there is no Option data provided, so price structure takes precedence.
NK225 DAILY TRADING PLAN2026-09-24

※This report is prepared based on MTF analysis as of night close 9/24 06:01.

※No Option data provided, so no rank adjustment based on Option alignment.

※This material is for information purposes only and not investment advice. Exercise your own judgment and responsibility.