【9/23 Wed】Dollar/Yen Morning Fixed-Point Observation｜Star at 16:15 Eurozone & Japan Manufacturing PMI - Flash Estimate★★
This is the morning record for Wednesday, September 23. Today's main focus is the 16:15 France & Germany Manufacturing PMI - flash. The USD/JPY current price is 157.45 yen, with an expected range of 156.61 to 158.27 yen.
The answer from the previous trading day was a pass. Below, I will present indicators, charts, and scenarios in order.
First 60 seconds | Today's Economic Indicators
Today's Economic Indicators (Sept 23, 8:30 JST to Sept 24, 8:29 JST)
| Time (JST) | Country | Indicator | Importance | Forecast | Prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:15 |  | France Manufacturing PMI - Flash | ★★ | 50.9 | 51.5 |
| 16:15 | | France Services PMI - Flash | ★★ | 48.3 | 48.4 |
| 16:30 | | Germany Manufacturing PMI - Flash | ★★ | 54.1 | 54.1 |
| 16:30 | | Germany Services PMI - Flash | ★★ | 49.9 | 48.5 |
| 17:00 | | Manufacturing PMI - Flash | ★ | 52.6 | 52.8 |
| 17:00 | | Services PMI - Flash | ★ | 51.4 | 51.7 |
| 17:30 |  | Manufacturing PMI - Flash | ★★ | 51.5 | 51.5 |
| 17:30 | | Services PMI - Flash | ★★ | 52.0 | 52.8 |
| 18:34 | | Germany 30-year Bond Auction | ★ | — | 3.90|2.4 |
| 22:45 |  | Manufacturing PMI - Flash | ★ | 53.6 | 53.2 |
| 22:45 | | Services PMI - Flash | ★ | 55.8 | 56.8 |
| 23:05 | | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ★ | — | — |
| 23:30 | | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | ★ | -0.6M | -0.6M |
What Moves Today
Today's main focus is the 16:15 flash France Manufacturing PMI, which is expected at 50.9 vs. 51.5 previously, implying a slight deceleration. Combined with the France Services PMI (expected 48.3, previous 48.4), a rise in euros could be anticipated if the data beat expectations, while a miss could push the euro lower. Since this influences USD/JPY via EURUSD indirectly, the reaction may feel a step slower. Today is the autumn equinox and Tokyo is closed, so morning moves are likely to be thinner.
Dollar-Yen: Current Position
Current Value157.45 (Previous close 157.37 / +0.04 from yesterday)
Expected Range156.61 (daily MA20) to 158.27 (Pivot R2)
BiasRange-bound between 156.61 and 158.27. Direction awaits European indicators after 16:15
AlternativeBlow above 158.27 could test 159.73; drop below 156.61 could reach 155.13
Daily Chart: Market Environment
The daily chart shows a range with three moving averages intertwined, giving no clear directional bias. The current price of 157.45 sits above the daily MA20 at 156.61. Resistance is at 157.74, then 160.21. Support is at 155.13, with 20-day high 160.39 (9/2) and low 152.89 (9/8). The 152.89 to 158.05 rise has a 0.382 at 156.08, slightly below the lower bound of the expected range. The daily ATR14 is 157 pips.
4-Hour Chart: Key Lines
The four-hour chart also shows overlapping MAs with no clear ordering. Resistance at 158.00, then 159.56; support at 155.26 and 154.75. The uptrend line starting 9/11 22:00 sits at 156.85, and the downtrend line starting 9/2 10:00 sits at 157.61; the current price is between these two lines. 5-day high 158.05, low 154.84.
Linking Indicators and Charts
Today the highlight is the 16:15 European and French PMI flash. From 17:30 onward, PMI flash readings for Europe and the UK will continue. Until then, I regard 156.61–158.27 as the primary range. The upper limit is Pivot R2, the lower limit is supported by the daily MA20. The pivot points to watch intraday are P at 157.32, R1 at 157.82, and S1 at 156.87.
In the Video | Dollar-Yen Morning Routine
Answer from the Previous Trading Day
○ Yesterday's close 157.37 was within the expected range of 156.19–158.39, so the main range held. However, given the wider range, the outcome was modest.^^
Yesterday's USD/JPY closed at 157.40, up 0.07 from the prior day, with a 96-pip daily range. We did not capture Lagarde's ECB President remarks as a value, but the day preserved a modest range compared to the daily average.
Validation Data
On Tokyo time Wednesday (9–15), the average USD/JPY range over past 155 sessions is 59 pips; the daily average range is 134 pips. Today Tokyo is closed, so the morning may be even quieter than 59 pips.^^
The next-day up-day probability after three consecutive bullish days (over the past 10 years, 372 cases) is 50%, with an average move of -1 pips. It’s roughly split, so it’s not easy to infer direction, but the context of a range-bound outlook is not unfavorable.
Today's Question
Which will be tested first, the upper 158.27 or the lower 156.61?^^
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For those who want to run the same validation in your own environment, I’ve included a version where the rules are programmed.RCI Method MT4 Version / MT5 Version
Materials published by FX Method Research Institute on GogoJungle
※ Validation uses USD/JPY hourly data from January 2016 to March 2026. It does not guarantee future performance.
Indicator data: Custom edited based on Forex Factory / Tradays; Price: Dukascopy (Bid) as of 2026-09-23 09:00
※ This is Tsumo’s personal view. Please make investment decisions on your own.