NK225 Daily Trading Plan|Today’s Monitoring Levels and 4 Scenarios [9/23]
NK225 PROFESSIONAL DAILY
NK225 Daily Trading Plan|Today's monitoring levels and 4 scenarios
Option Market Structure × MTF Dow Theory
Today's conclusion — Check in 30 seconds
On the 4H,it has shifted to an uptrend and rising impulse, closing above the retracement high of 66,780. The 1H is also in an upward impulse with the higher timeframe direction clearly up. The default isbuying the dips first. If it rebounds at 66,600–66,800 or 66,300–66,500, then it is case ②. If it breaks higher to 66,980–67,180, and then stalls at 67,270–67,470, it would be case ③, but this is a contrarian move right after the 4H uptrend turn, so only a dip capture.67,130needs to clearly close above on a 15m close and hold to be case ①,66,240breaking clearly switches to case ④.
Priority monitoring
② Buy the dip66,600〜66,800When upside conditions are met
① Breakout buy67,130↑Counter
③ Sell the retracement66,980〜67,180When downside conditions are met
④ Break sell66,240↓Option Market Structure × MTF Snapshot
OPTION DATA
9/18
Closed for holiday / treated as reference
KEY SUPPORT
66,600–66,800
A-rank + old 4H high
4H BREAKOUT
66,780
Already broken higher / support candidate
NEXT TRIGGER
67,130
Upward breakout criterion
Daily
Range / rising impulse
Turn 62,530 | support 62,350 (X) | retrace high 73,760
4H
Uptrend / rising impulse
Turn 65,980 | support 62,530 | retrace high 66,780 (X)
1H
Range / rising impulse
Turn 66,600 | support 65,980 | retrace high 64,740 (X)
15m
Upward / downward impulse
Turn 67,080 | support 66,600 | retrace high 66,980 (X)
Today's Important Monitoring Levels
67,130
Upside breakout criterion
If clearly above and held on 15m close, then ①
67,270〜67,470
Upside second retracement zone
③ Second monitoring zone
66,980〜67,180
Recent high around 67,080
③ First monitoring zone
66,600〜66,800
A-rank + old 4H retrace high 66,780
② First monitoring zone / most important support
66,300〜66,500
Trading range on 9/22
② Second monitoring zone
66,240
Downward breakout criterion
If clearly breaks below and maintains, then move to ④
Scenario Switching Map
67,130 Clear breakout and hold
① Breakout follow-up long
66,300〜67,470
Buy the dip / Sell the retracement main battleground
66,240 Clear break
④ Breakout-following short
Today's 4 Scenarios
Current actions
Upper side: 66,980〜67,130
- If stalling at 66,980–67,180 → ③ First monitoring zone
- If clear breakout above 67,130 on 15m close → ①
- After ① is formed, monitor 67,270 → 67,600
Lower side: 66,800〜66,240
- If rebound at 66,600–66,800 → ② First monitoring zone
- If rebound at 66,300–66,500 → ② Second monitoring zone
- If 66,240 clearly breaks → ② ends, move to ④
Risk Management
MFE protection follows the common rule,+200 yen to cost or small profit, +300 yen to secure at least +100 yen or trailing. The 4H has just turned to an uptrend, so the higher timeframe direction is clearly up. For the short side, treat as a retracement capture and avoid over- chasing. On 9/23, liquidity tends to thin due to the holiday trading; therefore, place greater emphasis on confirming reversals on 1–5m than usual. Option data is not updated due to the holiday, so price structure takes precedence this time.
NK225 DAILY TRADING PLAN2026-09-23
※This report is based on MTF analysis as of the night close at 06:49 on 9/23.
※Option data is not updated due to the holiday and is treated as reference since prices have moved more than 2,000 since the latest 9/18.
※9/23 is the Autumnal Equinox holiday; the cash market is closed. Futures are on holiday trading, so beware of lower liquidity and price gaps.
※This material is for information provision and not for trading advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.