【Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260920】
[Dream Path FX Major Currencies Market Environment Awareness & Memo 20260920]
September 20, Sunday.
Hello.
South Kanto is having rain on and off as if a typhoon might come.
If we encounter heavy rain since morning, it seems like a short break.
I would like to pay attention to future disasters.
Now, after a flashy week ends
FOMC and Bank of Japan press conferences,
they seem to have started moving substantially.
While confirming the future direction firmly
will the Tokyo market move during the three-day holiday from Monday?
I would like to watch without too much expectation.
Now, let's confirm.
This is the count at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly 21st bar / 13
Weekly cycle 3rd cycle 13th bar / 9
Weekly volatility 142 pips
HPC 1st cycle 63rd bar / 43
4HC 5th cycle 76th bar / 32 or
4HC 6th or 1st 3rd
I interpret it as such.
If the Middle East war resumes, crude oil will rise
and that would raise the value of the US dollar.
That means a bearish outlook is likely.
Technically, downward movement also looks strong.
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20260920 FX Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/VCfo2BP02M4
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly 25th
Weekly cycle 4th cycle 2nd bar / 2 or
Weekly cycle 4th 20th bar / 12 LT
Weekly volatility 468 pips
Daily chart 1st cycle 9th bar / 9 or
HPC 2nd cycle 35th bar / 23 LT
4HC 1st or 3rd cycle 52nd bar / 49
I interpret it as such.
Personally, I find the chart confusing.
If the weekly is 20th bar, bearish
If the weekly is the 2nd bar, bullish
This is how I view it.
The daily is still young, so could be upward for now?
Maybe HPC, so
I really find it hard to read technically.
I feel that positions cannot be held unless it's a truly short-term trade.
.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly 21st / 13
Weekly cycle 3rd cycle 13th / 9
Weekly volatility 193 pips
HPC 1st cycle 63rd / 43
4HC 5th cycle 76th / 30 or
4HC 6th or 1st 3rd
I interpret it as such.
It’s a currency pair that finally seems to have larger weekly volatility.
If the 4HC switch happens in the future
it may be necessary to consider an upside as well.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly 26th / 21
Weekly cycle 4th cycle 20th / 13 LT
Weekly volatility 369 pips
Daily chart 3rd or HPC 2nd cycle 35th / 15 LT
4HC 3rd cycle 30th / 27
I interpret it as such.
Usually cannot determine whether MC or HPC, but
with the switch of 4HC
if EUR/USD rises
it is likely to rise together.
If USD/JPY remains flat
the impact on EUR/USD will be strong.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly 26th / 24
Weekly cycle 4th cycle 21st / 12
Weekly volatility 385 pips
Daily chart 3rd cycle 35th / 17
4HC 3rd cycle 53rd / 49
I interpret it as such.
When looking at the daily chart closing timing,
the next 4HC downside Dow wait seems likely.
However, will truly yen strength come?
Unless there is intervention again
it may be difficult.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly 18th / 15
Weekly cycle 3rd cycle 7th / 4
Weekly volatility 295 pips
Daily chart 1st cycle 35th / 20
4HC 3rd cycle 30th / 27
I interpret it as such.
From a daily perspective, it looks range-bound.
However, given how much the U.S. stock market has risen,
could it be said that it has risen well?
When U.S. stocks fall, AUD/USD falls.
Isn’t the impact approaching?
I think so.
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20260920 FX Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/VCfo2BP02M4
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DXY 100.212 -0.03%
US10Y 5.000 +1.24%
DJI 51688 points -95
US500 +0.34%
WTI 99.958 dollars
BRN 103.87 dollars
Nikkei 225 65018 yen +882
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