[September 21 Analysis Report] Will EUR/USD continue to fall? Can the weekly pullback in the cross yen work?
Will weekly chart pullbacks work for the cross yen?
Hello, this is Leo.
This time,Summary of Market Analysis as of September 21, 2026will be compiled.
What I am paying particular attention to in the current market are
continued decline
weekly pullback rebound
these two.
Until last week, cross yen had fallen quite sharply, but now we are starting to see responses from weekly pullback candidates.
On the other hand, USD/JPY has clearly pierced above 155, and afterward there were times when it rose to around 157–158.
From here, I want to watch whether
＋
USD strength declines
will continue.
I want to see EUR/USD continue to fall as is
First, EUR/USD.
Currently,
4-hour: down
1-hour: down
is how I see it.
Therefore, rather than chasing a bottom, I would prioritize
to be taken.
In particular, if after a pullback on the 1-hour chart the price makes a lower high and then updates the low again, it will be much clearer to aim for a decline.
Whether the 1-hour chart forms a bottom is crucial
However, given the magnitude of the drop, you cannot simply look for shorts all the time.
When EUR/USD approaches an important support,
will the 1-hour bottom form?
I want to watch this closely.
↓
② The price makes higher lows
↓
③ The price moves above the pullback high
If the 1-hour chart turns upward like this, I would close short positions for the short term.
Conversely, if the price does not turn around near support and continues to make new lows,
to consider.
But stop if the 1-hour chart turns
Cross yen may be starting to react to weekly pullbacks
Next is the cross yen.
Until last week, cross yen had shown strong declines.
However, looking at the longer term, the cross yen has risen quite a bit on a weekly basis.
Thus, even if the daily chart shows a breakdown, on the weekly chart
On a weekly view, some currency pairs show long lower wicks or bullish candles, suggesting weekly buying may be starting to come in.
I am considering that possibility.
How this week's weekly close ends is also important
If this week's weekly candle closes strongly bullish,
even more strongly.
Conversely, if this week's weekly candle turns bearish again and the 1-hour chart resumes selling,
as well.
USD/JPY broke above 155 and bullish momentum strengthened
And,
this is quite important for USD/JPY.
Until now, I have regarded
whether it breaks above 155
as highly significant.
↓
accelerated rise
This scenario has been functioning at present.
From here I want to see USD/JPY maintain its upside advantage
Regarding USD/JPY now, I am leaning strongly
I want to see whether pullbacks form or not.
In particular, when it rises toward the 157–158 level, expectations for intervention rise, so
be cautious about chasing highs
If USD/JPY rises, it aligns with EUR/USD falling
This is very important.
Right now,
EUR/USD: Down
This can be explained by dollar buying for both pairs.
USD/JPY rises when the dollar is bought.
EUR/USD falls when the dollar is bought.
So, as long as the USD/JPY uptrend remains, the short EUR/USD scenario tends to align.
and determine USD cross moves
Cross yen may temporarily look to buy
For cross yen, I would like to consider a bullish direction for now.
However, the directional clarity is not as strong as for USD/JPY.
Weekly pullback may be starting to work, but how far it will retrace is still hard to read.
and。
I think that would be sufficient.
If the 1-hour chart shifts down again, I will consider that the pullback from the weekly pullback may have ended.
This week watch for FRB comments and PMI
This week there are no policy events as major as last week's FOMC or Bank of Japan announcement.
However, there are several factors likely to influence the dollar’s direction.
・U.S. PMI quick estimates
・European PMI quick estimates
・U.S. initial jobless claims
・U.S. new home sales
・U.S. durable goods orders
In particular, since the rate hike last week,
is a factor that tends to greatly affect the dollar market.
If U.S. economy proves strong, dollar buying could intensify further.
Conversely, if weak data persist, there could be a temporary unwinding of dollar buying.
Also pay attention to news headlines
This week, news such as U.S.-China relations could move stocks and interest rates.
In FX, direct economic indicators are not the only driver, but
when stocks or U.S. rates move strongly, dollar/yen can be affected as well.
but also risk-on/risk-off driven by news
My view for this week
Mainly bearish. As long as daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour declines continue, prioritize selling on rallies. However, if the 1-hour bottom forms and turns up, I will temporarily close shorts.
After breaking 155, the upside is favorable. For now I want to consider buying on pullbacks, but be cautious about chasing highs around 157–158.
Weekly pullback may be starting to work. For now, a bullish direction is considered. However, only while the 1-hour uptrend continues.
If I simplify the current market,
USD/JPY down
Cross yen up temporarily
is my view.
In particular, USD/JPY has clearly broken above the previously watched 155 and rose to around 157–158.
If USD/JPY continues higher, dollar demand may strengthen further, making EUR/USD decline more likely.
On the other hand, for cross yen, buying may be starting from the weekly pullback.
However, it is not yet necessary to conclude that a long-term uptrend has fully resumed.
② Observe 1-hour turning point
③ Observe USD/JPY trend
This week I plan to focus on these three aspects to monitor the market.
“Leo FX college”
You can receive information freely for daily learning, including questions or consultations about trading, learning materials, and the latest notices.