GS's AI confidence signal for 15M Weekly Report ~ 2026.9.18
GS AI Confidence Signal for 15M
This Week Summary
This Week's Signal Status
| Date/Time | Direction | Confidence | Expected Value Width | Entry | Exit | Result | Judgment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/14 11:15 | Buy | 68% | 5.4 | 1.15362 | 1.15405 | +4.3 | ○ |
| 09/14 17:00 | Buy | 69% | 6.3 | 1.15253 | 1.15482 | +22.9 | ○ |
| 09/16 22:15 | Sell | 59% | 5.3 | 1.14713 | 1.14628 | +8.5 | ○ |
| 09/16 22:30 | Sell | 61% | 6.0 | 1.14658 | 1.14623 | +3.5 | ○ |
| 09/16 22:45 | Sell | 63% | 7.2 | 1.14715 | 1.14623 | +9.2 | ○ |
| 09/16 23:15 | Buy | 63% | 6.8 | 1.14672 | 1.14646 | -2.6 | × |
| 09/16 23:30 | Buy | 65% | 7.8 | 1.14640 | 1.14675 | +3.5 | ○ |
| 09/16 23:45 | Buy | 62% | 6.2 | 1.14643 | 1.14684 | +4.1 | ○ |
| 09/17 00:00 | Buy | 65% | 7.2 | 1.14653 | 1.14663 | +1.0 | ○ |
| 09/17 00:15 | Buy | 65% | 7.2 | 1.14628 | 1.14680 | +5.2 | ○ |
| 09/17 00:30 | Buy | 61% | 5.2 | 1.14623 | 1.14677 | +5.4 | ○ |
Entries are the opening price of the next bar after the signal; exits are the opening price 8 bars later (2 hours later). TP/SL are not used.
This Week's MarketWeekly View
This week's EURUSD closed with weekly high-low of 143 pips and -110 pips from the start-of-week price. The ATR14 (movement per 15-minute bar) averages 4.3 pips.
Signals totaled 11 (buy 8 / sell 3), with 10 wins and total +65.0 pips. After deducting round-trip 1.0 pips, it is +54.0 pips.
Confidence is in the 59–69% range, and expected value width is 5.2–7.8 pips.
If you apply the "Recommended Narrowing" (Confidence ≥ 70% and EV width ≥ 8.0) to this week, the remaining signals would be 0.
Recent Trends6 Weeks
Bars represent weekly total pips (pre-spread). The vertical line is 0.
| Week | Bars | Wins-Losses | Win Rate | Total pips | Per Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 33 (08/10–)* | 1 | 1-0 | 100.0% | +8.3 | +8.3 |
| Week 34 (08/17–) | 2 | 2-0 | 100.0% | +5.7 | +2.8 |
| Week 35 (08/24–) | 1 | 1-0 | 100.0% | +2.6 | +2.6 |
| Week 36 (08/31–) | 0 | — | — | +0.0 | — |
| Week 37 (09/07–) | 0 | — | — | +0.0 | — |
| Week 38 (09/14–) | 11 | 10-1 | 90.9% | +65.0 | +5.9 |
| Totals | 15 | 14-1 | 93.3% | +81.6 | +5.4 |
Improve Win Rate with NarrowingSettings Comparison
With default settings, arrows indicate those that meet both probability ≥ 0.50 and EV width ≥ 5.0 pips all . Tightening reduces the number of bars but increases win rate and pips per bar. The indicators come with built-in inputs for this purpose.
The comparisons below use periods not used for training by the model. If compared over the training period, numbers look overly favorable and do not reflect real-world performance. Hence, comparisons are intentionally shown for out-of-sample periods.
The bars show win rate. The left edge is 50% (break-even).
| Setting | Bars | Remaining | Win Rate | Per Bar | Round-trip 1.0 pips deduction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial settings (no narrowing) | 14,191 | 100 % | 53.8% | +0.26 | -0.74 |
| Confidence ≥ 65% | 4,595 | 32 % | 58.0% | +0.95 | -0.05 |
| Confidence ≥ 70% | 1,350 | 10 % | 61.4% | +1.80 | +0.80 |
| EV width ≥ 8.0 pips | 5,047 | 36 % | 55.5% | +1.01 | +0.01 |
| Confidence ≥ 70% + EV width ≥ 8.0 Example | 930 | 7 % | 58.2% | +1.64 | +0.64 |
Note: The weekly bar count can vary significantly with market volatility. In recent months, EURUSD 15-minute ranges have been narrow, so even the initial setting yields 0–several bars per week. Therefore, the bar count is shown as a proportion relative to the initial setting being 100%.