※Free Public Version※【Week 3 Validation】The Unexpected Trap of Time Restrictions! Real Results of the "Phase 2" and New Realizations
My fully deployed EA「Loop-Turnaround_EA」 used in the forward test of『BIGBANG』 with 24-hour unlimited forward testing.
This week, to prevent unnecessary drawdown, we limited operation to “Tokyo time (9:00〜11:00)” only, implementing the Phase 2 time restriction.
However, the market reality was not so forgiving. We publish the real performance without any bias.
■ Week 3 forward test results (9/7~9/12) Forward test results
- Net profit and loss(ClosedP/L):-392,419 yen
- Total trades:2 trades (2 losses)
■ Breakdown of losses and the emergence of the “two truths”2 truths
This week's negative results contain extremely important data obtained during the validation process.
①24-hour operation limit (outcome of carried positions)
Most of this week's loss (-351,582 yen) was realized from an unrealized loss position carried over from last weekend due to full 24-hour operation. It confirms that letting a wild horse run without limit requires accepting deep drawdowns when it reverses.
② The “time window restriction” often traps us
Remaining1 trade was a buy entry at 9:00 within the restriction period, and was forcibly closed at exactly 11:00-40,837 yen.
This leads to a very important realization.
In a trend-following system, if you are forced to exit just because the time has come, you cut off the time you could have endured to push profits higher after entry.
■ The truth of system trading and future development
If account funds are ample and you can withstand temporary large drawdowns, it is actually faster for final asset growth to keep the 24-hour full operation running, because you do not miss any major trends.
However, for many people, both mentally and financially, it is tough in reality.
Therefore,as the optimal solution derived from this validation, “entries should be restricted to avoid the deadly time window, but settlements should not be bound by time; rely on the BIGBANG logic (reverse signals) to pull profits to the limit” would this allow us to ride this wild horse perfectly?That is the idea.
Currently, we are asking programmers to assess whether this new feature can be implemented in “Loop-Turnaround_EA.”
Next week, we will collect the final demo operation data with the current settings and deliver a one-month summary along with “the final conclusion of this validation (or a new development brought by the new feature)”.
Before you suddenly pour real money and end up with painful lessons,EA lets you expose the true power and quirks of the tool, which is the greatest merit of automated trading.
Please look forward to next week's report!