[9 o'clock Intraday Trading｜The FX Answer Reached Through 10 Years of Verification] Abandoned the method many times

Good morning. I am An-chan.

Autumn has really begun to show its presence, hasn't it? While I say autumn is the season of appetite, I spend my days jogging and doing planks to train my body.

I eat every day with a "steam basket," keeping my body completely free of oil. Chicken tenderloin is delicious these days.

I love that no matter what you steam in a steam basket, it becomes a "feast." Now, please enjoy it.

“This might be winnable.”

Throughout ten years of testing, I often thought that.

Find a new way of thinking.

Try it against past charts.

It actually works.

“I finally found it.”

I have thought that more than once or twice.

However, as I expanded the testing period, different results appeared.

In one market it worked, in another it did not at all.

The win rate was high, but a single big loss could erase the profits.

If you add more conditions, losses decrease, but then you can hardly enter any trades.

So I kept making the same decisions many times.

Discard.

Even a method built with a lot of time can be discarded if the results are different.

I have repeated this for ten years.

“Winning” and “being usable” were different things

In the beginning, if there was actual profit, I thought, “This method is usable.”

I won seven times out of ten.

It became profitable for several months.

Even that gives confidence.

But when I widened the testing period further, the situation could change.

In the market, there are times when prices keep rising, and times when the direction becomes unclear.

There are periods of high price movement and periods of low movement.

A method that was very strong in one period can easily collapse in a different period.

What I learned then was,

“Winning in the past and continuing to make the same judgments in the future are two different things”

that was the point.

Discarding was not easy

There are methods I tested for days.

I spent weeks thinking about the conditions.

It actually became profitable,

“This time I found the answer.”

There were times I thought so.

So when the results turned bad, humans cannot easily discard them.

“If I add a few more conditions, it might be usable.”

“If I just exclude this loss, it will be fine.”

I thought the same.

And I added more conditions.

Then the past losses disappeared.

But when testing another period, a different problem emerged.

To fix it, I added even more conditions.

Before I knew it,

I wasn’t sure whether I was improving the method or just forcing it to fit past charts.

So I changed my thinking.

What I spent time on does not justify keeping it

How much time I spent.

How much I like it.

How likely it looks that it will win.

That has nothing to do with the market.

If the testing results are different, you have to accept that fact.

Therefore,

“Because I spent this much time, I should keep it”

was no reason to keep the method.

If it’s unusable, discard it.

And test the next hypothesis.

Of course, discarding does not mean that the time spent was all wasted.

“This way of thinking didn’t work in this market.”

That too is a result.

When I think of a similar idea again,

I can start from a state that already has one answer.

The discarded method remains in the test results as well.

Discarding repeatedly made things simpler

When you say you tested for ten years,

you might think it became a hugely complex method.

In reality, it was the opposite.

At first I looked at many things.

There were times I added more conditions.

There were times I changed the combinations.

But as I continued testing,

“It wouldn’t change the result even without this.”

“This only works in a specific market.”

“This just makes the judgment more complex.”

Things like that appeared.

One by one, I discarded them.

So what remained in the end was not a growing set of conditions.

It was something that remained after discarding many times.

Discarding was also a form of testing

In the past, I thought discarding a method was a failure.

If I investigated for weeks and it wasn’t usable, it felt like wasted time.

But now it’s different.

I could confirm that something could not be used.

That is also a result of testing.

The most dangerous thing, I think, is

holding on to a method that once worked and then ignoring unfavorable results

I have thought many times,

“This is the answer.”

And many times,

“No, it was different.”

and I have discarded it.

In that repetition, a little more unnecessary stuff disappeared.

So when I look back now,

the number of discarded methods is part of the ten-year testing

I think.

Finding something new is not the only form of progress.

Letting go of what is different is also progress.

And, the things that remained no matter how many times I discarded them.

I have come to seekreproducibility.

That is all

Well then, everyone, take care