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Daily Lancet FX | Market Analysis and Buy/Sell Scenarios for 7 Stocks Each Day [September 18 Issue]

[September 18] At noon today, will the Bank of Japan move to raise interest rates to the highest level in 31 years?

After buying up to the 156 yen range immediately after the FOMC, the dollar/yen gradually retraced, and around the change of date it has fallen to the mid-155 yen range. The question of how long the “hawkish FOMC” momentum will continue is already being tested.

Good morning, this is Longchi FX.
To be honest, I am a single woman with no particularly notable romantic stories, and I find myself living a life consumed by charts. I sometimes think trading is like a boyfriend to me, but today is a day when that trade will be tested.

Today is the second day of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting, and the results are expected to be announced around noon. The free section organizes the price movements up to the previous day and the previous answers, while the paid section summarizes the monitoring levels and conditions ahead of the meeting results.

※ Price references: For stock indexes, the closing values are the confirmed values as of September 17, 2026 (Thursday); for exchange rates, the NY close on the same day and the bank rate at 00:05 on the 18th (Japan time) are used. For GOLD and BTC, since the exact acquisition time in Japan time could not be confirmed from primary information, the confirmed value of the previous business day (September 16) is used as a basis, and the current value is treated as unconfirmed. The confirmed values for NASDAQ100, S&P500, and EURUSD for September 17 have not been confirmed at the time of writing this article and are treated as unconfirmed. The results of the BOJ meeting have not been announced at the time of writing this article. Since CFD/futures in trading accounts may differ in price, please cross-check on the same chart before placing orders.

Answers from the previous issue (9/17)

We will verify the conditions set in the previous issue (September 17 morning edition) against the confirmed values available. Items that cannot be confirmed will be left as pending judgments.

• Dollar/Yen:
  Previous view = Buy: If it recovers and holds 156.50 on the 1-hour chart, target 157.00. Sell: If 156.50 loses momentum, target 155.60, then 154.91.
  Result:On September 17, at 8:00 Tokyo time, it stood at 156.27 and the NY close was 156.26, not reaching 156.50. It then gradually fell, and by 00:05 on the 18th it dropped to 155.29–155.79. The buy condition at 156.50 was not met, while the sell condition (156.50 momentum loss) was met, nearly reaching the 155.60 target.
• Nikkei 225:
  Previous view = Buy: If it recovers and holds 64,010 on the 1-hour chart, target 64,101. Sell: If 63,672 loses momentum, target 63,209.
  Result:On September 17, it opened at 64,643.58 and rose to a significant gap high. The start already exceeded the requested levels for both conditions, and the movement differed from the assumed “recovery and hold on the 1-hour chart.” It later slipped to 63,824.56, but closed at 64,136.25, above 64,010. The buy target of 64,101 was not reached by a narrow margin, but the direction was more in line with a buying bias.
• GOLD:Previous view = Buy: Recovery to 4,350 dollars with a target of 4,397 dollars. ➔Result:No definitive information could be confirmed, so judgment is pending.
• BTC:Previous view = We postponed presenting specific conditions. ➔Result:Not applicable.
• NASDAQ100:Previous view = Buy: Recover to 29,150 to target 29,368. ➔Result:The confirmed value for September 17 has not been confirmed, judgment pending.
• EURUSD:Previous view = Buy: Recover to 1.1557 to target 1.1600. Sell: Lose momentum at 1.1500 to target 1.1450. ➔Result:The confirmed value for September 17 has not been confirmed, judgment pending.
• S&P500:Previous view = Buy: Recover to 7,592 to target 7,620. ➔Result:The confirmed value for September 17 has not been confirmed, judgment pending.

This time only two items clearly showed a directional confirmation: the dollar/yen (selling conditions favored) and the Nikkei 225 (buy conditions biased, but the premise was disrupted by the gap opening). GOLD, NASDAQ100, EURUSD, and S&P500 remain under judgment due to insufficient confirmation.

Organizing Thursday’s (9/17) Price Movements

The Nikkei rose by 213.25 points to 64,136.25. Triggered by the Fed’s decision to raise rates for the first time in three years, the yen briefly weakened to around 1 USD = 156, prompting a retreat from the rapid yen-strengthening, and prompting a rethink buy in exporters like autos. With expectations of higher interest rates, banks and insurers also bought, broadening the rally to shipping, pharmaceuticals, steel, and other lagging sectors.

On the other hand, against the backdrop of global rate hikes, profit-taking selling emerged in AI- and semiconductor-related stocks, and the Nikkei average moved up by about 700 points immediately after the open but faced heavy resistance thereafter. With the BOJ results due today, investor caution heightened, and there were moments toward the close where prices briefly dipped into negative territory.

The dollar/yen has been retracing gradually from the 156 range after the FOMC, and as of 00:05 on the 18th, it had fallen to the mid-155 range, suggesting the upward momentum from the hawkish FOMC may be cooling.