Episode 21: Victory and defeat were in the crowd
In Guardian's research,
we looked at each position one by one.
Why did this position lose?
Why did this position survive?
Was it not possible to tell in the middle?
But,
the more we investigated,
even looking at just one position alone,
we couldn't easily find the answer.
So,
we changed our perspective a little.
The position with the most wins and the position with the most losses
First, we looked at,
among ACE's past trades,
the ones with particularly large profits.
And,
the ones with particularly large losses.
In other words,
the TOP and the WORST.
If we go through them one by one,
there might be some commonalities.
At first,
that was a simple idea.
Line them up
Place the positions with large profits in chronological order.
Also line up the positions with large losses in the same way.
Then,
we noticed something a little strange.
Winning positions are not scattered arbitrarily.
Losing positions are not scattered either.
They cluster around the same period.
There are times when profits accumulate
If you look at a certain period,
ACE positions turn into profits one after another.
It's not just one.
Positions entered around the same time tend to rise together.
Among them,
some significantly widen profits,
some leave small profits behind.
But,
overall,
ACE is riding the market well in that time window.
There was such a state.
Conversely, losses also cluster
On the flip side,
when you line up the positions with the biggest losses,
there is also a pattern.
After one failure,
a little time passes,
then you enter in the same direction again.
And,
you suffer again.
Furthermore,
the next as well.
If you look at just one,
you might think,
“This position was bad.”
But,
when you look at them in order, it was different.
Not one failure,
repeated similar failures.