【September 17】 Nikkei average extends gains, recovers to the 64,000 level, but heightening at the top is clear with a tendency toward “opening day selling”

On September 17, the Nikkei stock average closed up by213.25 points to 64,136.25.

The rise was 0.33%.

The opening price was 64,643.58.

The high was also 64,643.58.

The low was 63,824.56.

In short, today,

the opening price became the intraday high.

In the morning it started over 700 points higher than the previous day, but afterward the gains quickly narrowed.

Ultimately it ended at 64,136.

Compared with the previous day, it was positive, but

“Considered as starting strong but unable to sustain the momentum to the end.”

This is the frank assessment of today.

However, when looking at the market as a whole, it is not simply a weak day.

In the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market,

advancers: 1,285 issues

decliners: 233 issues

unchanged: 30 issues

and more than 80% of the issues advanced.

TOPIX also rose 0.80%.

In other words,

the overall Japanese stock market was stronger than it appeared from the Nikkei average.

That is the biggest takeaway today.

First, verify yesterday’s forecast

In yesterday’s article,

63,200

64,000–64,100

64,500

Today the Nikkei rose to 64,643 at the open.

In other words,

64,100 and 64,500 were both broken through at once

.

This move was quite close to the bullish scenario envisioned yesterday.

However, afterward it was pulled back toward around 64,000.

Ultimately it closed at 64,136.

Therefore, the conclusion is,

A recovery to 64,000 was achieved.
But 64,500 could not be sustained.

That is the assessment.

The market has improved overall.

However,

it is still premature to declare a resumption of the uptrend.

We will maintain this view.

The biggest driver today is the FOMC outcome

In this FOMC, the Fed raised the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points.

The policy rate thus became

3.75–4.00%

.

Because the rate hike itself had already been heavily priced in by the market, the shock of the decision was limited.

However, the Federal Reserve’s messaging afterward was important for the market.

What the market watches is

whether there will be another rate hike rather than this rate hike

.

If fears of further hikes intensify,

U.S. rates rise
↓
Tech/NASDAQ semiconductor stocks fall
↓
upward pressure on the Nikkei average diminishes

If, conversely, the stance toward further hikes becomes cautious,

gains in autos
machinery
electrical machinery

and other export-related stocks would be supported.

Today, the background for TOPIX outperforming the Nikkei average includes such yen depreciation effects as well.

However,

it is not a simple market where yen weakness directly lifts the Nikkei average.

The reason lies in semiconductor stocks.

Semiconductors capped the Nikkei’s gains

Today, the Nikkei was weighed down by

Advantest
Tokyo Electron
TDK
Ibiden
Kioxia

and others.

In other words,

even though advancers exceeded decliners, the Nikkei average rose only by 213 points.

This is due to semiconductor stocks.

Looking only at the Nikkei average gives the impression that gains are heavy at the top.

But looking at TOPIX and the number of advancers shows that

there is widespread buying across the Japanese market.

Today, too,

the Nikkei average is not equal to the overall Japan stock market

and this is important to keep in mind.

Continued shift of funds into value stocks

Buying was broad across many sectors today.

However, some high-priced AI and semiconductor stocks were weak.

This is part of a recent trend,

funds moving from growth to value and domestic-demand stocks

.

Compared with markets where only a few large tech stocks drive the index,

it is healthier for the market when buying broadens to many sectors.

This is a positive sign.

Oil’s decline also a tailwind

Oil prices also fell from their highs.

In recent days,

Oil price high
↓
Inflation concerns
↓
Rising interest rates
↓
Equity declines

so the oil price decline eases one negative factor for markets.

Japan is a net energy importer.

Therefore lower oil prices are beneficial in terms of

corporate costs
trade balance
prices

also.

But U.S. rates remain high

Meanwhile, U.S. long-term rates remain high.

If high rates persist,

AI
semiconductors
high-PE, high-growth stocks

face headwinds.

Today’s weakness in Advantest and Tokyo Electron is related to this interest-rate issue.

For the Nikkei average to rise meaningfully from here,

a rebound in semiconductor stocks is needed.

This is crucial given the index structure of the Nikkei.

And tomorrow is the Bank of Japan meeting

The FOMC has passed.

But the next big event for Japanese stocks is

the BoJ policy meeting on September 18

.

The market has been pricing in further rate hikes.

However, what matters is not the act of raising rates itself.

What the market watches most is

how Governor Ueda discusses the pace of future hikes

.

If he makes hawkish comments,

yen strengthens
↓
export stocks sell-off
↓
Nikkei declines

.\u00a0

yen weakness continues
↓
export stock buying
↓
Nikkei rise

is possible.

Important line for tomorrow ① 64,000

First to watch is

64,000

.

Today’s close was 64,136.

If tomorrow also holds above 64,000,

it can be judged that the market moved to a higher price band from the 63,000s.

Conversely, if it breaks 64,000 and cannot recover above it,

today’s gains may have been a temporary buy surge.

Important line for tomorrow ② 64,650

Today’s high was

64,643.58

.

Tomorrow this level is the first upper resistance.

Today, right after the open, it rose to the 64,600s but was then sold off.

In other words,

there is selling pressure around 64,600–64,700

.

If this is breached,

next up is

65,000

.

Can 65,000 be broken?

65,000 has been an important line since September 8.

If after tomorrow’s BoJ announcement 65,000 is breached,

the correction after the September 8 plunge may have largely run its course.

If, on the other hand, it is again rejected at 65,000,

the market remains in a range.

Downside line 63,800

Today’s low was

63,824.56

.

If tomorrow it breaks below 64,000, first watch 63,800.

If that also breaks,

63,200–63,000

are possible again.

Three scenarios for September 18

Bullish scenario

Even after BoJ, the dollar/yen stays around 155–156.

Nikkei advances beyond 64,650.

In this case,

to around 65,000–65,300

is expected.

If semiconductor stocks such as Advantest and Tokyo Electron see a rebound, the gain could be larger.

Neutral scenario

A range of 64,000–64,700.

Many investors want to assess the policy as a whole, so the direction is hard to determine.

This is the central scenario for now.

Bearish scenario

BoJ becomes more hawkish than expected.

Yen strengthens rapidly, dollar/yen drops toward 154.

In this case,

break below 63,800,

then 63,200–63,000

becomes likely.

Nikkei average forecast range for September 18

As of now,

63,200–65,300

is expected.

Wider than usual.

Reason is the

BoJ Monetary Policy Decision

.

Not only immediately after the announcement, but also Governor Ueda’s press conference could move the forex market considerably.

Therefore tomorrow,

more important than the opening price is

whether 64,000 can be maintained after BoJ

.

What today’s market showed

The most important fact today was

the Nikkei rose 213 points, yet more than 80% of stocks rose

.

In other words,

the Japanese market as a whole was stronger than the Nikkei index alone suggested.

On the other hand,

semiconductor stocks were weak,

and the early sharp gains were pared.

The overall assessment today is

the market as a whole is strong.
However, the upper level of the Nikkei is still heavy.

Yes.

Conclusion from an analyst’s perspective

Today the Nikkei average continued to rise.

It recovered into the 64,000 range.

This is positive.

However,

it rose to 64,643 but could not maintain that level.

This remains a point of caution.

Meanwhile,

The current view is,

“The index is still heavy, but the market overall is strong.”

Tomorrow,

64,000

64,650

63,800

the BoJ.

how much Governor Ueda hints at further hikes.

the real test comes after the BoJ decision.