[September 16 Analysis Report] Breakthrough of USD/JPY past 155 is the key; USD/JPY tops and must-aim for sell on rally?

Hello, this is Leo.

This time,Market analysis as of September 16, 2026will be summarized.

Today’s market focus is most important,

USD/JPY has been in an uptrend lately, and currently the 155 level is a very critical battleground.

For me,

whether we can definitively break above 155

is,

not only crucial for USD/JPY but also for the whole dollar-cross space including EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

If USD/JPY clears 155 yen, the upside may accelerate

At present, USD/JPY is in a short-term stronger uptrend.

In particular,

might push it higher to another level.

155 yen is not just a round number; it is a price area that has been clearly in focus in recent price action.

Once this is broken,

could coincide.

Therefore,

to consider.

However, be cautious around 155

In other words, the battle is currently whether 155 will be broken or not.

If repeatedly rejected here or if a lower high forms on the hourly chart, there is a possibility of a big pullback.

So,

instead of simply

“buy because it’s going up,”

before taking action.

If the pattern looks like this, it becomes much easier to expect higher moves.

Crosses are basically biased to the downside

On the other hand, dollar crosses like EUR/USD and GBP/USD are currently priced for a downside move.

In particular, for GBP/USD,the previously watched rising-support line has been broken, making technical buying conditions less favorable.

EUR/USD has also been sold from the highs, and the current flow tends to favor a short position.

I think this is the situation.

Always verify the inverse correlation between USD/JPY and dollar crosses

However, what’s crucial here is the relationship between USD/JPY and dollar crosses

.

When USD/JPY rises strongly, generally it indicates stronger dollar buying.

If that is the case,

This is a common pattern.

Conversely, if USD/JPY stalls near 155 and begins to fall, dollar crosses may see buying interest.

In other words, don’t just trade crosses in isolation; always check how USD/JPY handles 155 as a package.

Current market is easier to view with USD/JPY on the axis

Regarding the current market, I keep things simple.

So, now it’s acceptable to look at USD/JPY first rather than crosses.

Note on FOMC today

And today there is a potential for a major market move due toFOMC.

What matters is not only the policy rate outcome, but also what the market has largely priced in.

If the market expects continued rate hikes,

will largely drive actual price movement.

If the stance remains aggressive for further hikes, dollar buying may accelerate.

In that case,

is a likely flow.

Conversely, if future hikes are approached with caution, a dollar sell-off could occur.

BOJ moves are also important for USD/JPY

Additionally, since a BoJ event is near, yen moves cannot be ignored.

If the BoJ is more hawkish than the market expects, yen may appreciate, potentially stopping USD/JPY around 155.

If not as hawkish as the market expects,

could become more likely.

My scenario for today

Don’t force trades before the FOMC

Today I want to point out one important thing.

Before the FOMC, price action can stall or move abruptly due to position adjustments.

So even if directions are visible, there is no need to force positions.

This is very important today.

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