Dollar/Yen reached 156 as expected. Result shows a long bias in the 153 yen area

Dollar/yen rose from the 153 yen level that I had viewed as a rebound zone and reached the expected 156 yen.

It briefly fell below 153 yen to the 152 yen area, but then quickly reversed.

As I wrote in the previous article,

"Even if it breaks below 153 yen, you don't have to abandon the long scenario just because of that."

This is exactly how the movement turned out.

It broke 153 yen. But the long scenario did not collapse

In the previous article, I viewed the 153 yen in the low-to-mid range as the rebound zone.

However, I did not decide that 153 yen was a definite bottom.

After a strong drop, there are times when the price temporarily breaks through the support band, triggering stop-losses, and then returns right after.

This time, dollar/yen temporarily broke 153 yen and fell to the 152 yen area.

If you looked at only this, it would seem to go further down.

However, afterward it could not continue to make new lows and recovered from the 153 yen area. From there, the rebound began.

What matters is not whether it broke through.

It is where the price returns to after breaking through.

Because it immediately recovered the 153 yen area this time, there was no moment to discard the long scenario.

Buyback after the drop from the 160s

First, please look at the current 1-hour chart.

Dollar/yen fell sharply from the 160s to the 152s in a short period.

While it was falling, everywhere it looked like shorts were the right path.

If it rebounded a little, it would be sold again, and if it made a new low, you would want to push lower.

However, the more the selling becomes one-sided, the bigger the rebound when buying returns will be.

What I was aiming for was not to hit the bottom perfectly.

It was to capture the rebound that came after a sharp drop in a short period.

As a result, the dollar/yen rebounded from the 152s to the 156s by more than about 3 yen.

Reached the anticipated 156 yen

Even after rebounding from the 153 yen area, there were several pullbacks in the middle.

In the 154 yen range, the upside was heavy, and around 155 yen there were fine fluctuations.

It did not rise in a straight line.

Nevertheless, it continued to rise with higher lows, and eventually reached the 156 yen level I had in mind.

Prediction came true.

You can say anything in hindsight.

So I think there is value in stating my market view in advance and that it moved in line with that scenario.

However, I am not trying to boast about hitting it.

What I want to convey most this time is that breaking below once does not mean you have to discard the scenario.

Not at the moment of the break, but after looking at what happens next

If I had dismissed the long view the moment it broke below 153 yen, I would not have captured this rebound.

Conversely, if I had assumed it would absolutely rise and placed a large lot, I might not have endured the drop to the 152s.

That’s why in the last article I wrote not to aim for a bottom with a single point and to scale in with smaller lots.

In markets, even when the direction is right, you can be shaken out by intraday moves.

It’s not enough to just predict.

You need to size positions so that you can maintain them within the expected price movement range.

You should not add to buys because you feel emotional when prices go down.

How far down do you expect?
Under what conditions do you discard the scenario?
How far back do you need to retrace to take profits?

Decide these before entering.

Buying on dips and reckless averaging down are different things.

Reached 156 yen. There is no reason to go long from here

The anticipated target has been reached.

There is no longer a reason to go long here.

In the 153 yen area, it was easier to aim for the rebound relative to downside risk.

However, with the rise to 156 yen, conditions are not the same as before.

If you chase a long after a big rebound, you may end up grabbing a higher price this time.

When market sense is correct, you want to chase that direction for as long as possible.

But thinking of going long at 153 yen and going long at 156 yen are entirely different trades.

The job of going long is finished here.

From here, I go short.

And see how far I can pull it.

Should I hold long with the expectation that this is the top of this century?

Summary

Dollar/yen rose from the 153 yen rebound zone that I had anticipated and reached the expected 156 yen.

It briefly broke 153 yen, but since it quickly returned the price, the long scenario did not collapse.

Look at where it returns after the break, not just the moment of the break.

Do not try to hit the bottom with a single point; enter with a size that can withstand the intermediate dips.

This time, this way of thinking functioned well as a trade.

And since it reached the target, I do not intend to keep following in the same direction.

It reached the expected 156 yen.

From here, switch your viewpoint and aim for the next price movement.

【Nothing else is needed now】

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