What you should decide first in FX is not the "entry conditions."
When you start FX, most people first study “where to enter.”
Moving averages.
Horizontal lines.
Chart patterns.
Indicators.
Economic indicators.
And,
“Buy when this pattern appears.”
“Sell when this breaks.”
that are the entry conditions people look for.
For a long time, I also looked for the “reason to enter” in that way.
But after trading FX for a while, I think the opposite may have been the correct starting point.
Before asking “where to enter,” decide “when not to trade.”
Even this alone can greatly reduce unnecessary trades.
Just because the market is moving doesn’t mean you need to trade
FX moves almost every day on weekdays.
If you open a chart, somewhere will always be going up or down.
Then,
“What should I buy today?”
“Is there a chance somewhere?”
and you’ll want to search.
But,
what you can trade and what you should trade are different things.
Just because a convenience store is open 24 hours doesn’t mean you need to shop 24 hours.
FX is the same.
Just because the market is open doesn’t mean you have to participate every day.
Set “don’t do” conditions first
For example, if I were to set conditions like this.
There is an important economic indicator.
The market is more volatile than usual.
I don’t want to hold positions over the weekend.
I’m sleep-deprived and my judgment is impaired.
I want to recover yesterday’s loss.
I’m anxious.
I’m just opening charts because I have time.
In such times, before thinking about whether the market will go up or down,
“Today I won’t do it.”
and decide that.
The point isn’t to look for days when profits seem likely, but tosee whether the conditions are right for you to participate..
There’s no need to jump into the rough seas
This is a bit similar to surfing.
Just because you came to the sea doesn’t mean you must go into the water.
The waves are too big.
The wind is strong.
The tide is not favorable.
My current skill level would be dangerous.
If you think so, you don’t have to enter that day.
However in FX,
“I opened the chart, so I’ll trade.”
“I have time today, so I’ll trade.”
“I’ll make up for yesterday’s loss today.”
such things happen often.
In fact, it might be the other way around.
Align yourself with the market that suits you, rather than forcing the market to fit you.
News doesn’t have to be read only to “make predictions”
When you look at economic news,
“If this number, the dollar will rise, I think.”
“If interest rates become this, the yen will fall, perhaps.”
and you want to forecast.
But there is another use for news.
“Today’s uncertainty seems higher, so I’ll hold off.”
as a factor for decision-making.
You don’t have to predict the direction.
If you determine there’s a high risk, you can even discard the day entirely.
“Doing nothing” is also a legitimate judgment
In FX,
Buy.
Sell.
We tend to focus on these two.
But there is actually one more.
Do nothing.
Opening a chart doesn’t mean you have to decide.
If you don’t understand, it’s okay to remain uncertain.
If conditions are bad, you don’t have to trade that day.
Even if the market moves greatly on a day you didn’t trade, that isn’t a loss.
As long as your money hasn’t decreased, you haven’t lost in the market for that day.
Conditions for avoiding losses matter more than conditions for winning
When studying FX, the mindset often shifts toward “how can I win.”
But,
“Where to enter.”
“What to buy.”
“Next will be up or down.”
instead of that, you might also consider
“Do I really need to trade today?”
and think about it.
Don’t trade on dangerous days.
Don’t trade on days you don’t understand.
Don’t trade on days you’re anxious.
Don’t trade when you’re trying to recover.
Rather than increasing entry conditions,
increase the “don’t do” conditions.
I believe that approach brings you closer to the goal of “not losing in FX.”