2026.9.16 "Nikkei average today’s recap and next week's forecast"
【September 16】 Nikkei average rebounds for the first time in 4 trading days, closes at a high. Confirming a floor at 63,000 yen, next will it break 64,000 yen
The Nikkei Stock Average on September 16 closed at63,923.00 yen, up 438.90 yenfrom the previous day.
The gain was 0.69%.
The opening price was 63,672.13 yen.
The low was 63,209.92 yen.
And the high was,
63,923.00 yen
the same as the closing price.
In other words today,
“a high close”
was the outcome.
The Nikkei had fallen for four trading days up to yesterday.
In the first half of today’s session it briefly fell to 63,209 yen.
However, the trend then reversed.
From the morning low, buying gradually recovered, and in the afternoon the upside expanded.
Ultimately it ended at that day’s high.
I view today’s market as
“not yet confirming a bottom, but confirming renewed buying interest in the 63,000 yen area”
today.
First, verify yesterday’s forecast
In yesterday’s article,
63,000 yen
64,100 yen
62,700 yen
were cited as three important levels.
Today’s low was 63,209.92 yen.
In other words,
63,000 yen held.
Yesterday it fell to 63,067 yen before rebounding.
And today it was sold down to 63,209 yen again before rebounding.
Thus for two days in a row,
there was buying in the lower- to mid-63,000 yen range
.
On the other hand, it did not reach the higher line of 64,100 yen as expected.
Today’s high was 63,923 yen.
Just 177 yen short.
Therefore, since yesterday, the view was revised to,
“the lower-63,000 yen support has strengthened, but a breakout above 64,000–64,100 yen is still required for a sustained upturn”
to
Today’s main point is the “high close”
Today’s gain of 438 yen is notable.
But more importantly,
the close equals the high
was the case.
In markets, even a 400 yen rise has different implications if
it rises in the morning then ends with selling, versus
it starts weak in the morning but buys through the afternoon and ends at the high.
The latter is more meaningful.
Today it was the latter.
In the morning it fell to 63,209 yen.
From there to the close of 63,923 yen,
a roughly 713 yen reversal
occurred,that is, even toward the close it was not pressured by selling,
buyers remained in control.
This behavior is clearly different from yesterday.
The overall market was strong today
It wasn’t only the Nikkei that rose today.
The TOPIX rose as well,
up 24.56 points to 4,061.72
and gained 0.61%.
Furthermore, on the TSE Prime Market,
advancing stocks accounted for 67.4%
declining stocks 29.0%
In other words, today’s market did not rise on a few high-priced stocks alone.
Buy interest spread across a wide range of issues.
This is a major difference from yesterday.
In recent days,
the Nikkei rose but the breadth was weak.
Alternatively,
the Nikkei fell while the TOPIX remained strong.
There was considerable divergence among indices.
Today,
both the Nikkei and TOPIX rose, with about two-thirds of issues advancing.
I view the breadth as the most straightforward rebound in days.
Today’s star was the reversal in semiconductor stocks
Among individual stocks,
Tokyo Electron
Applied Materials
TDK
Shin-Etsu Chemical
Fujikura
Murata Manufacturing
SCREEN
and others rose.
It is important that the semiconductor and electronic component names that led the decline in recent days saw recapture demand.
Until yesterday, the market followed a flow of
U.S. rates rising
↓
selling of high-PER stocks
↓
AI and semiconductor stocks fell
↓
Nikkei declines
which was very strong.
Today that flow weakened for a while.
U.S. long-term rates stalled, and crude oil prices settled slightly from highs,
which led to a move to “buy back growth stocks that had been oversold.”
This is how I view the move.
However,
it is still too early to say semiconductor stocks have returned to a full-fledged uptrend.
Tonight there is an FOMC meeting.
On the other hand, SoftBank Group underperformed
Today’s notable feature was that
SoftBank Group declined
as well.
Kioxia was weak too, and AI-related stocks did not all rise at once.
This is very important.
In current AI-related stocks,
“buy anything AI”
is no longer the rule of the market.
It is better to think that this is a market where you select stocks based on earnings, valuation, and business fundamentals.
Even when looking at the Nikkei,
SoftBank Group
Applied Materials
Tokyo Electron
should not be treated as a single group; you need to look at each stock’s movements individually.
Dollar/Yen around 155 yen
As of 3:00 p.m. today, the dollar-yen rate was
around 155.08 yen
.
Compared with yesterday, that is a weaker yen direction, which is a tailwind for exporters.
However the current forex moves are not driven by simple Japanese domestic factors alone.
The biggest factor is,