Overview of today's major cryptocurrency market movements and trends

As for the overall movement of the crypto asset market, there was a temporary rebound or rise in the early morning today, butwith the results of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the vote on a notable regulatory bill imminent, a cautious market mood spread, gradually shifting to a softer trend. Currently, the total market capitalization is fluctuating around about 2.6 trillion to 2.8 trillion dollars, and the market continues to face selling pressure on the upside.

Detailed status of major assets

・Bitcoin (BTC)

Today's price range: around 76,000–78,000 dollars

Today's movement: There were moments when it briefly surpassed the 79,000-dollar level, but subsequently was pushed down by selling and pulled back. It showed a strong tone in the morning, but over time it shifted to a downtrend.

Change versus last week: slightly negative to flat (roughly -1% to -2% decline)

Bitcoin daily chart

・Ethereum (ETH)

Today's price range: around 2,450–2,520 dollars

Today's movement: Following Bitcoin's price trend, it softened from the morning highs. It remains in a narrow range around 2,500 dollars.

Change versus last week: almost flat

Ethereum daily chart

・BNB

Today's price range: around 720 dollars

Today's movement: No major trend, staying within small fluctuations throughout the day.

Change versus last week: somewhat weak development (reports indicate around -3% decline)

・XRP

Today's price range: around 1.40–1.42 dollars

Today's movement：In a broadly soft market, relatively strong trend was observed, recording a gain of several percentage points.

Change versus last week: remains in a positive trend

・Solana (SOL)

Today's price range: around 100–102 dollars

Today's movement: small rise followed by a range-bound movement.

Change versus last week: somewhat weak movement

From a medium-to-long-term perspective, Bitcoin is undergoing a healthy price correction within a range of 76,000–80,000 dollars, following the rally in August (from around 60,000 dollars to over 80,000). Ethereum likewise, after a strong rebound from around 1,880 dollars in August, has been trading steadily in the 2,400–2,550 dollar range.

Main factors and background driving today’s market

・Policy meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FOMC) on 9/15–9/16

There is growing vigilance for further rate hikes and tighter financial conditions,with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields approaching 5% as a high level. This environment tends to exert selling pressure across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

・Senate vote on the CLARITY Act

There were moments when buying led the way on expectations of the bill passing, butnews reports suggesting counterproposals and lower chances of passage dulled market optimism. In particular, assets whose prices are sensitive to regulatory developments, such as XRP, respond sharply to these reports.

・Other market-moving factors

AI-related stock adjustments, global energy price increases, and forced liquidations (stop-outs) of oversized leverage positions in the derivatives market have all overlapped to amplify short-term price volatility.

In summary of the current market environment, there is a fierce tug-of-war between buyers and sellers: buying on expectations of clearer regulation and selling on rate hike concerns and political uncertainty.

Detailed price trends since last week

・Late August to early September trends

Bitcoin surged strongly on a powerful rebound, temporarily breaking the 80,000-dollar threshold. Ethereum similarly recovered to over 2,500 dollars.

The rally abated, entering a consolidation phase at high levels. Bitcoin ranged between 76,000–80,000 dollars, Ethereum between 2,400–2,550 dollars.

Fund outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and expectations of Fed rate hikes added downward pressure. On Monday (the 14th) there was a brief rebound, but on Tuesday the market returned to a cautious stance.

Technically, the current trend does not indicate a complete end to the bullish cycle; rather, a temporary pullback following a surge. A key near-term milestone is whether Bitcoin can stay above or fall below the 76,000-dollar support line.

Bitcoin spot ETF fund flow (about one week)

U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of about 463 million dollars during the period from 9/8 to 9/11, temporarily halting the previous three-week streak of inflows.

・September 8: net outflow around -46.6 million dollars

・September 9: net outflow around -1.20 hundred million dollars

・September 10: net outflow around -283 million dollars (the largest outflow day of the week)

・September 11: net outflow around -13.3 million dollars

・September 14 (Mon): net inflow around +160 million dollars (IBIT led inflows)

Over the last five trading days, the total net outflow is about -303 million dollars. However, for the entire month of September, inflows still lead outflows. Market participants largely view this as temporary risk-off behavior (position reductions) ahead of the FOMC and rate decision, rather than a complete withdrawal by institutions. The primary drivers of outflows included funds like ARKB and GBTC, with a strong push from BlackRock-managed IBIT on Monday.

Today's notable altcoin movements

・XRP (Ripple)

Rising on expectations surrounding the CLARITY Act and saw gains of several percent, with some instances pushing toward around 1.42 dollars.

・Zcash (ZEC)

News today showed a sharp rise of about +7–10% compared with the previous day, with prices quickly moving to around 1,140–1,160 dollars. Trading volume also surged, drawing investor attention for its emphasis on anonymity and privacy features.

・Stellar (XLM)

As PayFi sector-wide buying continued, it rose solidly by about +8% in tandem.

・Uniswap (UNI)

Supported by buying in the DeFi sector, it rose by around +7%.

Overall sector trends showed PayFi (payments-related) moving most strongly, with some assets tied to real-world asset tokenization (RWA) and certain DeFi tokens also performing solidly. On the other hand, some tokens like Filecoin (FIL) faced selling pressure. Also, in the micro small-cap coin market, Zclassic surged over +200%, but its trading volume is extremely thin and highly speculative, so its price movement should be viewed as a rough guide.

Summary for today

Today's crypto market faced two major events—FOMC rate decisions and CLARITY Act voting—leading Bitcoin and Ethereum to shift from high-range consolidation to softer trends. ETF markets showed outflows last week, with some signs of recovery on Monday. Among altcoins, XRP and ZEC stood out due to idiosyncratic factors and sector strength. The direction of the market going forward will become clearer depending on tomorrow’s FOMC outcome and the progress of the CLARITY Act.

・Macro economy and market status

U.S. 10-year yield reached 4.856%, a high not seen since October 2023. Although the U.S. Treasury conducted a $6 billion buyback of Treasuries, yields could not be contained, and crude oil trades near $97 per barrel while Bitcoin (BTC) remains around $77,000.

・Morgan Stanley's FX outlook

Morgan Stanley's financial strategists forecast that the Japanese yen could fall to 1 USD = 163 yen again. They analyze that the recent yen strength is largely a temporary reversal of carry positions, setting a target level of 163 yen per dollar and a stop-loss at 150 yen.

・Impact of the Fed rate decision on markets

The Fed's rate decision is imminent, with the market pricing in nearly a 93% probability of a rate hike. Since the first approval and listing of the U.S. spot BTC ETF, this rate-hike cycle is expected to exert pressure on risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, while dampening optimistic expectations for CLARITY Act progress.

・Bybit CEO's market participant analysis

Bybit's CEO noted that,“individual investor participation is about 30% lower than its peak.”However, he regards this as a normal part of market cycles. Regarding what could trigger the next bull run, rather than meme coins leading the previous cycle,he anticipates that AI-related assets could drive the next cycle.

・SEC moves to reclassify crypto assets

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reportedly plans to reclassify 16 major crypto assets, including BTC, ETH, and XRP, as “digital commodities.” If classified as digital commodities, jurisdiction would shift to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). This would lower the regulatory hurdles under securities laws and significantly widen the potential ETF universe in the future. Not all assets would be immediately ETF-ready, but the pool of approved candidates would expand substantially.

◯ Details on Bitcoin-related news

・Arthur Hayes warns of an AI bubble burst and a 2028 financial crisis

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warned that if profitability in AI investment becomes questioned, a major financial crisis could arrive around 2028 surpassing the 2008 Lehman shock. He also suggests that governments would print vast amounts of fiat currency to avert the crisis, thus benefiting Bitcoin (BTC), which has a fixed supply, as a safe haven asset the most.

・Arthur Hayes on “capital misallocation phase” in the AI industry

He further notes that the AI industry has entered a phase of capital misallocation due to excessive investment, with massive funds flowing into building large data centers while numerous loss-making projects proliferate. He argues that governments expanding central bank balance sheets to cover these bad investments would raise the relative value of gold and Bitcoin.

・Hayes's Japan-originated scenario of massive capital movement

He also presents a global capital movement scenario starting with the Japanese market.If a full reversal of yen carry trades progresses, large institutional investors such as Japanese pension funds would sell overseas assets and bring funds back home (yen appreciation),potentially forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve to provide liquidity. This would further support his earlier argument that AI-driven tailwinds could boost crypto assets.【Premium subscription information】In the premium subscription area, we offer deeper, value-added, individual-asset analyses.“Bitcoin and Ethereum alone won't be enough; invest in the next big gain.”“Understand the fundamental flow and future of the crypto market, and surely ride that wave.”If this is how you think, please consider subscribing. Ongoing high-quality research is the key to great success.(This report has been delivering market-leading insights since its launch in 2016)

【Premium subscription information】

In the premium subscription area, we offer deeper, value-added, individual-asset analyses.

“Bitcoin and Ethereum alone won't be enough; invest in the next big gain.”

“Understand the fundamental flow and future of the crypto market, and surely ride that wave.”

If this is how you think, please consider subscribing. Ongoing high-quality research is the key to great success.

(This report has been delivering market-leading insights since its launch in 2016)

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis (September 15th)